InCred Equities - UltraTech Cement Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	759,551	899,461	994,187	1,086,185
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	125,575	175,560	215,325	242,995
Net Profit (Rsm)	60,391	87,804	116,235	134,662
Core EPS (Rs)	209.5	298.0	394.4	457.0
Core EPS Growth	(14.3%)	42.3%	32.4%	15.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	59.75	41.52	31.36	27.07
DPS (Rs)	77.5	74.5	98.6	114.2
Dividend Yield	0.75%	0.60%
EV/EBITDA (x)	30.46	22.12	17.97	15.75
P/FCFE (x)	130.01	321.45	79.31	44.96
Net Gearing	25.0%	25.7%	21.9%	15.4%
P/BV (x)	5.16	4.74	4.29	3.86
ROE	9.3%	11.9%	14.4%	15.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	759,551	899,461	994,187	1,086,185
Gross Profit	759,551	899,461	994,187	1,086,185
Operating EBITDA	125,575	175,560	215,325	242,995
Depreciation And Amortisation	(40,150)	(44,967)	(50,364)	(56,407)
Operating EBIT	85,425	130,593	164,962	186,588
Financial Income/(Expense)	(16,505)	(19,476)	(15,581)	(12,465)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	(199)	(199)	(199)	(199)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	7,442	7,814	7,970	8,129
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	76,162	118,731	157,152	182,053
Exceptional Items	(881)
Pre-tax Profit	75,281	118,731	157,152	182,053
Taxation	(14,885)	(30,922)	(40,911)	(47,386)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	60,396	87,809	116,240	134,667
Minority Interests	(5)	(5)	(5)	(5)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	60,391	87,804	116,235	134,662
Recurring Net Profit	61,098	87,804	116,235	134,662
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	61,098	87,804	116,235	134,662

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	125,575	175,560	215,325	242,995
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(6,711)	(465)	4,328	4,972
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	7,442	7,814	7,970	8,129
Other Operating Cashflow	9,941	9,941	9,941	9,941
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(16,505)	(19,476)	(15,581)	(12,465)
Tax Paid	(13,006)	(30,922)	(40,911)	(47,386)
Cashflow From Operations	106,734	142,452	181,071	206,186
Capex	(89,506)	(98,144)	(82,748)	(66,705)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(75,538)	(28,967)	(40,364)	(46,407)
Cash Flow From Investing	(165,045)	(127,112)	(123,112)	(113,112)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	86,064	(4,000)	(12,000)	(12,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(670)	(4,295)	(34,811)	(40,362)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(27,519)	(26,451)	(35,016)	(40,567)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(7,117)	(5,645)	24,871	30,422
Cash Flow From Financing	50,758	(40,391)	(56,956)	(62,507)
Total Cash Generated	(7,553)	(25,052)	1,003	30,567
Free Cashflow To Equity	27,754	11,340	45,960	81,074
Free Cashflow To Firm	(41,805)	34,816	73,541	105,539

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	45,324	20,272	21,275	51,842
Total Debtors	58,903	61,607	68,095	74,396
Inventories	95,630	103,500	111,676	122,010
Total Other Current Assets	37,516	43,174	47,721	52,137
Total Current Assets	237,372	228,553	248,767	300,385
Fixed Assets	868,824	965,969	1,047,717	1,113,422
Total Investments	22,974	22,974	22,974	22,974
Intangible Assets	168,427	152,427	142,427	132,427
Total Other Non-Current Assets	39,374	40,374	41,374	42,374
Total Non-current Assets	1,099,600	1,181,744	1,254,492	1,311,197
Short-term Debt	72,502	72,502	72,502	72,502
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	93,275	96,017	101,558	110,101
Other Current Liabilities	157,873	170,898	188,895	206,375
Total Current Liabilities	323,650	339,417	362,956	388,979
Total Long-term Debt	157,808	153,808	141,808	129,808
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	116,581	116,581	116,581	116,581
Total Non-current Liabilities	274,388	270,388	258,388	246,388
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	598,038	609,805	621,344	635,367
Shareholders Equity	707,062	768,620	850,043	944,343
Minority Interests	31,872	31,872	31,872	31,872
Total Equity	738,934	800,491	881,915	976,215

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	7.1%	18.4%	10.5%	9.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(3.2%)	39.8%	22.7%	12.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.5%	19.5%	21.7%	22.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(627.75)	(699.19)	(655.07)	(510.61)
BVPS (Rs)	2,399.42	2,608.32	2,884.63	3,204.64
Gross Interest Cover	5.18	6.71	10.59	14.97
Effective Tax Rate	19.8%	26.0%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	44.9%	25.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	24.43	24.45	23.81	23.94
Inventory Days	(42.99)	(40.40)	(39.50)	(39.26)
Accounts Payables Days	51.26	47.72	46.30	45.81
ROIC (%)	8.4%	11.9%	14.1%	15.3%
ROCE (%)	10.2%	13.1%	15.5%	16.4%
Return On Average Assets	6.6%	7.8%	9.0%	9.4%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg