InCred Equities - Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	267,106	304,753	360,595	405,537
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	158,639	184,214	217,424	243,624
Net Profit (Rsm)	80,292	110,923	123,309	147,820
Core EPS (Rs)	39.7	49.5	57.1	68.4
Core EPS Growth	4.1%	24.8%	15.2%	19.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	35.09	28.11	24.40	20.35
DPS (Rs)	6.0	7.0	6.7	8.8
Dividend Yield	0.43%	0.50%	0.59%	0.77%
EV/EBITDA (x)	21.50	18.60	15.21	12.96
P/FCFE (x)	117.94	(311.13)	30.53	24.69
Net Gearing	70.9%	60.3%	39.3%	16.2%
P/BV (x)	5.68	4.82	4.12	3.52
ROE	17.4%	18.5%	18.2%	18.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	267,106	304,753	360,595	405,537
Gross Profit	195,942	224,056	267,793	298,814
Operating EBITDA	158,639	184,214	217,424	243,624
Depreciation And Amortisation	(38,885)	(43,789)	(50,176)	(51,526)
Operating EBIT	119,755	140,424	167,249	192,098
Financial Income/(Expense)	(12,850)	(14,735)	(13,500)	(5,378)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	106,905	125,689	153,748	186,720
Exceptional Items	(6,782)	4,607
Pre-tax Profit	100,122	130,296	153,748	186,720
Taxation	(19,897)	(19,684)	(30,750)	(39,211)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	80,225	110,613	122,998	147,509
Minority Interests	67	311	311	311
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	80,292	110,923	123,309	147,820
Recurring Net Profit	85,726	107,012	123,309	147,820
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	85,726	107,012	123,309	147,820

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	158,639	184,214	217,424	243,624
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	11,393	25,396	(6,136)	2,809
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(6,782)	4,607
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(12,850)	(14,735)	(13,500)	(5,378)
Tax Paid	(18,887)	(20,170)	(19,256)	(39,211)
Cashflow From Operations	131,513	179,312	178,531	201,844
Capex	(103,581)	(180,581)	(30,000)	(30,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	32,979	(3,708)
Cash Flow From Investing	(70,603)	(184,289)	(30,000)	(30,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(35,401)	(4,692)	(50,000)	(50,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(10,801)	(12,961)	(32,839)	(23,289)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	21,499	15,222	(12,790)	921
Cash Flow From Financing	(24,703)	(2,431)	(95,629)	(72,368)
Total Cash Generated	36,207	(7,408)	52,902	99,476
Free Cashflow To Equity	25,509	(9,669)	98,531	121,844
Free Cashflow To Firm	88,754	22,803	176,683	196,745

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	76,319	66,059	118,263	217,733
Total Debtors	36,669	44,324	57,695	64,886
Inventories	4,375	5,218	7,212	8,111
Total Other Current Assets	113,856	139,553	155,340	171,407
Total Current Assets	231,220	255,154	338,510	462,137
Fixed Assets	826,341	961,267	941,091	919,565
Total Investments	42,887	46,595	46,595	46,595
Intangible Assets	69,069	70,936	70,936	70,936
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	938,297	1,078,797	1,058,621	1,037,095
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	96,005	150,005	216,357	243,322
Other Current Liabilities	11,777	14,722
Total Current Liabilities	107,782	164,726	216,357	243,322
Total Long-term Debt	462,792	458,100	408,100	358,100
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	7,032	7,139	6,639	6,139
Total Non-current Liabilities	469,824	465,240	414,740	364,240
Total Provisions	46,480	54,251	27,637	27,637
Total Liabilities	624,087	684,218	658,733	635,199
Shareholders Equity	529,448	624,354	729,945	854,476
Minority Interests	15,982	25,380	8,453	9,558
Total Equity	545,430	649,733	738,398	864,034

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	28.1%	14.1%	18.3%	12.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	23.6%	16.1%	18.0%	12.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	59.4%	60.4%	60.3%	60.1%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(178.91)	(181.49)	(134.17)	(64.98)
BVPS (Rs)	245.10	289.03	337.91	395.56
Gross Interest Cover	4.30	5.05	5.94	7.71
Effective Tax Rate	19.9%	15.1%	20.0%	21.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	9.7%	9.6%	9.2%	10.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	47.20	48.50	51.63	55.16
Inventory Days	22.81	21.70	24.44	26.20
Accounts Payables Days	492.37	556.36	720.47	786.07
ROIC (%)	13.5%	14.9%	15.8%	18.9%
ROCE (%)	13.4%	14.2%	15.8%	17.5%
Return On Average Assets	10.5%	11.2%	12.2%	13.3%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

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Source: Bloomberg