InCred Equities - HDFC Bank

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Net Interest Income (Rsm)	1,219,701	1,310,513	1,522,260	1,728,710
Total Non-Interest Income (Rsm)	463,323	628,047	605,103	690,814
Operating Revenue (Rsm)	1,683,024	1,938,560	2,127,363	2,419,524
Total Provision Charges (Rsm)	(116,494)	(257,289)	(166,490)	(193,895)
Net Profit (Rsm)	673,474	728,118	852,777	981,199
Core EPS (Rs)	88.01	47.33	55.15	63.14
Core EPS Growth	10%	(46%)	17%	14%
FD Core P/E (x)	10.99	20.44	17.54	15.32
DPS (Rs)	11.00	15.00	14.25	14.25
Dividend Yield	1.14%	1.55%	1.47%	1.47%
BVPS (Rs)	655.3	364.1	406.3	457.1
P/BV (x)	1.48	2.66	2.38	2.12
ROE	14.3%	13.7%	14.4%	14.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Net Interest Income	1,219,701	1,310,513	1,522,260	1,728,710
Total Non-Interest Income	463,323	628,047	605,103	690,814
Operating Revenue	1,683,024	1,938,560	2,127,363	2,419,524
Total Non-Interest Expenses	(681,749)	(737,937)	(821,253)	(914,391)
Pre-provision Operating Profit	1,001,275	1,200,623	1,306,110	1,505,132
Total Provision Charges	(116,494)	(257,289)	(166,490)	(193,895)
Operating Profit After Provisions	884,781	943,333	1,139,620	1,311,238
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Operating EBIT (incl Associates)	884,781	943,333	1,139,620	1,311,238
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	884,781	943,333	1,139,620	1,311,238
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	884,781	943,333	1,139,620	1,311,238
Taxation	(211,307)	(215,215)	(286,842)	(330,039)
Consolidation Adjustments & Others
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	673,474	728,118	852,777	981,199
Minority Interests
Pref. & Special Div
FX And Other Adj.
Net Profit	673,474	728,118	852,777	981,199

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Gross Loans/Cust Deposits
Avg Loans/Avg Deposits	100.2%	94.3%	91.2%	90.3%
Avg Liquid Assets/Avg Assets	94.3%	94.5%	94.4%	94.3%
Avg Liquid Assets/Avg IEAs	106.9%	106.1%	105.3%	105.3%
Net Cust Loans/Assets
Net Cust Loans/Broad Deposits
Equity & Provns/Gross Cust Loans
Asset Risk Weighting
Provision Charge/Avg Cust Loans	0.46%	0.94%	0.54%	0.56%
Provision Charge/Avg Assets	0.31%	0.62%	0.36%	0.37%
Total Write Offs/Average Assets

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Gross Loans	26,196,086	28,815,694	32,417,656	37,280,304
Liquid Assets & Invst. (Current)	8,363,597	10,378,566	11,573,853	12,270,572
Other Int. Earning Assets
Total Gross Int. Earning Assets	34,559,684	39,194,260	43,991,508	49,550,876
Total Provisions/Loan Loss Reserve
Total Net Interest Earning Assets	34,559,684	39,194,260	43,991,508	49,550,876
Intangible Assets
Other Non-Interest Earning Assets	2,010,046	2,261,302	2,600,497	2,990,571
Total Non-Interest Earning Assets	2,146,600	2,411,511	2,765,727	3,172,325
Cash And Marketable Securities	2,395,707	2,113,351	2,329,682	2,623,196
Long-term Investments
Total Assets	39,101,988	43,719,124	49,086,920	55,346,396
Customer Interest-Bearing Liabilities	27,147,148	31,219,222	35,902,104	41,287,420
Bank Deposits
Interest Bearing Liabilities: Others
Total Interest-Bearing Liabilities	32,375,922	36,186,556	40,621,072	45,770,440
Banks Liabilities Under Acceptances
Total Non-Interest Bearing Liabilities	1,711,822	1,931,014	2,183,086	2,472,969
Total Liabilities	34,087,744	38,117,568	42,804,156	48,243,408
Shareholders Equity	5,014,246	5,601,553	6,282,760	7,102,989
Minority Interests
Total Equity	5,014,246	5,601,553	6,282,760	7,102,989

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Income Growth	12.4%	7.4%	16.2%	13.6%
Operating Profit Growth	6.1%	19.9%	8.8%	15.2%
Pretax Profit Growth	25%	7%	21%	15%
Net Interest To Total Income	72.5%	67.6%	71.6%	71.4%
Cost Of Funds	5.69%	5.48%	5.20%	5.03%
Return On Interest Earning Assets	9.0%	8.7%	8.5%	8.3%
Net Interest Spread	3.34%	3.17%	3.26%	3.31%
Net Interest Margin (Avg Deposits)	4.79%	4.49%	4.54%	4.48%
Net Interest Margin (Avg RWA)
Provisions to Pre Prov. Operating Profit	12%	21%	13%	13%
Interest Return On Average Assets	3.24%	3.16%	3.28%	3.31%
Effective Tax Rate	23.9%	22.8%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	25.0%	31.7%	25.8%	22.6%
Return On Average Assets	1.79%	1.76%	1.84%	1.88%

(91) 22 4161 1551 bhavik.shah@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg