InCred Equities - Astral Ltd.

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	56,414	61,422	69,972	79,747
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	9,183	9,771	11,391	13,060
Net Profit (Rsm)	5,461	5,520	6,444	7,406
Core EPS (Rs)	20.3	20.5	24.0	27.5
Core EPS Growth	19.3%	1.1%	16.7%	14.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	66.04	65.33	55.96	48.69
DPS (Rs)	3.8	3.8	3.8	3.8
Dividend Yield
EV/EBITDA (x)	38.80	36.37	30.96	26.70
P/FCFE (x)	(751.32)	182.77	96.82	72.08
Net Gearing	(15.7%)	(16.4%)	(20.7%)	(26.1%)
P/BV (x)	11.31	9.91	8.62	7.48
ROE	18.5%	16.2%	16.5%	16.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	56,414	61,422	69,972	79,747
Gross Profit	21,824	23,534	27,070	30,929
Operating EBITDA	9,183	9,771	11,391	13,060
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,976)	(2,467)	(2,867)	(3,267)
Operating EBIT	7,207	7,304	8,524	9,793
Financial Income/(Expense)	(249)	(280)	(278)	(276)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(1)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	379	379	398	418
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,336	7,403	8,644	9,935
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	7,336	7,403	8,644	9,935
Taxation	(1,880)	(1,888)	(2,204)	(2,533)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	5,456	5,515	6,439	7,401
Minority Interests	5	5	5	5
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	5,461	5,520	6,444	7,406
Recurring Net Profit	5,461	5,520	6,444	7,406
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	5,461	5,520	6,444	7,406

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	9,183	9,771	11,391	13,060
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,143)	(1,009)	(581)	(665)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(291)	(322)	(322)	(322)
Tax Paid	(1,880)	(1,888)	(2,204)	(2,533)
Cashflow From Operations	5,869	6,552	8,283	9,539
Capex	(5,581)	(5,000)	(5,000)	(5,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	420	421	442	464
Cash Flow From Investing	(5,161)	(4,579)	(4,558)	(4,536)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,188)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,009)	(1,009)	(1,009)	(1,010)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	194
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,003)	(1,009)	(1,009)	(1,010)
Total Cash Generated	(1,295)	964	2,716	3,994
Free Cashflow To Equity	(480)	1,973	3,725	5,003
Free Cashflow To Firm	999	2,296	4,047	5,326

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,096	7,059	9,775	13,770
Total Debtors	3,758	4,177	4,758	5,423
Inventories	9,134	9,827	11,195	12,760
Total Other Current Assets	869	1,234	1,405	1,601
Total Current Assets	19,857	22,298	27,134	33,553
Fixed Assets	19,161	21,694	23,827	25,561
Total Investments	602	602	602	602
Intangible Assets	3,133	3,133	3,133	3,133
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,206	2,206	2,206	2,206
Total Non-current Assets	25,102	27,635	29,768	31,502
Short-term Debt	529	529	529	529
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	8,719	9,520	10,846	12,361
Other Current Liabilities	1,868	1,536	1,749	1,994
Total Current Liabilities	11,116	11,585	13,124	14,883
Total Long-term Debt	435	435	435	435
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	230	230	230	230
Total Non-current Liabilities	665	665	665	665
Total Provisions	492	492	492	492
Total Liabilities	12,273	12,742	14,281	16,040
Shareholders Equity	31,881	36,387	41,818	48,210
Minority Interests	804	804	804	804
Total Equity	32,685	37,191	42,622	49,014

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	9.4%	8.9%	13.9%	14.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	13.4%	6.4%	16.6%	14.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.3%	15.9%	16.3%	16.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	19.08	22.66	32.76	47.61
BVPS (Rs)	118.52	135.27	155.46	179.22
Gross Interest Cover	24.77	22.66	26.44	30.38
Effective Tax Rate	25.6%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	23.63	23.58	23.30	23.30
Inventory Days	94.34	91.34	89.43	89.55
Accounts Payables Days	88.21	87.86	86.63	86.75
ROIC (%)	31.3%	26.4%	27.3%	28.9%
ROCE (%)	22.4%	20.2%	20.7%	20.8%
Return On Average Assets	13.1%	12.2%	12.6%	12.6%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1500 shivam.agarwal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg