InCred Equities - UPL Limited

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	535,760	409,155	490,986	589,183
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	112,830	50,890	74,593	109,019
Net Profit (Rsm)	35,700	(27,796)	5,159	26,542
Core EPS (Rs)	60.7	(18.5)	16.7	44.5
Core EPS Growth	2.4%	(130.5%)	(189.9%)	167.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	11.72	(15.05)	81.09	15.76
DPS (Rs)	12.3		1.8	9.1
Dividend Yield	2.24%		0.32%	1.67%
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.96	13.85	9.91	7.02
P/FCFE (x)	(325.27)	5.56	18.46	7.87
Net Gearing	47.6%	56.0%	59.2%	56.3%
P/BV (x)	1.40	1.50	1.43	1.29
ROE	19.2%	(5.5%)	5.0%	12.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	535,760	409,155	490,986	589,183
Gross Profit	262,950	182,920	225,853	282,808
Operating EBITDA	112,830	50,890	74,593	109,019
Depreciation And Amortisation	(25,470)	(26,450)	(21,111)	(24,182)
Operating EBIT	87,360	24,440	53,482	84,837
Financial Income/(Expense)	(29,630)	(37,620)	(29,663)	(29,663)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	1,570	(1,670)	887	886
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	4,770	5,080	5,080	5,080
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	64,070	(9,770)	29,785	61,139
Exceptional Items	(12,570)	(13,610)	(10,000)	(10,000)
Pre-tax Profit	51,500	(23,380)	19,785	51,139
Taxation	(7,360)	4,044	(4,762)	(12,664)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	44,140	(19,336)	15,023	38,476
Minority Interests	(8,440)	(8,460)	(9,864)	(11,933)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	35,700	(27,796)	5,159	26,542
Recurring Net Profit	46,474	(14,186)	12,752	34,066
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	46,474	(14,186)	12,752	34,066

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	112,830	50,890	74,593	109,019
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(13,690)	23,030	(27,740)	(20,893)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	19,933	5,839	9,601	11,751
Other Operating Cashflow	(24,343)	37,179	15,219	(584)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(29,840)	(37,620)	(29,663)	(29,663)
Tax Paid	12,620	(4,044)	4,762	12,664
Cashflow From Operations	77,510	75,273	46,772	82,294
Capex	(16,010)	(18,000)	(25,000)	(30,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	1,110	3,290	887	886
Cash Flow From Investing	(14,900)	(14,710)	(24,113)	(29,114)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(63,896)	14,610
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	26,990
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(7,500)		(1,355)	(6,970)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(17,864)	(37,620)	(29,663)	(29,663)
Cash Flow From Financing	(62,270)	(23,010)	(31,018)	(36,634)
Total Cash Generated	340	37,553	(8,360)	16,546
Free Cashflow To Equity	(1,286)	75,173	22,658	53,180
Free Cashflow To Firm	92,450	98,183	52,322	82,843

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	61,430	52,263	27,472	13,545
Total Debtors	182,240	145,726	167,010	200,412
Inventories	139,850	123,307	128,163	153,795
Total Other Current Assets	36,420	43,524	43,787	44,102
Total Current Assets	419,940	364,821	366,432	411,854
Fixed Assets	74,610	59,980	83,660	93,369
Total Investments	15,780	10,820	10,820	10,820
Intangible Assets	198,980	198,980	198,980	198,980
Total Other Non-Current Assets	34,740	35,731	36,011	36,212
Total Non-current Assets	324,110	305,511	329,472	339,381
Short-term Debt	28,550	28,550	28,550	28,550
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	176,140	168,146	161,420	193,704
Other Current Liabilities	85,680	70,752	76,140	82,313
Total Current Liabilities	290,370	267,447	266,110	304,567
Total Long-term Debt	201,440	216,050	216,050	216,050
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	12,880	12,880	12,880	12,880
Total Non-current Liabilities	214,320	228,930	228,930	228,930
Total Provisions	26,790	25,160	25,178	25,196
Total Liabilities	531,480	521,538	520,218	558,693
Shareholders Equity	298,440	279,104	292,772	324,277
Minority Interests	55,850	64,310	74,174	86,107
Total Equity	354,290	343,414	366,946	410,384

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	15.9%	(23.6%)	20.0%	20.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	11.2%	(54.9%)	46.6%	46.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	21.1%	12.4%	15.2%	18.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(220.34)	(251.42)	(283.83)	(302.03)
BVPS (Rs)	390.12	364.84	382.71	423.89
Gross Interest Cover	2.95	0.65	1.80	2.86
Effective Tax Rate	14.3%		24.1%	24.8%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.4%		8.9%	19.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	114.29	146.29	116.24	113.81
Inventory Days	181.04	212.28	173.10	167.96
Accounts Payables Days	(228.56)	(277.73)	(226.85)	(211.54)
ROIC (%)	21.6%	6.6%	12.7%	18.8%
ROCE (%)	14.7%	4.0%	8.6%	12.9%
Return On Average Assets	11.0%	4.5%	8.0%	10.8%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg