InCred Equities - Avalon Technologies

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	8,672	10,626	13,464	15,881
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	626	1,044	1,478	1,761
Net Profit (Rsm)	280	560	941	1,180
Core EPS (Rs)	4.3	8.5	14.3	18.0
Core EPS Growth	(46.7%)	100.1%	68.0%	25.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	200.63	100.25	59.66	47.59
DPS (Rs)
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)	91.70	54.12	38.04	31.64
P/FCFE (x)	(29.89)	1,326.31	2,271.90	102.51
Net Gearing	22.3%	6.2%	1.0%	(5.6%)
P/BV (x)	10.26	9.31	8.05	6.89
ROE	5.2%	9.7%	14.5%	15.6%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	8,672	10,626	13,464	15,881
Gross Profit	3,126	3,822	4,874	5,844
Operating EBITDA	626	1,044	1,478	1,761
Depreciation And Amortisation	(229)	(285)	(310)	(360)
Operating EBIT	397	759	1,169	1,401
Financial Income/(Expense)	(164)	(161)	(158)	(154)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	148	175	244	327
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	381	774	1,255	1,573
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	381	774	1,255	1,573
Taxation	(101)	(214)	(314)	(393)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	280	560	941	1,180
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	280	560	941	1,180
Recurring Net Profit	280	560	941	1,180
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	280	560	941	1,180

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	381	821	1,255	1,573
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(710)	(482)	(876)	(639)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	229	285	310	360
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	164	161	158	154
Tax Paid	(101)	(214)	(314)	(393)
Cashflow From Operations	(37)	572	532	1,055
Capex	(423)	(500)	(500)	(500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	3	3	3	3
Cash Flow From Investing	(420)	(497)	(497)	(497)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,421)	(33)	(10)	(10)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(1,917)	818	203	206
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,338)	785	193	196
Total Cash Generated	(3,796)	861	228	754
Free Cashflow To Equity	(1,879)	42	25	548
Free Cashflow To Firm	(622)	(86)	(122)	404

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	423	1,236	1,525	2,042
Total Debtors	1,869	2,135	2,381	2,814
Inventories	3,163	3,675	4,433	5,029
Total Other Current Assets	235	234	265	322
Total Current Assets	5,691	7,280	8,603	10,207
Fixed Assets	1,666	1,877	2,029	2,139
Total Investments
Intangible Assets	21	21	17	13
Total Other Non-Current Assets	533	951	463	370
Total Non-current Assets	2,220	2,849	2,509	2,522
Short-term Debt	1,108	1,086	1,086	1,086
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	974	1,181	1,329	1,609
Other Current Liabilities	700	787	798	966
Total Current Liabilities	2,782	3,055	3,213	3,661
Total Long-term Debt	533	523	512	502
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	362	362	256	256
Total Non-current Liabilities	896	885	768	758
Total Provisions	156	156	156	156
Total Liabilities	3,834	4,096	4,137	4,575
Shareholders Equity	5,473	6,034	6,975	8,155
Minority Interests
Total Equity	5,473	6,034	6,975	8,155

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(8.2%)	22.5%	26.7%	18.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(44.5%)	66.9%	41.5%	19.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	7.2%	9.8%	11.0%	11.1%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(18.54)	(5.66)	(1.11)	6.91
BVPS (Rs)	83.29	91.81	106.14	124.09
Gross Interest Cover	2.42	4.71	7.41	9.07
Effective Tax Rate	26.5%	27.6%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	82.72	68.76	61.20	59.69
Inventory Days	208.74	183.43	172.26	172.05
Accounts Payables Days	78.72	57.81	53.34	53.43
ROIC (%)	5.1%	8.2%	11.7%	12.9%
ROCE (%)	5.1%	10.3%	14.4%	15.3%
Return On Average Assets	4.1%	7.5%	10.0%	10.9%

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg