InCred Equities - Orient Cement

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	31,851	32,202	35,473	39,801
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	4,492	5,068	5,976	7,076
Net Profit (Rsm)	1,749	2,182	2,648	3,149
Core EPS (Rs)	8.5	10.6	12.9	15.4
Core EPS Growth	42.4%	24.8%	21.4%	18.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	39.60	31.74	26.15	21.99
DPS (Rs)	1.5	1.9	2.3	2.8
Dividend Yield	0.44%	1.13%	1.38%	1.64%
EV/EBITDA (x)	15.53	13.43	11.76	10.64
P/FCFE (x)	94.81	35.32	233.18	(245.38)
Net Gearing	3.0%	(6.3%)	5.1%	26.8%
P/BV (x)	3.97	3.68	3.37	3.07
ROE	10.4%	12.0%	13.5%	14.6%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	31,851	32,202	35,473	39,801
Gross Profit	31,851	32,202	35,473	39,801
Operating EBITDA	4,492	5,068	5,976	7,076
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,492)	(1,551)	(1,644)	(1,776)
Operating EBIT	3,001	3,516	4,332	5,300
Financial Income/(Expense)	(342)	(359)	(466)	(676)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	155	241	260	281
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	2,814	3,398	4,125	4,904
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	2,814	3,398	4,125	4,904
Taxation	(1,066)	(1,217)	(1,477)	(1,756)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	1,749	2,182	2,648	3,149
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	1,749	2,182	2,648	3,149
Recurring Net Profit	1,749	2,182	2,648	3,149
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	1,749	2,182	2,648	3,149

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	4,492	5,068	5,976	7,076
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(122)	555	532	221
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	155	241	260	281
Other Operating Cashflow	(428)	(428)	(428)	(428)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(342)	(359)	(466)	(676)
Tax Paid	503	(1,217)	(1,477)	(1,756)
Cashflow From Operations	4,259	3,861	4,397	4,718
Capex	(783)	(3,300)	(7,600)	(10,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(70)
Cash Flow From Investing	(853)	(3,300)	(7,600)	(10,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(2,676)	1,400	3,500	5,500
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares		0		0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(307)	(393)	(477)	(567)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(353)	1,535	1,451	1,361
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,336)	2,542	4,474	6,294
Total Cash Generated	70	3,103	1,271	512
Free Cashflow To Equity	730	1,961	297	(282)
Free Cashflow To Firm	3,748	919	(2,737)	(5,106)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	771	3,873	5,144	5,656
Total Debtors	2,244	2,029	2,041	2,181
Inventories	3,402	3,264	3,304	3,598
Total Other Current Assets	434	451	461	517
Total Current Assets	6,850	9,617	10,951	11,953
Fixed Assets	20,210	21,959	27,914	36,638
Total Investments	115	115	115	115
Intangible Assets	889	889	889	889
Total Other Non-Current Assets	491	491	491	491
Total Non-current Assets	21,704	23,453	29,408	38,132
Short-term Debt	590	1,590	2,590	4,590
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	2,288	2,378	2,581	2,859
Other Current Liabilities	3,026	3,156	3,547	3,980
Total Current Liabilities	5,905	7,124	8,718	11,429
Total Long-term Debt	705	1,105	3,605	7,105
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	4,512	6,012	7,512	9,012
Total Non-current Liabilities	5,217	7,117	11,117	16,117
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	11,122	14,242	19,836	27,547
Shareholders Equity	17,432	18,829	20,524	22,539
Minority Interests
Total Equity	17,432	18,829	20,524	22,539

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	8.4%	1.1%	10.2%	12.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	23.2%	12.8%	17.9%	18.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	14.1%	15.7%	16.8%	17.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(2.56)	5.75	(5.13)	(29.48)
BVPS (Rs)	85.09	91.91	100.18	110.02
Gross Interest Cover	8.79	9.80	9.29	7.84
Effective Tax Rate	37.9%	35.8%	35.8%	35.8%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	17.6%	36.0%	36.0%	36.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	22.54	24.22	20.94	19.36
Inventory Days	39.60	37.78	33.79	31.65
Accounts Payables Days	29.58	31.39	30.68	30.34
ROIC (%)	13.4%	14.9%	15.0%	14.1%
ROCE (%)	15.5%	17.5%	18.0%	17.4%
Return On Average Assets	7.3%	8.2%	8.5%	8.5%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg