InCred Equities - Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	267,106	297,263	356,589	399,518
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	158,639	177,323	211,510	236,555
Net Profit (Rsm)	80,292	102,019	128,721	152,656
Core EPS (Rs)	39.7	45.9	59.6	70.7
Core EPS Growth	4.1%	15.6%	29.9%	18.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	30.12	26.06	20.06	16.92
DPS (Rs)	6.0	5.6	7.6	9.8
Dividend Yield	0.61%	0.57%	0.78%	1.00%
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.82	16.26	13.02	11.05
P/FCFE (x)	101.23	33.24	26.11	21.89
Net Gearing	70.9%	47.0%	22.4%	2.4%
P/BV (x)	4.88	4.19	3.56	3.03
ROE	17.4%	17.3%	19.2%	19.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	267,106	297,263	356,589	399,518
Gross Profit	195,942	215,425	262,476	291,287
Operating EBITDA	158,639	177,323	211,510	236,555
Depreciation And Amortisation	(38,885)	(41,727)	(43,077)	(44,427)
Operating EBIT	119,755	135,596	168,433	192,127
Financial Income/(Expense)	(12,850)	(14,821)	(7,615)	1,023
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	106,905	120,774	160,818	193,151
Exceptional Items	(6,782)	3,558
Pre-tax Profit	100,122	124,333	160,818	193,151
Taxation	(19,897)	(22,380)	(32,164)	(40,562)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	80,225	101,953	128,655	152,589
Minority Interests	67	67	67	67
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	80,292	102,019	128,721	152,656
Recurring Net Profit	85,726	99,101	128,721	152,656
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	85,726	99,101	128,721	152,656

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	158,639	177,323	211,510	236,555
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	11,393	3,011	7,162	956
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(6,782)	3,558
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(12,850)	(14,821)	(7,615)	1,023
Tax Paid	(18,887)	(11,372)	(32,164)	(40,562)
Cashflow From Operations	131,513	157,698	178,894	197,972
Capex	(103,581)	(30,000)	(30,000)	(30,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	32,979
Cash Flow From Investing	(70,603)	(30,000)	(30,000)	(30,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(35,401)	(50,000)	(50,000)	(50,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(13,177)	(30,495)	(20,079)	(25,710)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	21,499	(4,138)	682	847
Cash Flow From Financing	(27,079)	(84,632)	(69,397)	(74,864)
Total Cash Generated	33,831	43,066	79,497	93,109
Free Cashflow To Equity	25,509	77,698	98,894	117,972
Free Cashflow To Firm	88,754	156,155	174,101	189,929

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	76,319	119,361	198,763	291,707
Total Debtors	36,669	47,562	57,054	63,923
Inventories	4,375	5,945	7,132	7,990
Total Other Current Assets	113,856	130,126	144,915	159,842
Total Current Assets	231,220	302,994	407,863	523,463
Fixed Assets	826,341	814,614	801,537	787,110
Total Investments	42,887	42,887	42,887	42,887
Intangible Assets	69,069	69,069	69,069	69,069
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	938,297	926,570	913,493	899,065
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	93,154	163,494	196,124	219,735
Other Current Liabilities	11,777
Total Current Liabilities	104,931	163,494	196,124	219,735
Total Long-term Debt	462,792	412,792	362,792	312,792
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	7,032	6,532	6,032	5,532
Total Non-current Liabilities	469,824	419,324	368,824	318,324
Total Provisions	49,332	22,512	22,512	22,512
Total Liabilities	624,087	605,330	587,460	560,571
Shareholders Equity	529,448	616,785	725,427	852,372
Minority Interests	15,982	7,449	8,469	9,586
Total Equity	545,430	624,234	733,896	861,958

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	28.1%	11.3%	20.0%	12.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	23.6%	11.8%	19.3%	11.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	59.4%	59.7%	59.3%	59.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(178.91)	(135.84)	(75.93)	(9.76)
BVPS (Rs)	245.10	285.53	335.82	394.59
Gross Interest Cover	4.30	4.77	6.68	8.75
Effective Tax Rate	19.9%	18.0%	20.0%	21.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	11.8%	9.7%	10.0%	10.6%
Accounts Receivables Days	47.20	51.71	53.54	55.26
Inventory Days	22.81	23.01	25.36	25.50
Accounts Payables Days	478.96	572.33	697.35	701.23
ROIC (%)	13.4%	14.3%	18.6%	21.7%
ROCE (%)	13.4%	14.3%	17.1%	18.6%
Return On Average Assets	10.5%	11.3%	13.2%	14.0%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1500 shivam.agarwal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg