InCred Equities - Bharat Forge

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	151,228	164,370	186,729	212,311
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	26,939	29,587	33,985	39,278
Net Profit (Rsm)	9,133	13,220	16,462	19,978
Core EPS (Rs)	21.2	27.6	34.4	41.8
Core EPS Growth	10.2%	30.6%	24.5%	21.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	67.87	46.89	37.65	31.03
DPS (Rs)	11.0	11.0	11.0	11.0
Dividend Yield	0.85%	0.85%	0.85%	0.85%
EV/EBITDA (x)	24.09	20.90	18.09	15.52
P/FCFE (x)	502.78	36.29	2,171.69	(184.91)
Net Gearing	54.2%	22.8%	23.1%	22.0%
P/BV (x)	6.70	4.82	4.26	3.75
ROE	12.3%	12.0%	12.0%	12.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	151,228	164,370	186,729	212,311
Gross Profit	43,901	46,845	53,405	61,358
Operating EBITDA	26,939	29,587	33,985	39,278
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,736)	(9,002)	(9,434)	(9,828)
Operating EBIT	18,203	20,584	24,551	29,449
Financial Income/(Expense)	(4,175)	(3,074)	(2,399)	(2,249)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,138	2,445	2,642	2,842
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	16,166	19,955	24,795	30,042
Exceptional Items	(1,571)
Pre-tax Profit	14,595	19,955	24,795	30,042
Taxation	(5,426)	(6,585)	(8,182)	(9,914)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	9,170	13,370	16,612	20,128
Minority Interests	(37)	(150)	(150)	(150)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	9,133	13,220	16,462	19,978
Recurring Net Profit	10,120	13,220	16,462	19,978
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	10,120	13,220	16,462	19,978

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	26,939	29,587	33,985	39,278
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(165)	(4,009)	(3,118)	(7,240)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(479)	5,387	(1,300)	(400)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,159	2,893	1,121	1,249
Other Operating Cashflow	(1,571)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,037)	(629)	244	593
Tax Paid	(5,849)	(3,991)	(4,959)	(6,008)
Cashflow From Operations	17,999	29,238	25,973	27,471
Capex	(19,648)	(18,970)	(19,200)	(18,250)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	15,219	15,627	(5,738)	(6,823)
Cash Flow From Investing	(4,429)	(3,342)	(24,938)	(25,073)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(12,337)	(8,817)	(750)	(5,750)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(291)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(5,259)	(5,259)	(5,259)	(5,259)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(17,887)	(14,077)	(6,009)	(11,009)
Total Cash Generated	(4,317)	11,819	(4,974)	(8,612)
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,233	17,078	285	(3,352)
Free Cashflow To Firm	17,745	28,969	3,434	4,647

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	12,914	24,733	19,759	11,147
Total Debtors	29,132	33,775	37,346	41,299
Inventories	35,784	37,828	41,950	46,534
Total Other Current Assets	18,840	18,500	21,000	22,500
Total Current Assets	96,670	114,835	120,055	121,480
Fixed Assets	80,959	90,926	100,692	109,114
Total Investments	20,627	30,627	38,627	46,627
Intangible Assets	2,628	2,628	2,628	2,628
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	104,213	124,181	141,947	158,369
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	23,442	26,119	30,695	31,992
Other Current Liabilities	17,015	22,000	23,000	24,000
Total Current Liabilities	40,457	48,119	53,695	55,992
Total Long-term Debt	62,884	54,067	53,317	47,567
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	62,884	54,067	53,317	47,567
Total Provisions	5,336	8,292	9,613	10,962
Total Liabilities	108,677	110,477	116,625	114,521
Shareholders Equity	92,533	128,716	145,404	165,205
Minority Interests	(328)	(178)	(28)	122
Total Equity	92,206	128,538	145,377	165,328

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	(3.6%)	8.7%	13.6%	13.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	5.3%	9.8%	14.9%	15.6%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.8%	18.0%	18.2%	18.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(104.51)	(61.35)	(70.19)	(76.17)
BVPS (Rs)	193.53	269.20	304.11	345.52
Gross Interest Cover	4.36	6.70	10.23	13.09
Effective Tax Rate	37.2%	33.0%	33.0%	33.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	49.1%	39.8%	31.9%	26.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	73.49	69.84	69.51	67.60
Inventory Days	115.54	114.31	109.20	106.98
Accounts Payables Days	78.33	76.96	77.77	75.79
ROIC (%)	10.6%	10.9%	12.1%	13.2%
ROCE (%)	12.0%	12.0%	12.6%	13.9%
Return On Average Assets	6.9%	7.0%	7.3%	8.0%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg