InCred Equities - Cummins India Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	88,164	102,551	118,418	137,458
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	17,613	21,318	24,963	29,828
Net Profit (Rsm)	16,466	19,621	22,701	26,746
Core EPS (Rs)	59.4	70.8	81.9	96.5
Core EPS Growth	43.9%	19.2%	15.7%	17.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	55.58	46.64	40.31	34.22
DPS (Rs)	19.0	19.0	19.0	19.0
Dividend Yield	0.58%	0.58%	0.58%	0.58%
EV/EBITDA (x)	51.16	42.15	35.71	29.36
P/FCFE (x)	71.12	127.08	74.03	44.21
Net Gearing	(22.7%)	(21.9%)	(25.4%)	(34.1%)
P/BV (x)	14.85	12.04	9.80	7.96
ROE	28.6%	28.5%	26.8%	25.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	89,586	104,148	120,254	139,585
Gross Profit	31,886	38,014	44,254	51,646
Operating EBITDA	17,613	21,318	24,963	29,828
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,576)	(1,609)	(1,700)	(1,786)
Operating EBIT	16,037	19,708	23,263	28,042
Financial Income/(Expense)	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	5,678	6,132	6,623	7,153
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	21,447	25,544	29,559	34,835
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	21,447	25,544	29,559	34,835
Taxation	(4,982)	(5,923)	(6,858)	(8,089)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	16,466	19,621	22,701	26,746
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	16,466	19,621	22,701	26,746
Recurring Net Profit	16,466	19,621	22,701	26,746
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	16,466	19,621	22,701	26,746

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	17,613	21,318	24,963	29,828
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	3,834	4,226	4,597	5,008
Change In Working Capital	(1,569)	(11,455)	(9,637)	(5,402)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,576	1,609	1,700	1,786
Other Operating Cashflow	(5,410)	(5,835)	(6,296)	(6,793)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Tax Paid	(5,081)	(5,923)	(6,858)	(8,089)
Cashflow From Operations	10,697	3,643	8,141	15,977
Capex	(2,205)	(2,103)	(1,913)	(1,922)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	4,375	5,661	6,133	6,643
Cash Flow From Investing	2,170	3,558	4,220	4,721
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(5,267)	(5,267)	(5,267)	(5,267)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Cash Flow From Financing	(5,535)	(5,564)	(5,594)	(5,626)
Total Cash Generated	7,332	1,637	6,767	15,072
Free Cashflow To Equity	12,867	7,201	12,361	20,698
Free Cashflow To Firm	13,134	7,498	12,687	21,058

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	14,985	17,715	24,958	40,551
Total Debtors	20,776	24,254	29,652	34,418
Inventories	9,369	14,267	18,121	21,033
Total Other Current Assets	3,720	8,560	11,531	13,385
Total Current Assets	48,850	64,795	84,261	109,387
Fixed Assets	23,262	23,756	23,969	24,105
Total Investments	12,154	12,626	13,116	13,625
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	35,416	36,381	37,084	37,730
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	14,024	14,837	16,473	19,121
Other Current Liabilities	7,328	8,275	9,225	10,708
Total Current Liabilities	21,352	23,112	25,698	29,829
Total Long-term Debt	1,000	1,100	1,210	1,331
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,000	1,100	1,210	1,331
Total Provisions	941	979	1,018	1,058
Total Liabilities	23,293	25,191	27,926	32,219
Shareholders Equity	61,631	75,985	93,420	114,899
Minority Interests
Total Equity	61,631	75,985	93,420	114,899

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	15.8%	16.3%	15.5%	16.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	41.7%	21.0%	17.1%	19.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	20.0%	20.8%	21.1%	21.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	50.45	59.94	85.67	141.49
BVPS (Rs)	222.33	274.12	337.01	414.50
Gross Interest Cover	59.88	66.36	71.21	78.03
Effective Tax Rate	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	32.0%	26.8%	23.2%	19.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	74.77	78.91	81.81	83.77
Inventory Days	57.66	65.22	77.77	81.26
Accounts Payables Days	80.74	79.64	75.19	73.87
ROIC (%)	34.4%	31.0%	30.3%	33.3%
ROCE (%)	26.3%	27.8%	26.8%	26.3%
Return On Average Assets	20.7%	21.4%	20.6%	20.1%

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg