InCred Equities - Balrampur Chini Mills Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	46,659	55,937	57,510	65,700
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	5,120	7,862	5,836	8,485
Net Profit (Rsm)	2,725	4,119	2,841	5,265
Core EPS (Rs)	13.4	20.3	14.1	26.1
Core EPS Growth	(38.3%)	52.0%	(30.6%)	85.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	39.44	25.95	37.41	20.19
DPS (Rs)	0.7	1.0	0.7	1.3
Dividend Yield	0.13%	0.19%	0.13%	0.25%
EV/EBITDA (x)	23.04	14.72	19.44	13.01
P/FCFE (x)	21.41	52.54	88.30	29.34
Net Gearing	34.8%	25.8%	19.5%	9.8%
P/BV (x)	3.56	3.12	2.89	2.54
ROE	9.4%	12.8%	8.0%	13.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	46,659	55,937	57,510	65,700
Gross Profit	12,566	16,768	13,407	17,026
Operating EBITDA	5,120	7,862	5,836	8,485
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,295)	(1,664)	(1,583)	(1,501)
Operating EBIT	3,825	6,198	4,253	6,984
Financial Income/(Expense)	141	(96)	(360)	228
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,967	6,102	3,893	7,213
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,967	6,102	3,893	7,213
Taxation	(1,241)	(1,983)	(1,052)	(1,947)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	2,725	4,119	2,841	5,265
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	2,725	4,119	2,841	5,265
Recurring Net Profit	2,725	4,119	2,841	5,265
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	2,725	4,119	2,841	5,265

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	5,120	7,862	5,836	8,485
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	1,554	(4,067)	(689)	(3,590)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	141	(96)	(360)	228
Tax Paid	(1,295)	(1,664)	(1,583)	(1,501)
Cashflow From Operations	5,521	2,034	3,204	3,623
Capex	(2,500)	0	(2,000)	0
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(2,500)	0	(2,000)	0
Debt Raised/(repaid)	2,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(136)	(206)	(142)	(263)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow		2
Cash Flow From Financing	1,864	(204)	(142)	(263)
Total Cash Generated	4,884	1,831	1,062	3,359
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,021	2,034	1,204	3,623
Free Cashflow To Firm	3,507	2,871	2,032	4,158

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	3,604	5,290	6,913	9,984
Total Debtors	1,278	1,533	1,576	1,800
Inventories	20,453	24,520	25,210	28,800
Total Other Current Assets	350	420	431	493
Total Current Assets	25,685	31,762	34,130	41,076
Fixed Assets	19,584	17,921	18,337	16,836
Total Investments	1,575	1,575	1,575	1,575
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	933	1,119	1,150	1,314
Total Non-current Assets	22,093	20,615	21,063	19,725
Short-term Debt	10,654	10,654	10,654	10,654
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	3,257	3,904	4,014	4,585
Other Current Liabilities	140	168	173	197
Total Current Liabilities	14,051	14,726	14,841	15,437
Total Long-term Debt	3,442	3,442	3,442	3,442
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	3,442	3,442	3,442	3,442
Total Provisions	114	127	129	141
Total Liabilities	17,607	18,295	18,412	19,020
Shareholders Equity	30,171	34,081	36,780	41,782
Minority Interests
Total Equity	30,171	34,081	36,780	41,782

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	(3.7%)	19.9%	2.8%	14.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(26.8%)	53.5%	(25.8%)	45.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.0%	14.1%	10.1%	12.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(51.42)	(43.65)	(35.61)	(20.38)
BVPS (Rs)	147.87	168.93	182.31	207.10
Gross Interest Cover	7.86	7.41	5.13	13.04
Effective Tax Rate	31.3%	32.5%	27.0%	27.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	3.4%	3.4%	3.6%	3.6%
Accounts Receivables Days	10.35	9.17	9.86	9.38
Inventory Days	227.29	209.54	205.79	202.51
Accounts Payables Days	30.19	26.19	25.72	25.31
ROIC (%)	10.0%	15.8%	10.3%	16.4%
ROCE (%)	9.1%	13.4%	8.6%	13.1%
Return On Average Assets	8.3%	12.4%	7.9%	12.0%

(91) 22 4161 1550 nitin.awasthi@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg