InCred Equities - Bajaj Auto

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	500,103	585,538	663,898	736,664
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	100,988	117,666	134,927	150,862
Net Profit (Rsm)	79,402	96,495	110,163	123,212
Core EPS (Rs)	291.9	345.5	394.5	441.2
Core EPS Growth	10.4%	18.4%	14.2%	11.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	30.38	25.00	21.89	19.58
DPS (Rs)	210.0	240.0	220.0	230.0
Dividend Yield	2.43%	2.78%	3.24%	3.59%
EV/EBITDA (x)	20.94	17.62	15.12	13.36
P/FCFE (x)	36.24	37.56	27.83	32.45
Net Gearing	(79.5%)	(73.2%)	(73.2%)	(69.9%)
P/BV (x)	7.50	6.87	6.30	5.75
ROE	28.6%	28.7%	30.0%	30.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	500,103	585,538	663,898	736,664
Gross Profit	131,431	151,603	173,570	191,795
Operating EBITDA	100,988	117,666	134,927	150,862
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,001)	(4,500)	(5,000)	(5,400)
Operating EBIT	96,987	113,166	129,927	145,462
Financial Income/(Expense)	(677)	(500)	(400)	(300)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,209	14,636	15,807	17,387
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	110,519	127,302	145,334	162,549
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	110,519	127,302	145,334	162,549
Taxation	(29,005)	(30,807)	(35,171)	(39,337)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(2,113)
Profit After Tax	79,402	96,495	110,163	123,212
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	79,402	96,495	110,163	123,212
Recurring Net Profit	81,514	96,495	110,163	123,212
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	81,514	96,495	110,163	123,212

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	100,988	117,666	134,927	150,862
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	2,349	(1,020)	6,214	(5,282)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(29,167)	11,969	(1,700)	(4,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	6,161
Other Operating Cashflow	(2,113)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	13,532	14,136	15,407	17,087
Tax Paid	(25,590)	(30,807)	(35,171)	(39,337)
Cashflow From Operations	66,160	111,944	119,677	119,330
Capex	(7,530)	(4,487)	(8,000)	(8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	7,915	(43,160)	(25,000)	(37,000)
Cash Flow From Investing	385	(47,647)	(33,000)	(45,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	18	(76)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	1
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(58,645)	(67,022)	(78,193)	(86,571)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(58,626)	(67,099)	(78,193)	(86,571)
Total Cash Generated	7,919	(2,802)	8,484	(12,241)
Free Cashflow To Equity	66,563	64,221	86,677	74,330
Free Cashflow To Firm	67,222	64,797	87,077	74,630

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	256,968	258,167	281,651	294,410
Total Debtors	22,826	28,876	30,921	38,347
Inventories	19,579	22,459	27,283	30,274
Total Other Current Assets	47,106	27,000	30,000	34,000
Total Current Assets	346,479	336,502	369,856	397,031
Fixed Assets	31,277	35,777	38,777	41,377
Total Investments	42,020	81,180	91,180	103,180
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	73,296	116,956	129,956	144,556
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	62,676	70,585	83,669	88,803
Other Current Liabilities	25,122	17,000	18,000	18,000
Total Current Liabilities	87,798	87,585	101,669	106,803
Total Long-term Debt	1,276	1,200	1,200	1,200
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,276	1,200	1,200	1,200
Total Provisions	13,745	13,730	14,030	14,030
Total Liabilities	102,820	102,516	116,900	122,034
Shareholders Equity	321,469	350,942	382,912	419,554
Minority Interests
Total Equity	321,469	350,942	382,912	419,554

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	12.2%	17.1%	13.4%	11.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	15.7%	16.5%	14.7%	11.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	20.2%	20.1%	20.3%	20.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	915.61	920.17	1,004.26	1,049.95
BVPS (Rs)	1,151.15	1,256.69	1,371.17	1,502.38
Gross Interest Cover	143.22	226.33	324.82	484.87
Effective Tax Rate	26.2%	24.2%	24.2%	24.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	71.9%	69.5%	71.0%	70.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	16.08	16.11	16.44	17.16
Inventory Days	18.09	17.68	18.51	19.28
Accounts Payables Days	58.80	56.05	57.41	57.77
ROIC (%)	7,244.1%	264.1%	377.2%	442.5%
ROCE (%)	37.8%	36.7%	38.4%	39.4%
Return On Average Assets	21.7%	22.2%	23.2%	23.7%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg