InCred Equities - UPL Limited

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	430,980	453,066	498,372	558,177
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	56,060	83,390	102,471	127,754
Net Profit (Rsm)	(25,560)	12,458	31,710	49,306
Core EPS (Rs)	(16.2)	22.3	41.5	64.5
Core EPS Growth	(126.6%)	(237.7%)	86.2%	55.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	(19.59)	40.19	15.79	10.15
DPS (Rs)	(8.8)	4.3	10.9	16.9
Dividend Yield	(1.34%)	0.65%	1.66%	2.59%
EV/EBITDA (x)	14.29	9.05	7.51	6.03
P/FCFE (x)	12.07	7.23	11.47	4.83
Net Gearing	67.7%	45.7%	43.3%	35.6%
P/BV (x)	1.80	1.55	1.41	1.24
ROE	(4.8%)	6.3%	10.3%	14.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	430,980	453,066	498,372	558,177
Gross Profit	186,040	226,533	249,186	279,088
Operating EBITDA	56,060	83,390	102,471	127,754
Depreciation And Amortisation	(27,630)	(27,715)	(27,056)	(26,596)
Operating EBIT	28,430	55,676	75,415	101,158
Financial Income/(Expense)	(38,520)	(34,369)	(29,169)	(26,569)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(2,420)	450	1,146	1,782
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	4,830	4,830	4,830	4,830
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	(7,680)	26,587	52,222	81,200
Exceptional Items	(13,190)	(6,070)
Pre-tax Profit	(20,870)	20,517	52,222	81,200
Taxation	2,090	(5,057)	(12,871)	(20,013)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	(18,780)	15,460	39,351	61,187
Minority Interests	(6,780)	(3,002)	(7,641)	(11,881)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	(25,560)	12,458	31,710	49,306
Recurring Net Profit	(12,370)	17,032	31,710	49,306
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	(12,370)	17,032	31,710	49,306

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	56,060	83,390	102,471	127,754
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(12,710)	38,669	(9,579)	(12,644)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,830	3,002	7,641	11,881
Other Operating Cashflow	(4,620)	23,016	8,257	(8,627)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(33,770)	(34,369)	(29,169)	(26,569)
Tax Paid	11,430	5,057	12,871	20,013
Cashflow From Operations	18,220	118,765	92,492	111,807
Capex	(11,180)	(10,000)	(10,000)	(10,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(13,600)	450	1,146	1,782
Cash Flow From Investing	(24,780)	(9,550)	(8,854)	(8,218)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	48,050	(40,000)	(40,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares		33,777
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(7,490)	(3,272)	(8,328)	(12,949)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(38,920)	(34,369)	(29,169)	(26,569)
Cash Flow From Financing	1,640	(43,864)	(77,497)	(39,518)
Total Cash Generated	(4,920)	65,352	6,141	64,071
Free Cashflow To Equity	41,490	69,215	43,638	103,589
Free Cashflow To Firm	27,210	143,585	112,807	130,158

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	62,970	72,695	24,724	35,603
Total Debtors	163,540	136,540	150,194	168,218
Inventories	127,760	124,128	136,540	152,925
Total Other Current Assets	39,010	39,010	39,010	39,010
Total Current Assets	393,280	372,372	350,469	395,756
Fixed Assets	58,480	40,765	23,710	7,114
Total Investments	18,930	18,930	18,930	18,930
Intangible Assets	201,840	201,840	201,840	201,840
Total Other Non-Current Assets	44,630	44,630	44,630	44,630
Total Non-current Assets	323,880	306,165	289,110	272,514
Short-term Debt	44,280	44,280	44,280	44,280
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	156,840	164,877	181,365	203,129
Other Current Liabilities	67,490	67,490	67,490	67,490
Total Current Liabilities	268,610	276,647	293,135	314,899
Total Long-term Debt	240,100	200,100	160,100	160,100
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	11,770	11,770	11,770	11,770
Total Non-current Liabilities	251,870	211,870	171,870	171,870
Total Provisions	27,920	27,920	27,920	27,920
Total Liabilities	548,400	516,437	492,925	514,689
Shareholders Equity	277,930	323,698	354,721	402,960
Minority Interests	49,130	52,132	59,773	71,654
Total Equity	327,060	375,830	414,494	474,614

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(19.6%)	5.1%	10.0%	12.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(50.3%)	48.8%	22.9%	24.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.0%	18.4%	20.6%	22.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(289.42)	(224.43)	(234.84)	(220.62)
BVPS (Rs)	363.31	423.13	463.69	526.74
Gross Interest Cover	0.74	1.62	2.59	3.81
Effective Tax Rate		24.6%	24.6%	24.6%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	54.3%	17.7%	26.3%	26.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	146.42	120.88	105.00	104.11
Inventory Days	199.39	202.93	190.91	189.29
Accounts Payables Days	(248.10)	(259.18)	(253.58)	(251.43)
ROIC (%)	6.9%	15.7%	21.7%	29.5%
ROCE (%)	4.6%	8.7%	11.7%	15.0%
Return On Average Assets	4.5%	8.0%	10.4%	13.4%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg