InCred Equities - Bajaj Auto

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	446,852	506,127	599,842	685,070
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	88,229	101,815	122,283	136,392
Net Profit (Rsm)	74,788	84,845	101,295	112,679
Core EPS (Rs)	267.9	303.9	362.8	403.6
Core EPS Growth	32.9%	13.4%	19.4%	11.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	30.14	26.56	22.25	20.00
DPS (Rs)	160.0	200.0	240.0	220.0
Dividend Yield	1.98%	2.48%	2.97%	2.97%
EV/EBITDA (x)	22.72	19.59	16.09	14.15
P/FCFE (x)	23.36	37.71	25.65	44.01
Net Gearing	(91.8%)	(84.7%)	(83.4%)	(82.3%)
P/BV (x)	9.07	8.12	7.23	6.30
ROE	29.7%	32.2%	34.4%	33.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	446,852	506,127	599,842	685,070
Gross Profit	114,518	131,336	156,534	176,538
Operating EBITDA	88,229	101,815	122,283	136,392
Depreciation And Amortisation	(3,498)	(4,000)	(4,500)	(5,000)
Operating EBIT	84,731	97,815	117,783	131,392
Financial Income/(Expense)	(535)	(600)	(500)	(400)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,025	14,866	16,353	17,661
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	98,220	112,081	133,635	148,653
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	98,220	112,081	133,635	148,653
Taxation	(23,432)	(27,236)	(32,340)	(35,974)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	74,788	84,845	101,295	112,679
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	74,788	84,845	101,295	112,679
Recurring Net Profit	74,788	84,845	101,295	112,679
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	74,788	84,845	101,295	112,679

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	88,229	101,815	122,283	136,392
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	8,923	(2,668)	(2,106)	(3,763)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	17,579	(16,998)	(200)	(1,700)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,618
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	13,490	14,266	15,853	17,261
Tax Paid	(22,836)	(27,236)	(32,340)	(35,974)
Cashflow From Operations	107,003	69,178	103,489	112,216
Capex	(7,781)	(3,360)	(8,639)	(8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(2,741)	(6,000)	(7,000)	(53,000)
Cash Flow From Investing	(10,522)	(9,360)	(15,639)	(61,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	16	(58)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(38)
Shares Repurchased	(49,282)
Dividends Paid	(44,669)	(55,836)	(67,003)	(67,003)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(93,973)	(55,894)	(67,003)	(67,003)
Total Cash Generated	2,509	3,924	20,847	(15,787)
Free Cashflow To Equity	96,498	59,760	87,851	51,216
Free Cashflow To Firm	97,016	60,419	88,351	51,616

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	229,407	236,331	261,179	295,391
Total Debtors	21,224	24,960	31,225	37,538
Inventories	16,956	18,026	23,008	28,154
Total Other Current Assets	21,774	24,500	27,000	30,000
Total Current Assets	289,361	303,817	342,411	391,083
Fixed Assets	26,760	31,260	35,760	38,760
Total Investments	20,884	23,884	26,884	29,884
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	47,645	55,145	62,645	68,645
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	56,102	58,239	67,380	75,076
Other Current Liabilities	29,581	15,000	17,000	18,000
Total Current Liabilities	85,683	73,239	84,380	93,076
Total Long-term Debt	1,258	1,200	1,200	1,200
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,258	1,200	1,200	1,200
Total Provisions	6,960	7,269	7,569	7,869
Total Liabilities	93,902	81,709	93,149	102,146
Shareholders Equity	248,605	277,614	311,906	357,582
Minority Interests
Total Equity	248,605	277,614	311,906	357,582

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	22.7%	13.3%	18.5%	14.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	34.7%	15.4%	20.1%	11.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	19.7%	20.1%	20.4%	19.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	817.21	842.22	931.22	1,053.77
BVPS (Rs)	890.48	994.39	1,117.22	1,280.83
Gross Interest Cover	158.38	163.02	235.57	328.48
Effective Tax Rate	23.9%	24.3%	24.2%	24.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	59.7%	65.8%	66.1%	59.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	15.92	16.65	17.09	18.32
Inventory Days	16.99	17.03	16.89	18.36
Accounts Payables Days	53.18	55.68	51.71	51.12
ROIC (%)	267.5%	7,306.0%	355.6%	310.2%
ROCE (%)	38.4%	41.8%	44.6%	43.7%
Return On Average Assets	23.3%	24.5%	26.6%	26.1%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg