InCred Equities - Berger Paints India Limited

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	115,447	121,741	130,177	142,802
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	18,561	19,164	20,861	24,029
Net Profit (Rsm)	11,804	12,126	13,322	15,688
Core EPS (Rs)			11.4	13.5
Core EPS Growth				17.8%
FD Core P/E (x)			47.20	40.08
DPS (Rs)		3.9	4.3	5.1
Dividend Yield		0.84%	0.92%	1.09%
EV/EBITDA (x)	(0.08)	(0.17)	29.88	25.62
P/FCFE (x)			84.65	44.60
Net Gearing	(2.7%)	(5.0%)	(7.2%)	(15.4%)
P/BV (x)		9.17	8.24	7.37
ROE	20.5%	18.6%	18.4%	19.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	115,447	121,741	130,177	142,802
Gross Profit	47,828	51,477	55,668	61,351
Operating EBITDA	18,561	19,164	20,861	24,029
Depreciation And Amortisation	(3,542)	(3,837)	(4,081)	(4,266)
Operating EBIT	15,019	15,326	16,780	19,763
Financial Income/(Expense)	315	451	509	652
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	351	200	250	250
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	15,685	15,977	17,539	20,665
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	15,685	15,977	17,539	20,665
Taxation	(3,857)	(3,851)	(4,218)	(4,977)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	11,828	12,126	13,322	15,688
Minority Interests	(24)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	11,804	12,126	13,322	15,688
Recurring Net Profit	11,804	12,126	13,322	15,688
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	11,804	12,126	13,322	15,688

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	18,561	19,164	20,861	24,029
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(3,030)	(6,615)	(7,225)	(3,106)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(633)	(658)	(730)	(730)
Tax Paid	(3,857)	(3,851)	(4,218)	(4,977)
Cashflow From Operations	11,042	8,040	8,689	15,216
Capex	(4,177)	(2,500)	(2,500)	(2,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(1,629)	1,109	1,239	1,382
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,806)	(1,391)	(1,261)	(1,118)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(832)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid		(5,267)	(5,786)	(6,849)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow		394	444	444
Cash Flow From Financing		(4,873)	(5,341)	(6,404)
Total Cash Generated		1,776	2,086	7,693
Free Cashflow To Equity	4,404	6,649	7,428	14,097
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,869	7,307	8,158	14,827

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	8,342	10,118	12,204	19,897
Total Debtors	15,357	17,425	21,278	22,983
Inventories	23,661	27,784	32,133	35,435
Total Other Current Assets	3,775	3,775	3,775	3,775
Total Current Assets	51,134	59,101	69,390	82,090
Fixed Assets	34,459	33,121	31,540	29,774
Total Investments	2,016	2,016	2,016	2,016
Intangible Assets	3,231	3,231	3,231	3,231
Total Other Non-Current Assets	473	474	534	585
Total Non-current Assets	40,179	38,843	37,322	35,607
Short-term Debt	2,515	2,515	2,515	2,515
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	21,445	21,021	22,060	24,011
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	23,960	23,536	24,575	26,526
Total Long-term Debt	4,188	4,188	4,188	4,188
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	4,188	4,188	4,188	4,188
Total Provisions	1,500	1,500	1,500	1,500
Total Liabilities	29,647	29,223	30,262	32,213
Shareholders Equity	61,541	68,594	76,325	85,358
Minority Interests	126	126	126	126
Total Equity	61,667	68,720	76,451	85,484

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	3.1%	5.5%	6.9%	9.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(0.3%)	3.2%	8.9%	15.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.1%	15.7%	16.0%	16.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)		2.93	4.72	11.32
BVPS (Rs)		58.84	65.47	73.22
Gross Interest Cover	23.74	23.28	22.99	27.07
Effective Tax Rate	24.6%	24.1%	24.0%	24.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio		43.4%	43.4%	43.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	44.86	49.14	54.26	56.56
Inventory Days	122.69	133.62	146.76	151.39
Accounts Payables Days	114.04	110.30	105.52	103.23
ROIC (%)	25.2%	23.7%	23.8%	27.5%
ROCE (%)	23.5%	21.6%	21.5%	22.8%
Return On Average Assets	13.2%	12.3%	12.5%	13.4%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg