InCred Equities - NTPC Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	1,619,850	1,700,374	1,747,499	1,832,668
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	443,166	486,859	476,858	503,536
Net Profit (Rsm)	155,705	196,494	199,502	215,635
Core EPS (Rs)	17.8	20.3	20.6	22.2
Core EPS Growth	0.3%	13.9%	1.5%	8.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	20.66	16.37	16.12	14.92
DPS (Rs)	7.5	8.2	8.5	9.1
Dividend Yield	2.26%	2.49%	2.56%	2.75%
EV/EBITDA (x)	11.33	10.31	10.52	10.15
P/FCFE (x)	47.28	20.66	19.32	17.14
Net Gearing	120.5%	111.6%	103.9%	101.7%
P/BV (x)	2.15	1.99	1.86	1.73
ROE	11.9%	12.6%	11.9%	12.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	1,619,850	1,700,374	1,747,499	1,832,668
Gross Profit	640,659	692,094	679,445	716,026
Operating EBITDA	443,166	486,859	476,858	503,536
Depreciation And Amortisation	(139,432)	(150,558)	(136,569)	(141,504)
Operating EBIT	303,735	336,300	340,289	362,033
Financial Income/(Expense)	(102,508)	(110,570)	(112,566)	(116,821)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	37,222	43,761	44,974	47,166
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	238,449	269,491	272,697	292,378
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	238,449	269,491	272,697	292,378
Taxation	(66,000)	(72,997)	(73,195)	(76,743)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(16,744)
Profit After Tax	155,705	196,494	199,502	215,635
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	155,705	196,494	199,502	215,635
Recurring Net Profit	172,448	196,494	199,502	215,635
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	172,448	196,494	199,502	215,635

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	238,449	269,491	272,697	292,378
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(95,929)	(45,969)	(17,567)	(16,888)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	159,910	143,558	136,569	141,504
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	65,286	66,809	67,592	69,655
Tax Paid	(66,000)	(72,997)	(73,195)	(76,743)
Cashflow From Operations	301,715	360,892	386,096	409,905
Capex	(194,435)	(229,278)	(279,820)	(300,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(41,460)	23,821	(6,408)	1,887
Cash Flow From Investing	(235,895)	(205,457)	(286,228)	(298,113)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	2,210	250	66,625	75,907
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(72,725)	(79,998)	(82,259)	(88,475)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	13,283	22,515	(110,925)	(113,854)
Cash Flow From Financing	(57,233)	(57,233)	(126,558)	(126,422)
Total Cash Generated	8,588	98,202	(26,690)	(14,630)
Free Cashflow To Equity	68,030	155,685	166,494	187,699
Free Cashflow To Firm	(36,688)	44,865	(12,698)	(5,029)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	46,005	47,786	117,518	102,888
Total Debtors	273,475	287,345	295,309	309,702
Inventories	173,698	178,479	183,425	192,365
Total Other Current Assets	231,055	248,958	255,858	268,328
Total Current Assets	724,233	762,568	852,110	873,282
Fixed Assets	2,597,680	2,649,411	2,792,663	2,951,159
Total Investments	331,579	351,055	360,784	378,368
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	279,453	320,178	361,831	389,526
Total Non-current Assets	3,208,712	3,320,644	3,515,278	3,719,053
Short-term Debt	390,596	408,780	426,965	445,149
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	94,747	95,667	98,318	103,110
Other Current Liabilities	300,503	290,167	289,759	303,881
Total Current Liabilities	785,845	794,614	815,042	852,140
Total Long-term Debt	1,461,591	1,443,656	1,492,096	1,549,819
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,461,591	1,443,656	1,492,096	1,549,819
Total Provisions	186,660	224,502	226,143	229,110
Total Liabilities	2,434,095	2,462,771	2,533,282	2,631,070
Shareholders Equity	1,498,850	1,616,406	1,733,649	1,860,809
Minority Interests
Total Equity	1,498,850	1,616,406	1,733,649	1,860,809

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(1.1%)	5.0%	2.8%	4.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	3.9%	9.9%	(2.1%)	5.6%
Operating EBITDA Margin	27.4%	28.6%	27.3%	27.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(186.27)	(186.11)	(185.79)	(195.13)
BVPS (Rs)	154.57	166.70	178.79	191.90
Gross Interest Cover	2.96	3.04	3.02	3.10
Effective Tax Rate	27.7%	27.1%	26.8%	26.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	42.2%	40.7%	41.2%	41.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	58.69	60.19	60.85	60.25
Inventory Days	57.87	63.74	61.84	61.42
Accounts Payables Days	40.04	34.47	33.15	32.92
ROIC (%)	7.2%	7.6%	7.3%	7.3%
ROCE (%)	8.9%	9.5%	9.1%	9.2%
Return On Average Assets	6.4%	7.0%	6.7%	6.8%

(91) 22 4161 1565 ishan.verma@incredresearch.com

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Source: Bloomberg