InCred Equities - Avalon Technologies

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	8,672	10,651	13,763	16,791
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	626	1,066	1,534	1,952
Net Profit (Rsm)	280	604	982	1,315
Core EPS (Rs)	4.3	9.2	14.9	20.0
Core EPS Growth	(46.7%)	115.9%	62.5%	33.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	188.58	87.35	53.76	40.14
DPS (Rs)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)	86.31	49.84	34.46	26.85
P/FCFE (x)	(28.09)	938.61	(1,506.75)	107.95
Net Gearing	22.3%	5.3%	1.2%	(4.6%)
P/BV (x)	9.64	8.68	7.48	6.30
ROE	5.2%	10.5%	14.9%	17.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	8,672	10,651	13,763	16,791
Gross Profit	3,126	3,854	4,982	6,179
Operating EBITDA	626	1,066	1,534	1,952
Depreciation And Amortisation	(229)	(286)	(310)	(360)
Operating EBIT	397	779	1,224	1,592
Financial Income/(Expense)	(164)	(173)	(158)	(154)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	148	226	242	316
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	381	833	1,309	1,753
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	381	833	1,309	1,753
Taxation	(101)	(228)	(327)	(438)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	280	604	982	1,315
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	280	604	982	1,315
Recurring Net Profit	280	604	982	1,315
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	280	604	982	1,315

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	381	833	1,309	1,753
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(710)	(477)	(977)	(833)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	229	286	310	360
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	164	173	158	154
Tax Paid	(101)	(228)	(327)	(438)
Cashflow From Operations	(37)	586	472	996
Capex	(423)	(500)	(500)	(500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	3	3	3	3
Cash Flow From Investing	(420)	(497)	(497)	(497)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,421)	(33)	(10)	(10)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(1,917)	807	203	206
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,338)	774	193	196
Total Cash Generated	(3,796)	863	168	695
Free Cashflow To Equity	(1,879)	56	(35)	489
Free Cashflow To Firm	(622)	(84)	(182)	345

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	423	1,286	1,515	1,973
Total Debtors	1,869	2,130	2,408	2,930
Inventories	3,163	3,676	4,523	5,285
Total Other Current Assets	235	233	268	335
Total Current Assets	5,691	7,326	8,714	10,523
Fixed Assets	1,666	1,876	2,028	2,137
Total Investments
Intangible Assets	21	21	17	13
Total Other Non-Current Assets	533	951	463	370
Total Non-current Assets	2,220	2,848	2,507	2,521
Short-term Debt	1,108	1,086	1,086	1,086
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	974	1,182	1,345	1,669
Other Current Liabilities	700	788	807	1,001
Total Current Liabilities	2,782	3,055	3,237	3,756
Total Long-term Debt	533	523	512	502
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	362	362	256	256
Total Non-current Liabilities	896	885	768	758
Total Provisions	156	156	156	156
Total Liabilities	3,834	4,097	4,162	4,669
Shareholders Equity	5,473	6,078	7,059	8,374
Minority Interests
Total Equity	5,473	6,078	7,059	8,374

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(8.2%)	22.8%	29.2%	22.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(44.5%)	70.3%	44.0%	27.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	7.2%	10.0%	11.1%	11.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(18.54)	(4.90)	(1.26)	5.86
BVPS (Rs)	83.29	92.49	107.42	127.43
Gross Interest Cover	2.42	4.51	7.77	10.30
Effective Tax Rate	26.5%	27.4%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	82.72	68.52	60.17	58.02
Inventory Days	208.74	183.67	170.42	168.68
Accounts Payables Days	78.72	57.89	52.51	51.82
ROIC (%)	5.1%	8.4%	12.1%	14.2%
ROCE (%)	5.1%	10.5%	15.0%	17.1%
Return On Average Assets	4.1%	8.1%	10.3%	11.8%

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg