InCred Equities - Ashoka Buildcon Ltd

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue (Rsm)	50,705	44,916	55,208	58,223
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	15,752	17,765	21,663	22,696
Net Profit (Rsm)	1,604	(386)	1,161	2,118
Core EPS (Rs)	3.8	(0.9)	2.8	5.0
Core EPS Growth	(375.4%)	(124.1%)	(400.6%)	82.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	61.50	(255.33)	84.95	46.57
DPS (Rs)		0.5	0.5	0.5
Dividend Yield		0.22%	0.22%	0.22%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.87	5.78	4.62	4.24
P/FCFE (x)	22.17	(13.92)	382.58	10.76
Net Gearing	1,425.3%	2,467.6%	1,623.4%	998.0%
P/BV (x)	23.80	26.26	20.06	14.02
ROE	45.7%	(9.8%)	26.8%	35.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Net Revenues	50,705	44,916	55,208	58,223
Gross Profit	20,501	16,619	20,427	21,542
Operating EBITDA	15,752	17,765	21,663	22,696
Depreciation And Amortisation	(2,998)	(5,362)	(5,546)	(5,750)
Operating EBIT	12,754	12,404	16,117	16,946
Financial Income/(Expense)	(9,608)	(12,751)	(12,714)	(11,895)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,146	(348)	3,403	5,051
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,146	(348)	3,403	5,051
Taxation	(1,659)	(808)	(1,386)	(1,638)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	1,487	(1,156)	2,018	3,413
Minority Interests	117	770	(857)	(1,295)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	1,604	(386)	1,161	2,118
Recurring Net Profit	1,604	(386)	1,161	2,118
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	1,604	(386)	1,161	2,118

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
EBITDA	15,752	17,765	21,663	22,696
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(2,059)	0
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(9,608)	(12,751)	(12,714)	(11,895)
Tax Paid	(1,659)	(808)	(1,386)	(1,638)
Cashflow From Operations	2,426	4,206	7,564	9,163
Capex	(881)	(31,016)	(3,968)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	972	(57)	(64)
Cash Flow From Investing	91	(31,072)	(4,033)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,931	19,784	(3,273)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(123)	176	183
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid		(220)	(220)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	927	1,293	1,001
Cash Flow From Financing	2,735	21,033	(2,309)
Total Cash Generated	5,252	(5,833)	1,222	9,163
Free Cashflow To Equity	4,448	(7,082)	258	9,163
Free Cashflow To Firm	12,943	(13,415)	16,895	22,059

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Cash And Equivalents	7,544	860	1,525	2,229
Total Debtors	9,091	9,091	9,091	9,091
Inventories	4,348	4,348	4,348	4,348
Total Other Current Assets	34,967	34,967	34,967	34,967
Total Current Assets	55,950	49,266	49,931	50,635
Fixed Assets	51,619	77,273	75,695	73,973
Total Investments	1,864	1,921	1,985	2,056
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	828	828	828	828
Total Non-current Assets	54,311	80,022	78,509	76,858
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	15,560	15,560	15,560	15,560
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	15,560	15,560	15,560	15,560
Total Long-term Debt	84,836	105,064	102,235	97,905
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	84,836	105,064	102,235	97,905
Total Provisions	4,441	4,441	4,441	4,441
Total Liabilities	104,838	125,065	122,236	117,906
Shareholders Equity	4,143	3,756	4,916	7,033
Minority Interests	1,280	467	1,287	2,554
Total Equity	5,423	4,223	6,204	9,587

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue Growth	2.9%	(11.4%)	22.9%	5.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	13.0%	12.8%	21.9%	4.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	31.1%	39.6%	39.2%	39.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(183.56)	(247.46)	(239.17)	(227.21)
BVPS (Rs)	9.84	8.92	11.68	16.70
Gross Interest Cover	1.22	0.92	1.21	1.31
Effective Tax Rate	52.7%		40.7%	32.4%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio		(56.9%)	18.9%	10.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	80.10	73.88	60.10	56.99
Inventory Days	52.04	56.08	45.63	43.26
Accounts Payables Days	183.01	200.71	163.29	154.84
ROIC (%)	14.9%	14.5%	14.5%	15.5%
ROCE (%)	15.4%	13.1%	15.4%	16.6%
Return On Average Assets	10.3%	9.7%	11.4%	12.0%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com