InCred Equities - VRL Logistics Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	26,485	28,539	30,819	33,445
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	4,017	3,813	4,020	4,363
Net Profit (Rsm)	3,232	865	815	914
Core EPS (Rs)	17.5	9.8	9.3	10.4
Core EPS Growth	(0.2%)	(43.8%)	(5.3%)	12.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	14.96	55.61	58.71	52.39
DPS (Rs)	5.0	5.0	6.0	7.0
Dividend Yield	0.91%	0.91%	1.10%	1.28%
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.71	15.03	14.23	13.10
P/FCFE (x)	23.66	259.15	129.55	69.68
Net Gearing	68.9%	96.2%	94.9%	91.4%
P/BV (x)	4.95	5.00	4.85	4.71
ROE	19.0%	8.9%	8.4%	9.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	26,485	28,539	30,819	33,445
Gross Profit	8,495	9,023	10,204	11,166
Operating EBITDA	4,017	3,813	4,020	4,363
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,591)	(2,117)	(2,374)	(2,608)
Operating EBIT	2,425	1,696	1,646	1,755
Financial Income/(Expense)	(400)	(543)	(545)	(520)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	2,025	1,153	1,102	1,235
Exceptional Items	2,208
Pre-tax Profit	4,234	1,153	1,102	1,235
Taxation	(1,002)	(288)	(286)	(321)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	3,232	865	815	914
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	3,232	865	815	914
Recurring Net Profit	1,546	865	815	914
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	1,546	865	815	914

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	4,017	3,813	4,020	4,363
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(325)	204	(70)	(85)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	2,208
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(400)	(543)	(545)	(520)
Tax Paid	(1,002)	(288)	(286)	(321)
Cashflow From Operations	4,499	3,186	3,119	3,437
Capex	(4,140)	(5,000)	(2,750)	(2,750)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	(150)
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(4,290)	(5,000)	(2,750)	(2,750)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,834	2,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	2,138	(613)		0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(442)	(437)	(525)	(612)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3,129)	384
Cash Flow From Financing	401	1,334	(525)	(612)
Total Cash Generated	610	(480)	(155)	75
Free Cashflow To Equity	2,043	186	369	687
Free Cashflow To Firm	752	(1,051)	1,156	1,474

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	752	272	117	191
Total Debtors	817	856	925	1,003
Inventories	528	571	616	669
Total Other Current Assets	541	588	627	672
Total Current Assets	2,638	2,287	2,284	2,535
Fixed Assets	15,197	17,697	18,072	18,215
Total Investments	159	159	159	159
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	922	922	922	922
Total Non-current Assets	16,279	18,778	19,154	19,296
Short-term Debt	281	9,478	9,478	9,478
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors
Other Current Liabilities	1,220	1,553	1,635	1,727
Total Current Liabilities	1,500	11,030	11,113	11,205
Total Long-term Debt	7,197
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	7,197
Total Provisions	461	461	461	461
Total Liabilities	9,159	11,492	11,575	11,666
Shareholders Equity	9,758	9,574	9,864	10,165
Minority Interests
Total Equity	9,758	9,574	9,864	10,165

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	11.0%	7.8%	8.0%	8.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	1.1%	(5.1%)	5.4%	8.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.2%	13.4%	13.0%	13.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(76.13)	(105.25)	(107.03)	(106.17)
BVPS (Rs)	110.46	109.45	112.77	116.22
Gross Interest Cover	4.46	2.22	2.09	2.23
Effective Tax Rate	23.7%	25.0%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	43.2%	50.6%	64.4%	67.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	10.26	10.70	10.54	10.52
Inventory Days	10.01	10.27	10.51	10.53
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)	19.6%	10.1%	8.6%	9.0%
ROCE (%)	17.0%	10.3%	9.6%	10.1%
Return On Average Assets	8.7%	7.0%	6.4%	6.6%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg