* price as on 19 Nov 2024
Financial
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm) 32,820 44,772 51,444 61,346
Operating EBITDA (Rsm) 3,194 4,558 5,162 6,340
Net Profit (Rsm) 817 1,548 2,015 2,617
Core EPS (Rs) 7.8 14.7 19.1 24.9
Core EPS Growth 124.0% 89.6% 30.1% 29.9%
FD Core P/E (x) 68.19 35.97 27.64 21.29
DPS (Rs) 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7
Dividend Yield 0.02% 0.08% 0.11% 0.14%
EV/EBITDA (x) 18.82 13.41 12.05 10.00
P/FCFE (x) 55.75 (40.94) 33.23 27.87
Net Gearing 49.3% 51.6% 52.6% 51.3%
P/BV (x) 6.20 5.32 4.48 3.72
ROE 9.8% 15.9% 17.6% 19.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues 32,820 44,772 51,444 61,346
Gross Profit 7,761 9,648 12,861 15,336
Operating EBITDA 3,194 4,558 5,162 6,340
Depreciation And Amortisation (525) (615) (679) (747)
Operating EBIT 2,669 3,942 4,483 5,593
Financial Income/(Expense) (1,540) (2,094) (2,031) (2,336)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. 70 77 84 93
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 86 145 158 148
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 1,285 2,070 2,694 3,498
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit 1,285 2,070 2,694 3,498
Taxation (468) (522) (679) (882)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax 817 1,548 2,015 2,617
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit 817 1,548 2,015 2,617
Recurring Net Profit 817 1,548 2,015 2,617
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 817 1,548 2,015 2,617
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
EBITDA 3,194 4,558 5,162 6,340
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital (1,005) (3,665) (1,969) (2,517)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow 66 145 158 148
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid (334) (522) (679) (882)
Cashflow From Operations 1,922 516 2,672 3,090
Capex (1,013) (1,800) (1,500) (1,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow (857) (1,232) (535) (787)
Cash Flow From Investing (1,870) (3,032) (2,035) (2,287)
Debt Raised/(repaid) 935 1,155 1,039 1,195
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 498
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid (10) (10) (10) (10)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow (1,547) (2,094) (2,031) (2,336)
Cash Flow From Financing (125) (950) (1,003) (1,151)
Total Cash Generated (73) (3,465) (365) (348)
Free Cashflow To Equity 987 (1,361) 1,676 1,998
Free Cashflow To Firm 52 (2,515) 637 803
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents 1,349 1,520 1,433 1,483
Total Debtors 7,661 8,832 10,571 12,605
Inventories 12,031 20,240 23,255 28,236
Total Other Current Assets 2,184 3,435 3,946 4,706
Total Current Assets 23,226 34,026 39,205 47,030
Fixed Assets 7,654 8,823 9,629 10,369
Total Investments 169 186 204 224
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets 399 379 398 418
Total Non-current Assets 8,221 9,387 10,230 11,011
Short-term Debt 2,764 3,317 3,815 4,387
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 12,206 13,125 14,094 16,807
Other Current Liabilities 2,592 7,360 9,161 10,925
Total Current Liabilities 17,563 23,802 27,070 32,119
Total Long-term Debt 3,008 3,610 4,151 4,774
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 1,827 1,813 1,514 1,266
Total Non-current Liabilities 4,835 5,422 5,666 6,040
Total Provisions 74 101 116 138
Total Liabilities 22,471 29,325 32,852 38,297
Shareholders Equity 8,976 10,478 12,433 14,971
Minority Interests
Total Equity 8,976 10,478 12,433 14,971
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue Growth 65.7% 36.4% 14.9% 19.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth 65.9% 42.7% 13.3% 22.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin 9.7% 10.2% 10.0% 10.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs) 42.03 51.38 62.08 72.95
BVPS (Rs) 85.29 99.56 118.14 142.25
Gross Interest Cover 1.73 1.88 2.21 2.39
Effective Tax Rate 36.4% 25.2% 25.2% 25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 1.3% 3.0% 3.0% 3.0%
Accounts Receivables Days 62.63 67.23 68.83 68.95
Inventory Days 154.12 167.68 205.73 204.24
Accounts Payables Days 131.72 131.62 128.75 122.57
ROIC (%) 13.2% 13.9% 13.7% 14.6%
ROCE (%) 20.0% 24.5% 23.7% 25.1%
Return On Average Assets 7.3% 8.3% 7.6% 8.1%

Analyst(s)

Arafat SAIYED

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

Anirvan DIVAKERA

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com