InCred Equities - Tata Steel

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	2,433,527	2,634,001	2,794,365	2,945,160
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	323,002	270,231	273,453	283,693
Net Profit (Rsm)	80,754	66,881	66,246	65,996
Core EPS (Rs)	6.6	5.5	5.4	5.4
Core EPS Growth	(80.8%)	(16.7%)	(0.9%)	(0.4%)
FD Core P/E (x)	21.09	25.46	25.71	25.81
DPS (Rs)	2.5	2.0	2.0	2.0
Dividend Yield	1.79%	1.43%	1.43%	1.43%
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.44	9.15	9.15	8.78
P/FCFE (x)	20.20	65.63	25.94	16.29
Net Gearing	64.6%	68.4%	68.4%	65.2%
P/BV (x)	1.65	1.59	1.53	1.47
ROE	7.4%	6.4%	6.1%	5.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	2,433,527	2,634,001	2,794,365	2,945,160
Gross Profit	2,433,527	2,634,001	2,794,365	2,945,160
Operating EBITDA	323,002	270,231	273,453	283,693
Depreciation And Amortisation	(93,352)	(98,455)	(100,129)	(107,455)
Operating EBIT	229,650	171,777	173,324	176,238
Financial Income/(Expense)	(62,987)	(67,914)	(67,914)	(67,914)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	4,181
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	10,375	10,375	10,375	10,375
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	181,219	114,237	115,784	118,698
Exceptional Items	1,133
Pre-tax Profit	182,351	114,237	115,784	118,698
Taxation	(101,598)	(47,356)	(49,538)	(52,702)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	80,754	66,881	66,246	65,996
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	80,754	66,881	66,246	65,996
Recurring Net Profit	80,252	66,881	66,246	65,996
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	80,252	66,881	66,246	65,996

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	323,002	270,231	273,453	283,693
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(37,065)	(49,782)	(41,110)	(39,286)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(29,607)
Other Operating Cashflow	(31,700)	(16,424)	(20,787)	(27,114)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(62,987)	(67,914)	(67,914)	(67,914)
Tax Paid	55,188	47,356	49,538	52,702
Cashflow From Operations	216,831	183,468	193,180	202,080
Capex	(138,148)	(160,000)	(130,000)	(100,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(48,651)	2,481	2,481	2,481
Cash Flow From Investing	(186,798)	(157,519)	(127,519)	(97,519)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	54,281
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	14	11
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(62,926)	(62,926)	(62,926)	(62,926)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(61,176)	(67,914)	(67,914)	(67,914)
Cash Flow From Financing	(69,807)	(130,829)	(130,841)	(130,841)
Total Cash Generated	(39,775)	(104,881)	(65,180)	(26,280)
Free Cashflow To Equity	84,314	25,949	65,661	104,561
Free Cashflow To Firm	93,019	93,863	133,575	172,475

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	169,873	101,014	71,855	81,597
Total Debtors	82,572	87,527	92,778	98,345
Inventories	544,153	588,981	624,839	658,558
Total Other Current Assets	70,057	70,057	70,057	70,057
Total Current Assets	866,655	847,577	859,529	908,556
Fixed Assets	1,713,277	1,774,823	1,804,693	1,797,238
Total Investments	47,803	47,803	47,803	47,803
Intangible Assets	56,017	56,017	56,017	56,017
Total Other Non-Current Assets	196,466	196,466	196,466	196,466
Total Non-current Assets	2,013,562	2,075,107	2,104,978	2,097,523
Short-term Debt	276,356	276,356	276,356	276,356
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	378,325	378,325	378,325	378,325
Other Current Liabilities	318,270	318,270	318,270	318,270
Total Current Liabilities	972,951	972,951	972,951	972,951
Total Long-term Debt	572,574	572,574	572,574	572,574
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	94,025	94,025	94,025	94,025
Total Non-current Liabilities	666,599	666,599	666,599	666,599
Total Provisions	188,915	188,915	188,915	188,915
Total Liabilities	1,828,465	1,828,465	1,828,465	1,828,465
Shareholders Equity	1,030,821	1,073,289	1,115,111	1,156,683
Minority Interests	20,931	20,931	20,931	20,931
Total Equity	1,051,752	1,094,220	1,136,042	1,177,614

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	0.4%	8.2%	6.1%	5.4%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(49.1%)	(16.3%)	1.2%	3.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.3%	10.3%	9.8%	9.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(55.61)	(61.24)	(63.63)	(62.83)
BVPS (Rs)	84.41	87.89	91.31	94.72
Gross Interest Cover	3.65	2.53	2.55	2.59
Effective Tax Rate	55.7%	41.5%	42.8%	44.4%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	38.3%	36.5%	36.9%	37.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	15.38	11.79	11.78	11.84
Inventory Days
Accounts Payables Days
ROIC (%)	5.0%	4.8%	4.6%	4.5%
ROCE (%)	11.2%	8.3%	8.2%	8.2%
Return On Average Assets	3.7%	3.7%	3.6%	3.5%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg