InCred Equities - Cummins India Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	88,164	104,155	119,684	138,944
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	17,613	21,789	25,334	30,267
Net Profit (Rsm)	16,466	19,981	22,985	27,082
Core EPS (Rs)	59.4	72.1	82.9	97.7
Core EPS Growth	43.9%	21.3%	15.0%	17.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	51.37	42.33	36.80	31.23
DPS (Rs)	19.0	19.0	19.0	19.0
Dividend Yield	0.62%	0.62%	0.62%	0.62%
EV/EBITDA (x)	47.23	38.06	32.44	26.63
P/FCFE (x)	65.74	117.75	66.82	40.34
Net Gearing	(22.7%)	(21.7%)	(25.5%)	(34.3%)
P/BV (x)	13.73	11.08	8.99	7.30
ROE	28.6%	29.0%	27.0%	25.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	89,586	105,788	121,554	141,109
Gross Profit	31,886	38,613	44,732	52,210
Operating EBITDA	17,613	21,789	25,334	30,267
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,576)	(1,609)	(1,700)	(1,786)
Operating EBIT	16,037	20,179	23,635	28,481
Financial Income/(Expense)	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	5,678	6,132	6,623	7,153
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	21,447	26,014	29,931	35,274
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	21,447	26,014	29,931	35,274
Taxation	(4,982)	(6,033)	(6,946)	(8,193)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	16,466	19,981	22,985	27,082
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	16,466	19,981	22,985	27,082
Recurring Net Profit	16,466	19,981	22,985	27,082
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	16,466	19,981	22,985	27,082

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	17,613	21,789	25,334	30,267
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	3,834	4,226	4,597	5,008
Change In Working Capital	(1,569)	(11,833)	(9,623)	(5,465)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	1,576	1,609	1,700	1,786
Other Operating Cashflow	(5,410)	(5,835)	(6,296)	(6,793)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Tax Paid	(5,081)	(6,033)	(6,946)	(8,193)
Cashflow From Operations	10,697	3,626	8,440	16,250
Capex	(2,205)	(2,103)	(1,913)	(1,922)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	4,375	5,661	6,133	6,643
Cash Flow From Investing	2,170	3,558	4,220	4,721
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(5,267)	(5,267)	(5,267)	(5,267)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(268)	(297)	(327)	(359)
Cash Flow From Financing	(5,535)	(5,564)	(5,594)	(5,626)
Total Cash Generated	7,332	1,620	7,066	15,345
Free Cashflow To Equity	12,867	7,184	12,659	20,971
Free Cashflow To Firm	13,134	7,481	12,986	21,331

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	14,985	17,697	25,239	41,105
Total Debtors	20,776	24,636	29,972	34,794
Inventories	9,369	14,492	18,316	21,263
Total Other Current Assets	3,720	8,695	11,656	13,531
Total Current Assets	48,850	65,519	85,183	110,693
Fixed Assets	23,262	23,756	23,969	24,105
Total Investments	12,154	12,626	13,116	13,625
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	35,416	36,381	37,084	37,730
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	14,024	15,071	16,651	19,330
Other Current Liabilities	7,328	8,405	9,325	10,825
Total Current Liabilities	21,352	23,476	25,976	30,155
Total Long-term Debt	1,000	1,100	1,210	1,331
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,000	1,100	1,210	1,331
Total Provisions	941	979	1,018	1,058
Total Liabilities	23,293	25,555	28,204	32,544
Shareholders Equity	61,631	76,345	94,064	115,879
Minority Interests
Total Equity	61,631	76,345	94,064	115,879

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	15.8%	18.1%	14.9%	16.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	41.7%	23.7%	16.3%	19.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	20.0%	20.9%	21.2%	21.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	50.45	59.87	86.68	143.49
BVPS (Rs)	222.33	275.42	339.34	418.03
Gross Interest Cover	59.88	67.94	72.34	79.25
Effective Tax Rate	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%	23.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	32.0%	26.4%	22.9%	19.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	74.77	78.34	81.99	83.76
Inventory Days	57.66	64.82	77.94	81.25
Accounts Payables Days	80.74	79.04	75.36	73.87
ROIC (%)	34.4%	31.5%	30.6%	33.6%
ROCE (%)	26.3%	28.4%	27.1%	26.5%
Return On Average Assets	20.7%	21.7%	20.7%	20.2%

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg