InCred Equities - Thermax Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	93,235	106,965	130,490	155,427
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	7,974	9,474	11,811	14,484
Net Profit (Rsm)	6,430	6,838	8,727	10,896
Core EPS (Rs)	50.4	60.7	77.5	96.8
Core EPS Growth	25.9%	20.5%	27.6%	24.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	70.40	58.43	45.78	36.67
DPS (Rs)	10.0	11.5	14.7	18.4
Dividend Yield	0.27%	0.28%	0.28%	0.28%
EV/EBITDA (x)	50.46	42.40	34.09	27.78
P/FCFE (x)	236.83	167.07	168.76	132.76
Net Gearing	6.3%	4.3%	5.3%	4.3%
P/BV (x)	9.00	8.00	7.01	6.07
ROE	14.1%	14.5%	16.3%	17.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	93,235	106,965	130,490	155,427
Gross Profit	41,039	47,516	58,150	69,263
Operating EBITDA	7,974	9,474	11,811	14,484
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,481)	(1,517)	(1,695)	(1,812)
Operating EBIT	6,493	7,956	10,116	12,672
Financial Income/(Expense)	(876)	(1,106)	(1,242)	(1,392)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(10)	(10)	(10)	(11)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,326	2,417	2,776	3,264
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,933	9,258	11,640	14,532
Exceptional Items	755
Pre-tax Profit	8,688	9,258	11,640	14,532
Taxation	(2,258)	(2,420)	(2,913)	(3,636)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	6,430	6,838	8,727	10,896
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	6,430	6,838	8,727	10,896
Recurring Net Profit	5,872	6,838	8,727	10,896
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	5,872	6,838	8,727	10,896

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	7,974	9,474	11,811	14,484
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(4,760)	(5,431)	(1,421)	(2,561)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	1,122	1,604	1,762	2,021
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid	(1,863)	(2,420)	(2,913)	(3,636)
Cashflow From Operations	2,473	3,227	9,240	10,308
Capex	(7,185)	(608)	(2,750)	(2,750)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	2,093	(856)	(4,781)	(5,240)
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,092)	(1,463)	(7,531)	(7,990)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	4,306	628	659	692
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,128)	(1,299)	(1,658)	(2,070)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(171)	(1,054)	(699)	(928)
Cash Flow From Financing	3,008	(1,725)	(1,698)	(2,306)
Total Cash Generated	389	39	10	11
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,687	2,392	2,368	3,010
Free Cashflow To Firm	(2,619)	1,764	1,708	2,318

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	9,753	11,051	10,819	11,708
Total Debtors	21,164	24,910	30,388	36,195
Inventories	7,649	10,257	12,513	14,904
Total Other Current Assets	12,280	14,360	17,518	20,866
Total Current Assets	50,846	60,577	71,237	83,673
Fixed Assets	24,279	23,310	24,365	25,303
Total Investments	17,651	17,114	20,878	24,868
Intangible Assets	30	30	30	30
Total Other Non-Current Assets	8,724	11,017	13,049	15,543
Total Non-current Assets	50,684	51,472	58,322	65,744
Short-term Debt	4,665	4,898	5,143	5,400
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	15,329	17,583	19,663	23,421
Other Current Liabilities	24,207	26,375	32,175	38,324
Total Current Liabilities	44,200	48,856	56,981	67,145
Total Long-term Debt	7,895	8,290	8,704	9,139
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,984	2,036	2,579	3,043
Total Non-current Liabilities	9,879	10,325	11,283	12,182
Total Provisions	3,053	2,931	4,290	4,258
Total Liabilities	57,132	62,112	72,554	83,585
Shareholders Equity	44,398	49,937	57,006	65,832
Minority Interests
Total Equity	44,398	49,937	57,006	65,832

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	15.2%	14.7%	22.0%	19.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	33.4%	18.8%	24.7%	22.6%
Operating EBITDA Margin	8.6%	8.9%	9.1%	9.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(24.92)	(18.97)	(26.89)	(25.14)
BVPS (Rs)	394.25	443.43	506.20	584.57
Gross Interest Cover	7.41	7.20	8.15	9.10
Effective Tax Rate	26.0%	26.1%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.0%	16.5%	12.9%	10.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	75.92	78.61	77.34	78.18
Inventory Days	53.16	54.97	57.44	58.07
Accounts Payables Days	105.97	101.04	93.97	91.25
ROIC (%)	13.7%	14.5%	16.0%	18.1%
ROCE (%)	12.5%	13.3%	15.1%	16.8%
Return On Average Assets	6.7%	7.2%	8.0%	8.5%

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg