InCred Equities - VRL Logistics Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	28,886	31,761	34,504	37,990
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	3,934	5,509	5,857	6,096
Net Profit (Rsm)	889	1,556	1,698	1,786
Core EPS (Rs)	10.1	17.8	19.4	20.4
Core EPS Growth	(42.5%)	76.6%	9.2%	5.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	47.86	27.21	24.92	23.70
DPS (Rs)		6.0	7.0	7.0
Dividend Yield		1.24%	1.45%	1.45%
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.54	9.42	8.48	7.75
P/FCFE (x)	12.08	28.85	15.00	13.99
Net Gearing	113.6%	91.2%	63.6%	38.8%
P/BV (x)	4.47	4.03	3.66	3.32
ROE	9.2%	15.6%	15.4%	14.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	28,886	31,761	34,504	37,990
Gross Profit	9,219	11,313	12,175	13,351
Operating EBITDA	3,934	5,509	5,857	6,096
Depreciation And Amortisation	(2,162)	(2,547)	(2,712)	(2,844)
Operating EBIT	1,773	2,962	3,145	3,253
Financial Income/(Expense)	(568)	(831)	(819)	(806)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	1,205	2,131	2,326	2,446
Exceptional Items	5
Pre-tax Profit	1,210	2,131	2,326	2,446
Taxation	(321)	(575)	(628)	(661)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	889	1,556	1,698	1,786
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	889	1,556	1,698	1,786
Recurring Net Profit	885	1,556	1,698	1,786
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	885	1,556	1,698	1,786

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	3,934	5,509	5,857	6,096
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(149)	265	(88)	(104)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	5
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(568)	(831)	(819)	(806)
Tax Paid	(321)	(575)	(628)	(661)
Cashflow From Operations	2,901	4,367	4,322	4,526
Capex	(2,988)	(2,900)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	150
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(2,838)	(2,900)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	3,456
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(1,186)		0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid		(525)	(612)	(612)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(2,897)	236
Cash Flow From Financing	(626)	(289)	(612)	(612)
Total Cash Generated	(563)	1,178	2,209	2,414
Free Cashflow To Equity	3,520	1,467	2,822	3,026
Free Cashflow To Firm	842	2,418	3,773	3,977

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	190	1,367	3,577	5,990
Total Debtors	885	953	1,035	1,140
Inventories	412	635	690	760
Total Other Current Assets	602	671	717	776
Total Current Assets	2,088	3,626	6,019	8,666
Fixed Assets	19,232	19,350	18,138	16,795
Total Investments	9	9	9	9
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	810	810	810	810
Total Non-current Assets	20,052	20,169	18,958	17,614
Short-term Debt	571	10,934	10,934	10,934
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities	1,076	1,701	1,796	1,926
Total Current Liabilities	1,647	12,635	12,730	12,860
Total Long-term Debt	10,363
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	10,363
Total Provisions	672	672	672	672
Total Liabilities	12,682	13,307	13,402	13,532
Shareholders Equity	9,458	10,489	11,574	12,748
Minority Interests
Total Equity	9,458	10,489	11,574	12,748

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	9.1%	10.0%	8.6%	10.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(2.0%)	40.0%	6.3%	4.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.6%	17.3%	17.0%	16.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(122.84)	(109.37)	(84.11)	(56.52)
BVPS (Rs)	108.13	119.91	132.33	145.74
Gross Interest Cover	2.28	3.11	3.31	3.42
Effective Tax Rate	26.6%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio		33.7%	36.1%	34.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	10.75	10.56	10.51	10.45
Inventory Days	8.72	9.35	10.83	10.74
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)	10.6%	14.2%	15.2%	16.6%
ROCE (%)	10.2%	14.3%	14.5%	14.3%
Return On Average Assets	7.1%	10.4%	10.3%	10.1%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1500 shivam.agarwal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg