InCred Equities - Apollo Tyres Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	253,777	266,397	294,393	320,727
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	44,473	40,839	44,180	49,815
Net Profit (Rsm)	17,219	14,404	15,574	18,530
Core EPS (Rs)	27.7	23.3	24.5	29.2
Core EPS Growth	62.6%	(15.8%)	5.2%	19.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	17.94	21.44	19.83	16.67
DPS (Rs)	6.0	6.0	7.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	1.23%	1.23%	1.44%	1.65%
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.51	7.92	7.19	6.27
P/FCFE (x)	56.28	25.20	33.07	32.36
Net Gearing	18.2%	9.9%	5.6%	2.0%
P/BV (x)	2.22	2.06	1.92	1.77
ROE	13.1%	10.3%	10.0%	11.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	253,777	266,397	294,393	320,727
Gross Profit	117,146	117,214	126,589	137,913
Operating EBITDA	44,473	40,839	44,180	49,815
Depreciation And Amortisation	(14,778)	(15,794)	(17,999)	(19,401)
Operating EBIT	29,695	25,045	26,181	30,414
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,924)	(3,269)	(3,279)	(3,165)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	25,771	21,776	22,902	27,249
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	25,771	21,776	22,902	27,249
Taxation	(8,183)	(6,968)	(7,329)	(8,720)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(373)	(404)
Profit After Tax	17,215	14,404	15,574	18,530
Minority Interests	4
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	17,219	14,404	15,574	18,530
Recurring Net Profit	17,592	14,808	15,574	18,530
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	17,592	14,808	15,574	18,530

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	44,473	40,839	44,180	49,815
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	4
Change In Working Capital	(3,688)	(10,311)	(8,442)	(9,588)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	691	1	250	250
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	1,136	1,306	1,371	1,440
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(5,059)	(4,575)	(4,650)	(4,605)
Tax Paid	(4,209)	(5,444)	(5,726)	(6,812)
Cashflow From Operations	33,348	21,816	26,983	30,500
Capex	(9,242)	(4,532)	(14,000)	(17,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(2,161)	(3,029)	(2,645)	(2,955)
Cash Flow From Investing	(11,403)	(7,561)	(16,645)	(19,955)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(16,458)	(2,000)	(1,000)	(1,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,811)	(3,811)	(4,446)	(5,081)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(20,268)	(5,811)	(5,446)	(6,081)
Total Cash Generated	1,677	8,444	4,893	4,463
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,487	12,255	9,339	9,544
Free Cashflow To Firm	27,005	18,830	14,989	15,149

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	14,156	22,600	27,493	31,957
Total Debtors	26,648	29,194	33,069	36,906
Inventories	42,457	51,090	58,072	65,903
Total Other Current Assets	12,389	15,000	17,000	19,000
Total Current Assets	95,650	117,884	135,634	153,765
Fixed Assets	165,763	159,969	155,970	153,570
Total Investments	382	420	462	508
Intangible Assets	2,311	2,311	2,311	2,311
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	168,455	162,700	158,743	156,389
Short-term Debt	12,691	12,691	12,691	12,691
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	29,786	30,654	33,069	35,148
Other Current Liabilities	42,500	43,500	44,500	45,300
Total Current Liabilities	84,978	86,845	90,260	93,140
Total Long-term Debt	26,727	24,727	23,727	22,727
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	26,727	24,727	23,727	22,727
Total Provisions	18,846	19,396	19,646	20,095
Total Liabilities	130,552	130,969	133,634	135,962
Shareholders Equity	139,022	149,615	160,743	174,192
Minority Interests
Total Equity	139,022	149,615	160,743	174,192

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	3.3%	5.0%	10.5%	8.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	34.2%	(8.2%)	8.2%	12.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.5%	15.3%	15.0%	15.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(39.78)	(23.33)	(14.05)	(5.45)
BVPS (Rs)	218.90	235.58	253.10	274.27
Gross Interest Cover	5.87	5.47	5.63	6.60
Effective Tax Rate	31.8%	32.0%	32.0%	32.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	21.7%	25.7%	28.5%	27.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	37.06	38.26	38.60	39.82
Inventory Days	115.86	114.44	118.72	123.76
Accounts Payables Days	84.58	73.94	69.30	68.10
ROIC (%)	10.9%	9.3%	9.4%	10.6%
ROCE (%)	15.3%	12.7%	12.6%	13.9%
Return On Average Assets	7.6%	6.2%	6.2%	6.8%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg