InCred Equities - NTPC Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	1,619,850	1,709,111	1,758,065	1,839,485
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	443,166	475,738	483,588	506,560
Net Profit (Rsm)	155,705	191,566	201,600	215,425
Core EPS (Rs)	17.8	19.8	20.8	22.2
Core EPS Growth	0.3%	11.1%	5.2%	6.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	20.20	16.42	15.60	14.60
DPS (Rs)	7.5	8.2	8.6	9.1
Dividend Yield	2.31%	2.52%	2.64%	2.81%
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.17	10.48	10.46	10.15
P/FCFE (x)	46.22	15.98	15.88	15.52
Net Gearing	120.5%	114.3%	110.6%	107.6%
P/BV (x)	2.10	1.95	1.82	1.69
ROE	11.9%	12.3%	12.1%	12.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	1,619,850	1,709,111	1,758,065	1,839,485
Gross Profit	640,659	682,513	690,364	723,214
Operating EBITDA	443,166	475,738	483,588	506,560
Depreciation And Amortisation	(139,432)	(147,394)	(141,355)	(144,732)
Operating EBIT	303,735	328,344	342,232	361,828
Financial Income/(Expense)	(102,508)	(103,800)	(107,251)	(111,947)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	37,222	39,274	40,398	42,269
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	238,449	263,817	275,380	292,150
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	238,449	263,817	275,380	292,150
Taxation	(66,000)	(72,251)	(73,780)	(76,725)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(16,744)
Profit After Tax	155,705	191,566	201,600	215,425
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	155,705	191,566	201,600	215,425
Recurring Net Profit	172,448	191,566	201,600	215,425
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	172,448	191,566	201,600	215,425

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	238,449	263,817	275,380	292,150
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(95,929)	(19,623)	(20,071)	(14,944)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	159,910	147,394	141,355	144,732
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	65,286	64,527	66,853	69,678
Tax Paid	(66,000)	(72,251)	(73,780)	(76,725)
Cashflow From Operations	301,715	383,864	389,738	414,891
Capex	(194,435)	(227,006)	(279,826)	(300,006)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(41,460)	(4,555)	7,902	(1,748)
Cash Flow From Investing	(235,895)	(231,560)	(271,924)	(301,754)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	2,210	44,462	80,162	89,443
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(72,725)	(79,175)	(82,915)	(88,454)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	13,283	(108,521)	(105,783)	(109,505)
Cash Flow From Financing	(57,233)	(143,235)	(108,536)	(108,516)
Total Cash Generated	8,588	9,068	9,277	4,621
Free Cashflow To Equity	68,030	196,765	197,975	202,581
Free Cashflow To Firm	(36,688)	48,503	10,563	1,190

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	46,005	55,073	64,351	68,972
Total Debtors	273,475	288,545	296,810	310,556
Inventories	173,698	187,300	192,665	201,587
Total Other Current Assets	231,055	243,787	250,770	262,383
Total Current Assets	724,233	774,705	804,594	843,498
Fixed Assets	2,597,680	2,677,292	2,815,762	2,971,036
Total Investments	331,579	349,851	359,871	376,538
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	279,453	305,009	327,485	354,836
Total Non-current Assets	3,208,712	3,332,152	3,503,119	3,702,410
Short-term Debt	390,596	422,316	454,037	485,758
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	94,747	99,968	102,831	107,593
Other Current Liabilities	300,503	317,062	314,740	329,316
Total Current Liabilities	785,845	839,346	871,608	922,667
Total Long-term Debt	1,461,591	1,474,332	1,522,773	1,580,495
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,461,591	1,474,332	1,522,773	1,580,495
Total Provisions	186,660	181,939	183,407	185,850
Total Liabilities	2,434,095	2,495,616	2,577,788	2,689,012
Shareholders Equity	1,498,850	1,611,241	1,729,926	1,856,896
Minority Interests
Total Equity	1,498,850	1,611,241	1,729,926	1,856,896

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(1.1%)	5.5%	2.9%	4.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	3.9%	7.3%	1.6%	4.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	27.4%	27.8%	27.5%	27.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(186.27)	(189.92)	(197.23)	(205.98)
BVPS (Rs)	154.57	166.16	178.40	191.50
Gross Interest Cover	2.96	3.16	3.19	3.23
Effective Tax Rate	27.7%	27.4%	26.8%	26.3%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	42.2%	41.3%	41.1%	41.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	58.69	60.01	60.76	60.26
Inventory Days	57.87	64.18	64.95	64.46
Accounts Payables Days	40.04	34.61	34.66	34.40
ROIC (%)	7.2%	7.5%	7.4%	7.4%
ROCE (%)	8.9%	9.2%	9.2%	9.2%
Return On Average Assets	6.4%	6.7%	6.7%	6.8%

(91) 22 4161 1565 ishan.verma@incredresearch.com