InCred Equities - UltraTech Cement Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	709,081	729,802	824,135	922,558
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	129,686	124,306	161,311	198,640
Net Profit (Rsm)	71,490	61,686	84,470	110,894
Core EPS (Rs)	245.8	213.7	292.6	384.2
Core EPS Growth	40.1%	(13.1%)	36.9%	31.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	45.43	52.65	38.45	29.28
DPS (Rs)	70.0	53.4	73.2	96.0
Dividend Yield	0.75%	0.47%	0.65%
EV/EBITDA (x)	25.36	26.74	20.71	16.71
P/FCFE (x)	68.23	(626.08)	(141.90)	1,340.70
Net Gearing	6.7%	11.8%	13.2%	9.2%
P/BV (x)	5.39	5.03	4.61	4.16
ROE	12.4%	9.9%	12.5%	14.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	709,081	729,802	824,135	922,558
Gross Profit	709,081	729,802	824,135	922,558
Operating EBITDA	129,686	124,306	161,311	198,640
Depreciation And Amortisation	(31,453)	(35,919)	(41,307)	(47,503)
Operating EBIT	98,233	88,387	120,004	151,136
Financial Income/(Expense)	(9,680)	(13,358)	(14,427)	(10,099)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	220	220	220	220
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	6,170	8,020	8,261	8,509
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	94,942	83,269	114,058	149,766
Exceptional Items	720
Pre-tax Profit	95,662	83,269	114,058	149,766
Taxation	(24,183)	(21,593)	(29,598)	(38,882)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	71,480	61,676	84,460	110,884
Minority Interests	10	10	10	10
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	71,490	61,686	84,470	110,894
Recurring Net Profit	70,952	61,686	84,470	110,894
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	70,952	61,686	84,470	110,894

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	129,686	124,306	161,311	198,640
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(3,372)	5,427	7,557	5,244
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	6,170	8,020	8,261	8,509
Other Operating Cashflow	(20,877)	(20,877)	(20,877)	(20,877)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(9,680)	(13,358)	(14,427)	(10,099)
Tax Paid	16,505	(21,593)	(29,598)	(38,882)
Cashflow From Operations	118,431	81,924	112,227	142,534
Capex	(88,841)	(94,192)	(87,805)	(66,608)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	16,970	(35,919)	(41,307)	(47,503)
Cash Flow From Investing	(71,871)	(130,112)	(129,112)	(114,112)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,047	43,000	(6,000)	(26,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(825)	(3,392)	(4,559)	(33,637)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(24,351)	(18,583)	(25,447)	(33,407)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	4,872	34,269	30,437	59,514
Cash Flow From Financing	(19,257)	55,294	(5,569)	(33,529)
Total Cash Generated	27,304	7,107	(22,454)	(5,107)
Free Cashflow To Equity	47,608	(5,187)	(22,885)	2,422
Free Cashflow To Firm	56,241	(34,829)	(2,458)	38,521

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	62,680	69,787	47,333	42,225
Total Debtors	42,782	41,989	45,158	48,024
Inventories	83,297	81,978	88,058	96,047
Total Other Current Assets	42,825	39,409	42,855	46,128
Total Current Assets	231,584	233,163	223,404	232,424
Fixed Assets	565,321	657,514	744,318	809,927
Total Investments	27,642	27,642	27,642	27,642
Intangible Assets	131,567	131,567	131,567	131,567
Total Other Non-Current Assets	51,907	53,907	54,907	55,907
Total Non-current Assets	776,436	870,629	958,433	1,025,042
Short-term Debt	49,906	64,906	62,906	54,906
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	84,783	80,390	86,428	94,461
Other Current Liabilities	134,370	138,662	152,877	164,215
Total Current Liabilities	269,060	283,958	302,211	313,582
Total Long-term Debt	53,078	81,078	77,078	59,078
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	83,049	93,049	98,049	103,049
Total Non-current Liabilities	136,126	174,126	175,126	162,126
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	405,186	458,084	477,337	475,708
Shareholders Equity	602,275	645,148	703,941	781,198
Minority Interests	559	559	559	559
Total Equity	602,834	645,707	704,500	781,757

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	12.1%	2.9%	12.9%	11.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	22.1%	(4.1%)	29.8%	23.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.3%	17.0%	19.6%	21.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(139.61)	(263.99)	(320.99)	(248.61)
BVPS (Rs)	2,086.23	2,235.13	2,438.82	2,706.48
Gross Interest Cover	10.15	6.62	8.32	14.97
Effective Tax Rate	25.3%	25.9%	25.9%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	34.4%	25.0%	25.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	20.96	21.20	19.30	18.43
Inventory Days	(38.46)	(41.33)	(37.65)	(36.42)
Accounts Payables Days	49.41	49.78	45.93	45.60
ROIC (%)	14.1%	11.2%	13.8%	16.3%
ROCE (%)	14.6%	11.8%	14.7%	17.4%
Return On Average Assets	8.4%	7.1%	8.7%	9.9%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg