InCred Equities - Bajaj Auto

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	446,852	535,996	628,538	707,307
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	88,229	109,318	127,077	139,682
Net Profit (Rsm)	74,788	91,737	106,266	116,756
Core EPS (Rs)	267.9	328.6	380.6	418.2
Core EPS Growth	32.9%	22.7%	15.8%	9.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	35.63	29.05	25.08	22.83
DPS (Rs)	160.0	200.0	240.0	220.0
Dividend Yield	1.68%	2.10%	2.51%	2.51%
EV/EBITDA (x)	27.38	21.94	18.62	16.64
P/FCFE (x)	27.62	39.45	28.79	48.48
Net Gearing	(91.8%)	(85.4%)	(84.2%)	(83.1%)
P/BV (x)	10.72	9.37	8.23	7.13
ROE	29.7%	34.4%	34.9%	33.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	446,852	535,996	628,538	707,307
Gross Profit	114,518	139,819	162,589	180,362
Operating EBITDA	88,229	109,318	127,077	139,682
Depreciation And Amortisation	(3,498)	(4,000)	(4,500)	(5,000)
Operating EBIT	84,731	105,318	122,577	134,682
Financial Income/(Expense)	(535)	(600)	(500)	(400)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,025	15,988	17,747	19,344
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	98,220	120,706	139,824	153,626
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	98,220	120,706	139,824	153,626
Taxation	(23,432)	(28,970)	(33,558)	(36,870)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	74,788	91,737	106,266	116,756
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	74,788	91,737	106,266	116,756
Recurring Net Profit	74,788	91,737	106,266	116,756
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	74,788	91,737	106,266	116,756

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	88,229	109,318	127,077	139,682
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	8,923	(1,768)	(2,377)	(4,087)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	17,579	(16,998)	(200)	(1,700)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,618
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	13,490	15,388	17,247	18,944
Tax Paid	(22,836)	(28,970)	(33,558)	(36,870)
Cashflow From Operations	107,003	76,970	108,189	115,969
Capex	(7,781)	(3,360)	(8,639)	(8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(2,741)	(6,000)	(7,000)	(53,000)
Cash Flow From Investing	(10,522)	(9,360)	(15,639)	(61,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	16	(58)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(38)
Shares Repurchased	(49,282)
Dividends Paid	(44,669)	(55,836)	(67,003)	(67,003)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(93,973)	(55,894)	(67,003)	(67,003)
Total Cash Generated	2,509	11,716	25,547	(12,035)
Free Cashflow To Equity	96,498	67,552	92,550	54,969
Free Cashflow To Firm	97,016	68,210	93,050	55,369

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	229,407	244,123	273,670	311,635
Total Debtors	21,224	26,433	32,718	38,757
Inventories	16,956	19,090	24,108	29,067
Total Other Current Assets	21,774	24,500	27,000	30,000
Total Current Assets	289,361	314,146	357,496	409,459
Fixed Assets	26,760	31,260	35,760	38,760
Total Investments	20,884	23,884	26,884	29,884
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	47,645	55,145	62,645	68,645
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	56,102	61,676	70,603	77,513
Other Current Liabilities	29,581	15,000	17,000	18,000
Total Current Liabilities	85,683	76,676	87,603	95,513
Total Long-term Debt	1,258	1,200	1,200	1,200
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,258	1,200	1,200	1,200
Total Provisions	6,960	7,269	7,569	7,869
Total Liabilities	93,902	85,146	96,372	104,583
Shareholders Equity	248,605	284,506	323,769	373,521
Minority Interests
Total Equity	248,605	284,506	323,769	373,521

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	22.7%	19.9%	17.3%	12.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	34.7%	23.9%	16.2%	9.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	19.7%	20.4%	20.2%	19.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	817.21	870.13	975.96	1,111.95
BVPS (Rs)	890.48	1,019.08	1,159.71	1,337.92
Gross Interest Cover	158.38	175.53	245.15	336.71
Effective Tax Rate	23.9%	24.0%	24.0%	24.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	59.7%	60.9%	63.1%	57.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	15.92	16.23	17.17	18.44
Inventory Days	16.99	16.60	16.92	18.42
Accounts Payables Days	53.18	54.25	51.81	51.30
ROIC (%)	267.5%	7,866.4%	383.6%	324.2%
ROCE (%)	38.4%	44.5%	45.2%	43.4%
Return On Average Assets	23.3%	26.1%	27.0%	26.1%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

More Reports

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg