InCred Equities - Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Ltd

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue (Rsm)	86,533	53,981	84,240	97,539
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	12,254	3,864	13,489	15,691
Net Profit (Rsm)	(1,452)	(4,926)	1,343	2,768
Core EPS (Rs)	(1.9)	(6.0)	1.5	2.9
Core EPS Growth	(145.1%)	220.5%	(124.6%)	96.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	(154.12)	(48.09)	195.82	99.75
DPS (Rs)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)	2.05	4.02	0.50	0.00
P/FCFE (x)	121.77	(16.64)	195.36	66.69
Net Gearing	231.3%	60.6%	20.9%	0.2%
P/BV (x)	20.61	9.76	8.53	7.86
ROE	(11.5%)	(27.0%)	4.6%	8.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Net Revenues	87,425	54,695	85,061	98,483
Gross Profit	45,368	27,074	44,231	51,211
Operating EBITDA	12,254	3,864	13,489	15,691
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,768)	(9,351)	(9,800)	(10,400)
Operating EBIT	3,486	(5,487)	3,689	5,291
Financial Income/(Expense)	(4,227)	(4,900)	(2,500)	(2,300)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	651	4,010	626	708
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	(91)	(6,377)	1,815	3,699
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	(91)	(6,377)	1,815	3,699
Taxation	(1,361)	1,451	(472)	(931)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	(1,452)	(4,926)	1,343	2,768
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	(1,452)	(4,926)	1,343	2,768
Recurring Net Profit	(1,452)	(4,926)	1,343	2,768
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	(1,452)	(4,926)	1,343	2,768

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
EBITDA	12,254	3,864	13,489	15,691
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(6,987)	(3,171)	2,260	4,422
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(4,227)	(4,900)	(2,500)	(2,300)
Tax Paid		1,451	(472)	(931)
Cashflow From Operations	1,039	(2,756)	12,777	16,882
Capex	(8,929)	(9,351)	(10,057)	(10,900)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(1,007)	4,010	626	708
Cash Flow From Investing	(9,936)	(5,341)	(9,431)	(10,192)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	10,735	(6,135)	(2,000)	(2,550)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	274	17,681	5,419
Cash Flow From Financing	11,009	11,546	3,419	(2,550)
Total Cash Generated	2,112	3,449	6,765	4,140
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,838	(14,232)	1,346	4,140
Free Cashflow To Firm	(4,670)	(3,197)	5,846	8,990

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Cash And Equivalents	2,651	6,099	12,864	17,004
Total Debtors	8,402	6,144	9,555	9,713
Inventories	23,494	19,000	22,605	23,474
Total Other Current Assets	6,468	4,550	7,076	6,843
Total Current Assets	41,014	35,793	52,100	57,035
Fixed Assets	29,088	21,237	31,345	31,845
Total Investments	1,700	1,700	1,700	1,700
Intangible Assets	18,631	18,631	18,631	18,631
Total Other Non-Current Assets	5,961	5,961	5,961	5,961
Total Non-current Assets	55,381	47,530	57,638	58,138
Short-term Debt	15,078	15,078	13,078	13,078
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	22,733	14,985	23,304	26,982
Other Current Liabilities	8,445	4,945	7,690	8,904
Total Current Liabilities	46,257	35,008	44,072	48,963
Total Long-term Debt	12,685	6,550	6,550	4,000
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	24,674	22,674	24,674	24,674
Total Non-current Liabilities	37,359	29,224	31,224	28,674
Total Provisions	1,850	1,328	2,066	2,392
Total Liabilities	85,465	65,560	77,362	80,029
Shareholders Equity	10,859	25,614	32,376	35,144
Minority Interests
Total Equity	10,859	25,614	32,376	35,144

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue Growth	7.6%	(37.6%)	56.1%	15.8%
Operating EBITDA Growth	121.2%	(68.5%)	249.1%	16.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	14.2%	7.2%	16.0%	16.1%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(32.45)	(17.97)	(7.08)	(0.08)
BVPS (Rs)	14.03	29.64	33.91	36.81
Gross Interest Cover	0.82	(1.12)	1.48	2.30
Effective Tax Rate			26.0%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	33.96	48.53	33.68	35.71
Inventory Days	185.32	280.77	185.97	177.90
Accounts Payables Days	202.73	249.22	171.15	194.14
ROIC (%)	5.7%	(9.9%)	5.7%	8.7%
ROCE (%)	10.0%	(12.8%)	7.4%	10.2%
Return On Average Assets	5.1%	(1.6%)	4.5%	5.3%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com