InCred Equities - Apollo Tyres Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	261,234	286,380	313,140	338,883
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	35,715	40,776	48,105	53,315
Net Profit (Rsm)	11,213	14,590	18,269	21,394
Core EPS (Rs)	20.3	23.0	28.8	33.7
Core EPS Growth	(26.7%)	13.1%	25.2%	17.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	26.69	20.51	16.38	13.99
DPS (Rs)	5.0	7.0	9.0	11.0
Dividend Yield	1.06%	1.49%	1.91%	2.33%
EV/EBITDA (x)	9.07	7.55	6.27	5.48
P/FCFE (x)	(149.23)	15.36	27.00	19.23
Net Gearing	23.2%	7.5%	1.8%	(5.0%)
P/BV (x)	2.80	2.56	2.31	2.08
ROE	10.5%	13.1%	14.8%	15.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	261,234	286,380	313,140	338,883
Gross Profit	114,289	126,007	139,348	149,108
Operating EBITDA	35,715	40,776	48,105	53,315
Depreciation And Amortisation	(14,984)	(16,178)	(17,546)	(18,835)
Operating EBIT	20,732	24,598	30,559	34,481
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,585)	(3,143)	(3,692)	(3,019)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	17,147	21,455	26,867	31,462
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	17,147	21,455	26,867	31,462
Taxation	(4,253)	(6,866)	(8,597)	(10,068)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(1,687)
Profit After Tax	11,207	14,590	18,269	21,394
Minority Interests	7
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	11,213	14,590	18,269	21,394
Recurring Net Profit	12,900	14,590	18,269	21,394
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	12,900	14,590	18,269	21,394

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	35,715	40,776	48,105	53,315
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	7
Change In Working Capital	(13,869)	(5,657)	(8,930)	(8,357)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	39,010	329	250	750
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	881	969	1,018	1,068
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(4,466)	(4,112)	(4,710)	(4,088)
Tax Paid	(2,717)	(5,364)	(6,717)	(7,865)
Cashflow From Operations	54,560	26,941	29,015	34,824
Capex	(9,844)	(3,566)	(14,000)	(15,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(41,075)	(2,889)	(2,932)	(3,260)
Cash Flow From Investing	(50,918)	(6,454)	(16,932)	(18,260)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(5,648)	(1,000)	(1,000)	(1,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,176)	(4,446)	(5,716)	(6,986)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(8,823)	(5,446)	(6,716)	(7,986)
Total Cash Generated	(5,181)	15,041	5,367	8,578
Free Cashflow To Equity	(2,005)	19,487	11,083	15,564
Free Cashflow To Firm	8,109	24,598	16,793	20,652

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	8,975	24,016	29,383	37,962
Total Debtors	30,621	32,953	36,891	41,780
Inventories	51,312	56,491	63,486	69,633
Total Other Current Assets	13,236	15,500	17,500	19,000
Total Current Assets	104,144	128,961	147,260	168,375
Fixed Assets	158,656	153,478	149,933	146,098
Total Investments	452	497	546	601
Intangible Assets	2,374	2,374	2,374	2,374
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	161,482	156,349	152,853	149,073
Short-term Debt	15,479	15,479	15,479	15,479
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	28,744	30,600	32,601	35,281
Other Current Liabilities	81,997	82,997	83,797	84,597
Total Current Liabilities	126,220	129,075	131,877	135,357
Total Long-term Debt	18,292	17,292	16,292	15,292
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	18,292	17,292	16,292	15,292
Total Provisions	21,828	22,078	22,527	22,974
Total Liabilities	166,340	168,445	170,695	173,622
Shareholders Equity	106,721	116,865	129,418	143,826
Minority Interests
Total Equity	106,721	116,865	129,418	143,826

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	2.9%	9.6%	9.3%	8.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(19.7%)	14.2%	18.0%	10.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.7%	14.2%	15.4%	15.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(39.04)	(13.79)	(3.76)	11.32
BVPS (Rs)	168.04	184.01	203.78	226.46
Gross Interest Cover	4.64	5.98	6.49	8.44
Effective Tax Rate	24.8%	32.0%	32.0%	32.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	24.6%	30.5%	31.3%	32.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	40.01	40.51	40.71	42.37
Inventory Days	116.46	122.68	125.99	128.02
Accounts Payables Days	72.69	67.53	66.37	65.28
ROIC (%)	7.7%	11.2%	13.7%	14.8%
ROCE (%)	11.8%	15.1%	17.7%	18.6%
Return On Average Assets	5.8%	6.1%	7.1%	7.6%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg