InCred Equities - Bharat Forge

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	156,821	157,006	174,960	201,053
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	25,579	28,732	32,368	37,798
Net Profit (Rsm)	9,101	10,508	14,877	18,841
Core EPS (Rs)	19.7	24.7	31.9	40.5
Core EPS Growth	87.0%	25.2%	29.4%	26.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	58.99	51.09	36.09	28.50
DPS (Rs)	10.0	11.0	11.0	11.0
Dividend Yield	0.87%	0.98%	0.98%	0.98%
EV/EBITDA (x)	22.54	18.80	16.46	13.90
P/FCFE (x)	46.60	26.80	(108.73)	140.02
Net Gearing	81.4%	27.3%	25.7%	22.9%
P/BV (x)	7.49	4.61	4.03	3.53
ROE	13.2%	12.2%	11.9%	13.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	156,821	157,006	174,960	201,053
Gross Profit	42,853	45,532	50,738	58,708
Operating EBITDA	25,579	28,732	32,368	37,798
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,482)	(8,922)	(9,029)	(9,347)
Operating EBIT	17,097	19,810	23,339	28,451
Financial Income/(Expense)	(4,912)	(4,456)	(3,330)	(2,711)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,274	2,317	2,760	3,034
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	14,460	17,671	22,768	28,774
Exceptional Items	(123)	(1,518)
Pre-tax Profit	14,336	16,153	22,768	28,774
Taxation	(5,288)	(5,655)	(7,741)	(9,783)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	9,048	10,498	15,027	18,991
Minority Interests	53	10	(150)	(150)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	9,101	10,508	14,877	18,841
Recurring Net Profit	9,179	11,495	14,877	18,841
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	9,179	11,495	14,877	18,841

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	25,579	28,732	32,368	37,798
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(572)	(3,857)	(2,768)	(5,496)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(6,052)	708	800	700
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(619)	3,030	2,294	1,239
Other Operating Cashflow	(123)	(1,518)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,637)	(2,140)	(571)	323
Tax Paid	(5,691)	(4,418)	(4,554)	(5,755)
Cashflow From Operations	9,884	20,538	27,570	28,808
Capex	(12,862)	(17,000)	(18,600)	(17,600)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	7,803	28,217	(6,157)	(6,624)
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,060)	11,217	(24,757)	(24,224)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	6,697	(11,725)	(7,750)	(750)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(356)	25
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,656)	(5,259)	(5,259)	(5,259)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5)
Cash Flow From Financing	1,680	(16,960)	(13,009)	(6,009)
Total Cash Generated	6,504	14,795	(10,197)	(1,425)
Free Cashflow To Equity	11,522	20,030	(4,938)	3,834
Free Cashflow To Firm	9,736	36,211	6,143	7,295

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	16,899	31,694	21,497	20,072
Total Debtors	31,769	35,273	38,347	42,965
Inventories	32,161	33,552	38,347	44,066
Total Other Current Assets	19,514	20,000	21,500	23,000
Total Current Assets	100,344	120,519	119,692	130,103
Fixed Assets	70,046	78,124	87,695	95,948
Total Investments	18,490	28,490	38,490	46,490
Intangible Assets	2,960	2,960	2,960	2,960
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	91,496	109,574	129,145	145,398
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	22,621	23,658	28,761	33,601
Other Current Liabilities	18,999	20,000	22,000	24,000
Total Current Liabilities	41,620	43,658	50,761	57,601
Total Long-term Debt	75,221	63,496	55,746	54,996
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	75,221	63,496	55,746	54,996
Total Provisions	3,346	6,568	9,163	10,601
Total Liabilities	120,186	113,723	115,669	123,198
Shareholders Equity	71,702	116,429	133,077	152,062
Minority Interests	(49)	(59)	91	241
Total Equity	71,653	116,370	133,168	152,304

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	21.5%	0.1%	11.4%	14.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	44.7%	12.3%	12.7%	16.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.3%	18.3%	18.5%	18.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(125.25)	(68.29)	(73.55)	(75.00)
BVPS (Rs)	153.98	250.04	285.79	326.56
Gross Interest Cover	3.48	4.45	7.01	10.49
Effective Tax Rate	36.9%	35.0%	34.0%	34.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	50.5%	43.7%	35.4%	27.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	73.03	77.93	76.79	73.81
Inventory Days	101.56	107.58	105.63	105.66
Accounts Payables Days	70.67	75.77	77.01	79.95
ROIC (%)	11.1%	11.6%	12.4%	13.8%
ROCE (%)	12.1%	12.0%	12.4%	13.9%
Return On Average Assets	6.7%	7.1%	7.2%	7.9%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg