InCred Equities - Apollo Tyres Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	253,777	267,736	295,960	323,329
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	44,473	37,980	43,288	49,347
Net Profit (Rsm)	17,219	13,324	15,453	18,505
Core EPS (Rs)	27.7	21.8	24.3	29.1
Core EPS Growth	62.6%	(21.4%)	11.8%	19.7%
FD Core P/E (x)	15.80	20.41	17.60	14.70
DPS (Rs)	6.0	6.0	7.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	1.40%	1.40%	1.63%	1.87%
EV/EBITDA (x)	6.68	7.52	6.48	5.59
P/FCFE (x)	49.57	19.99	31.97	31.73
Net Gearing	18.2%	9.1%	5.3%	2.3%
P/BV (x)	1.96	1.83	1.70	1.57
ROE	13.1%	9.6%	10.0%	11.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	253,777	267,736	295,960	323,329
Gross Profit	117,146	116,465	127,263	139,032
Operating EBITDA	44,473	37,980	43,288	49,347
Depreciation And Amortisation	(14,778)	(15,476)	(17,347)	(18,694)
Operating EBIT	29,695	22,504	25,941	30,653
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,924)	(3,308)	(3,215)	(3,440)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	25,771	19,197	22,726	27,213
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	25,771	19,197	22,726	27,213
Taxation	(8,183)	(5,375)	(7,272)	(8,708)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(373)	(498)
Profit After Tax	17,215	13,324	15,453	18,505
Minority Interests	4
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	17,219	13,324	15,453	18,505
Recurring Net Profit	17,592	13,822	15,453	18,505
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	17,592	13,822	15,453	18,505

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	44,473	37,980	43,288	49,347
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	4
Change In Working Capital	(3,688)	(10,560)	(8,502)	(9,828)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	691	1	250	250
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	1,136	1,193	1,252	1,315
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(5,059)	(4,500)	(4,468)	(4,755)
Tax Paid	(4,209)	(4,223)	(5,681)	(6,803)
Cashflow From Operations	33,348	19,890	26,139	29,526
Capex	(9,242)	(1,532)	(14,000)	(17,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(2,161)	(2,751)	(2,632)	(2,953)
Cash Flow From Investing	(11,403)	(4,283)	(16,632)	(19,953)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(16,458)	(2,000)	(1,000)	(1,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,811)	(3,811)	(4,446)	(5,081)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(20,268)	(5,811)	(5,446)	(6,081)
Total Cash Generated	1,677	9,797	4,061	3,492
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,487	13,607	8,507	8,573
Free Cashflow To Firm	27,005	20,107	13,975	14,328

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	14,156	23,952	28,014	31,506
Total Debtors	26,648	29,341	33,245	37,205
Inventories	42,457	51,347	58,381	66,438
Total Other Current Assets	12,389	15,000	17,000	19,000
Total Current Assets	95,650	119,640	136,640	154,148
Fixed Assets	165,763	157,287	153,940	152,246
Total Investments	382	420	462	508
Intangible Assets	2,311	2,311	2,311	2,311
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	168,455	160,018	156,713	155,065
Short-term Debt	12,691	12,691	12,691	12,691
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	29,786	30,808	33,245	35,433
Other Current Liabilities	42,500	43,500	44,500	45,300
Total Current Liabilities	84,978	87,000	90,436	93,425
Total Long-term Debt	26,727	24,727	23,727	22,727
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	26,727	24,727	23,727	22,727
Total Provisions	18,846	19,396	19,646	20,095
Total Liabilities	130,552	131,123	133,810	136,247
Shareholders Equity	139,022	148,535	159,543	172,967
Minority Interests
Total Equity	139,022	148,535	159,543	172,967

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	3.3%	5.5%	10.5%	9.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	34.2%	(14.6%)	14.0%	14.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.5%	14.2%	14.6%	15.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(39.78)	(21.20)	(13.23)	(6.16)
BVPS (Rs)	218.90	233.88	251.21	272.35
Gross Interest Cover	5.87	5.00	5.81	6.45
Effective Tax Rate	31.8%	28.0%	32.0%	32.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	21.7%	27.6%	28.8%	27.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	37.06	38.16	38.59	39.76
Inventory Days	115.86	113.17	118.71	123.60
Accounts Payables Days	84.58	73.10	69.29	68.01
ROIC (%)	10.9%	8.4%	9.5%	10.8%
ROCE (%)	15.3%	11.4%	12.6%	14.1%
Return On Average Assets	7.6%	5.9%	6.1%	6.9%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg