InCred Equities - Gujarat Gas

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	162,930	192,628	221,898	258,955
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	18,764	24,855	37,370	40,660
Net Profit (Rsm)	11,437	15,083	24,027	26,069
Core EPS (Rs)	16.0	21.9	34.9	37.9
Core EPS Growth	(27.9%)	36.8%	59.3%	8.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	27.16	20.60	12.93	11.92
DPS (Rs)	5.6	6.0	6.0	6.0
Dividend Yield	1.25%	1.33%	1.33%	1.33%
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.06	12.04	7.70	6.76
P/FCFE (x)	53.67	28.44	15.20	13.59
Net Gearing	(12.0%)	(13.0%)	(21.0%)	(27.5%)
P/BV (x)	4.02	3.52	2.87	2.39
ROE	14.9%	18.2%	24.5%	21.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	162,930	192,628	221,898	258,955
Gross Profit	31,345	38,372	51,896	56,270
Operating EBITDA	18,764	24,855	37,370	40,660
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,743)	(5,152)	(5,711)	(6,270)
Operating EBIT	14,021	19,703	31,659	34,390
Financial Income/(Expense)	768	462	462	462
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	14,789	20,164	32,121	34,851
Exceptional Items	557
Pre-tax Profit	15,346	20,164	32,121	34,851
Taxation	(3,934)	(5,081)	(8,095)	(8,782)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	11,411	15,083	24,027	26,069
Minority Interests	26
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	11,437	15,083	24,027	26,069
Recurring Net Profit	11,023	15,083	24,027	26,069
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	11,023	15,083	24,027	26,069

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	18,764	24,855	37,370	40,660
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(201)	(708)	(698)	(883)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(422)	(422)	(422)	(422)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(340)	280	280	280
Tax Paid	(3,227)	(5,081)	(8,095)	(8,782)
Cashflow From Operations	14,575	18,924	28,437	30,852
Capex	(8,371)	(8,000)	(8,000)	(8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(415)
Cash Flow From Investing	(8,787)	(8,000)	(8,000)	(8,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,575)	(4,130)	(4,130)	(4,130)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(566)	(280)	(280)	(280)
Cash Flow From Financing	(5,141)	(4,410)	(4,410)	(4,410)
Total Cash Generated	647	6,514	16,026	18,442
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,788	10,924	20,437	22,852
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,495	10,644	20,157	22,572

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	9,261	11,506	22,705	35,760
Total Debtors	10,298	12,176	14,026	16,368
Inventories	587	694	799	932
Total Other Current Assets	2,142	2,142	2,142	2,142
Total Current Assets	22,288	26,517	39,671	55,202
Fixed Assets	69,719	77,719	85,719	93,719
Total Investments	1,696	1,696	1,696	1,696
Intangible Assets	5,558	5,558	5,558	5,558
Total Other Non-Current Assets	17,655	17,655	17,655	17,655
Total Non-current Assets	94,628	102,628	110,628	118,628
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	7,002	8,278	9,536	11,129
Other Current Liabilities	21,147	21,147	21,147	21,147
Total Current Liabilities	28,149	29,426	30,684	32,276
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	2,434	2,434	2,434	2,434
Total Non-current Liabilities	2,434	2,434	2,434	2,434
Total Provisions	9,108	9,108	9,108	9,108
Total Liabilities	39,691	40,967	42,225	43,818
Shareholders Equity	77,225	88,178	108,074	130,012
Minority Interests
Total Equity	77,225	88,178	108,074	130,012

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(5.9%)	18.2%	15.2%	16.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(21.6%)	32.5%	50.4%	8.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.5%	12.9%	16.8%	15.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	13.45	16.71	32.98	51.95
BVPS (Rs)	112.18	128.09	156.99	188.86
Gross Interest Cover	47.84	70.37	113.07	122.82
Effective Tax Rate	25.6%	25.2%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	35.7%	27.4%	17.2%	15.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	22.97	21.29	21.55	21.42
Inventory Days	1.66	1.51	1.60	1.56
Accounts Payables Days	19.64	18.08	19.12	18.61
ROIC (%)	13.5%	17.0%	24.9%	24.7%
ROCE (%)	16.9%	21.5%	29.5%	26.8%
Return On Average Assets	9.1%	12.0%	16.9%	15.9%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611549 pratyush.kamal@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg