InCred Equities - Thermax Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	93,235	110,186	136,557	165,488
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	7,974	9,904	13,308	16,167
Net Profit (Rsm)	6,430	7,649	10,330	12,805
Core EPS (Rs)	50.4	67.9	91.7	113.7
Core EPS Growth	25.9%	34.8%	35.1%	24.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	91.91	68.20	50.49	40.73
DPS (Rs)	10.0	12.9	17.4	21.6
Dividend Yield	0.21%	0.22%	0.22%	0.22%
EV/EBITDA (x)	65.78	52.91	39.40	32.39
P/FCFE (x)	309.21	255.71	233.46	181.74
Net Gearing	6.3%	4.6%	4.5%	2.8%
P/BV (x)	11.75	10.31	8.85	7.52
ROE	14.1%	16.1%	18.9%	20.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	93,235	110,186	136,557	165,488
Gross Profit	41,039	48,800	60,854	73,746
Operating EBITDA	7,974	9,904	13,308	16,167
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,481)	(1,420)	(1,802)	(1,927)
Operating EBIT	6,493	8,484	11,506	14,240
Financial Income/(Expense)	(876)	(1,058)	(872)	(977)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(10)	(5)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,326	2,773	3,140	3,812
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,933	10,194	13,774	17,074
Exceptional Items	755
Pre-tax Profit	8,688	10,194	13,774	17,074
Taxation	(2,258)	(2,546)	(3,443)	(4,268)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	6,430	7,649	10,330	12,805
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	6,430	7,649	10,330	12,805
Recurring Net Profit	5,872	7,649	10,330	12,805
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	5,872	7,649	10,330	12,805

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	7,974	9,904	13,308	16,167
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(4,760)	(5,299)	(2,153)	(3,259)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	1,122	1,653	2,048	2,482
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid	(1,863)	(2,546)	(3,443)	(4,268)
Cashflow From Operations	2,473	3,713	9,760	11,121
Capex	(7,185)	(608)	(2,750)	(2,750)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	2,093	(1,693)	(5,435)	(6,193)
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,092)	(2,301)	(8,185)	(8,943)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	4,306	628	659	692
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,128)	(1,453)	(1,963)	(2,433)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(171)	(948)	(272)	(438)
Cash Flow From Financing	3,008	(1,774)	(1,575)	(2,178)
Total Cash Generated	389	(361)	0
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,687	2,040	2,235	2,871
Free Cashflow To Firm	(2,619)	1,412	1,575	2,178

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	9,753	10,839	11,220	12,621
Total Debtors	21,164	25,660	31,801	38,538
Inventories	7,649	10,566	13,094	15,869
Total Other Current Assets	12,280	14,792	18,332	22,216
Total Current Assets	50,846	61,857	74,447	89,244
Fixed Assets	24,279	23,310	24,258	25,081
Total Investments	17,651	17,630	21,849	26,478
Intangible Assets	30	30	30	30
Total Other Non-Current Assets	8,724	11,349	13,656	16,549
Total Non-current Assets	50,684	52,319	59,793	68,138
Short-term Debt	4,665	4,898	5,143	5,400
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	15,329	18,113	20,577	24,937
Other Current Liabilities	24,207	27,169	33,672	40,805
Total Current Liabilities	44,200	50,180	59,391	71,142
Total Long-term Debt	7,895	8,290	8,704	9,139
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,984	2,094	2,694	3,234
Total Non-current Liabilities	9,879	10,383	11,398	12,373
Total Provisions	3,053	3,019	4,490	4,534
Total Liabilities	57,132	63,582	75,279	88,049
Shareholders Equity	44,398	50,593	58,961	69,334
Minority Interests
Total Equity	44,398	50,593	58,961	69,334

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	15.2%	18.2%	23.9%	21.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	33.4%	24.2%	34.4%	21.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	8.6%	9.0%	9.7%	9.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(24.92)	(20.85)	(23.33)	(17.03)
BVPS (Rs)	394.25	449.26	523.56	615.67
Gross Interest Cover	7.41	8.02	13.20	14.57
Effective Tax Rate	26.0%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.0%	14.7%	10.9%	8.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	75.92	77.55	76.79	77.57
Inventory Days	53.16	54.15	57.04	57.62
Accounts Payables Days	105.97	99.42	93.27	90.54
ROIC (%)	13.7%	15.3%	17.9%	19.8%
ROCE (%)	12.5%	14.1%	16.8%	18.2%
Return On Average Assets	6.7%	7.8%	8.8%	9.3%

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg