* price as on 04 Feb 2025
Financial
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm) 4,582 4,353 5,223 5,746
Operating EBITDA (Rsm) (59) (617) 527 658
Net Profit (Rsm) (469) (1,075) 434 489
Core EPS (Rs) (23.9) (54.8) 22.1 24.9
Core EPS Growth (283.2%) 129.2% (140.4%) 12.6%
FD Core P/E (x) (30.05) (13.11) 32.49 28.85
DPS (Rs) (1.5) (3.4) 1.4 1.5
Dividend Yield (0.21%) (0.47%) 0.19% 0.21%
EV/EBITDA (x) (318.71) (35.96) 41.35 32.16
P/FCFE (x) 9.04 (4.62) 20.20 13.82
Net Gearing 133.0% 307.1% 254.7% 203.8%
P/BV (x) 3.82 5.25 4.56 3.97
ROE (11.9%) (33.7%) 15.0% 14.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues 4,582 4,353 5,223 5,746
Gross Profit 1,389 871 2,089 2,298
Operating EBITDA (59) (617) 527 658
Depreciation And Amortisation (363) (535) (688) (695)
Operating EBIT (422) (1,152) (160) (37)
Financial Income/(Expense) (252) (350) (300) (350)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 56 65 1,040 1,040
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) (617) (1,437) 580 653
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit (617) (1,437) 580 653
Taxation 149 362 (146) (165)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax (469) (1,075) 434 489
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit (469) (1,075) 434 489
Recurring Net Profit (469) (1,075) 434 489
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit (469) (1,075) 434 489
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
EBITDA (59) (617) 527 658
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital 70 138 (524) (314)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense (42) 0 0 0
Other Operating Cashflow 1,576 415 1,340 1,390
Net Interest (Paid)/Received (252) (350) (300) (350)
Tax Paid 149 362 (146) (165)
Cashflow From Operations 1,441 (52) 898 1,220
Capex (1,243) (3,000) (200) (200)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments (166)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing (1,409) (3,000) (200) (200)
Debt Raised/(repaid) 1,527
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid 29 66 (27) (30)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow (252) (350) (300) (350)
Cash Flow From Financing 1,304 (284) (327) (380)
Total Cash Generated 1,336 (3,336) 371 639
Free Cashflow To Equity 1,559 (3,052) 698 1,020
Free Cashflow To Firm 284 (2,702) 998 1,370
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents 24 (3,311) (2,940) (2,301)
Total Debtors 1,690 1,606 1,927 2,119
Inventories 1,958 1,861 2,233 2,456
Total Other Current Assets 312 312 312 312
Total Current Assets 3,985 467 1,531 2,586
Fixed Assets 5,019 7,484 6,997 6,502
Total Investments 166 166 166 166
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets 579 579 579 579
Total Non-current Assets 5,764 8,229 7,742 7,247
Short-term Debt 2,949 2,949 2,949 2,949
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 893 848 1,018 1,120
Other Current Liabilities 130 130 130 130
Total Current Liabilities 3,972 3,927 4,097 4,198
Total Long-term Debt 1,990 1,990 1,990 1,990
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 21 21 21 21
Total Non-current Liabilities 2,011 2,011 2,011 2,011
Total Provisions 72 72 72 72
Total Liabilities 6,054 6,009 6,179 6,281
Shareholders Equity 3,693 2,684 3,091 3,550
Minority Interests 2 2 2 2
Total Equity 3,695 2,687 3,094 3,552
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue Growth (27.1%) (5.0%) 20.0% 10.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth (107.8%) 943.4% (185.5%) 24.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin (1.3%) (14.2%) 10.1% 11.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs) (250.63) (420.73) (401.82) (369.21)
BVPS (Rs) 188.32 136.90 157.66 181.03
Gross Interest Cover (1.67) (3.29) (0.53) (0.11)
Effective Tax Rate 25.2% 25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 6.2% 6.2% 6.2% 6.2%
Accounts Receivables Days 129.02 138.18 123.41 128.51
Inventory Days 280.48 200.15 238.36 248.21
Accounts Payables Days 152.31 91.24 108.66 113.15
ROIC (%) (4.1%) (10.1%) (1.1%) (0.3%)
ROCE (%) (5.1%) (14.1%) (2.0%) (0.4%)
Return On Average Assets (2.8%) (8.8%) 7.3% 7.9%

Analyst(s)

Satish KUMAR

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

Abbas PUNJANI

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com