* price as on 19 Nov 2024
Financial
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm) 2,211,129 2,529,344 2,834,192 3,149,058
Operating EBITDA (Rsm) 234,936 263,714 319,696 357,657
Net Profit (Rsm) 129,655 149,646 187,341 212,586
Core EPS (Rs) 92.3 106.5 133.3 151.3
Core EPS Growth 25.5% 15.4% 25.2% 13.5%
FD Core P/E (x) 37.99 32.92 26.29 23.17
DPS (Rs) 21.0 22.0 22.0 22.0
Dividend Yield 0.60% 0.63% 0.63% 0.63%
EV/EBITDA (x) 25.86 23.40 19.27 17.27
P/FCFE (x) 47.34 36.84 36.93 44.43
Net Gearing 96.2% 94.6% 82.4% 73.5%
P/BV (x) 5.70 5.01 4.33 3.73
ROE 14.8% 16.2% 17.7% 17.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues 2,211,129 2,529,344 2,834,192 3,149,058
Gross Profit 751,623 892,858 991,967 1,095,872
Operating EBITDA 234,936 263,714 319,696 357,657
Depreciation And Amortisation (36,823) (38,498) (42,244) (44,516)
Operating EBIT 198,113 225,216 277,452 313,141
Financial Income/(Expense) (35,458) (34,229) (35,006) (35,834)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc. (226) (249) (299) (358)
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 41,580 40,749 39,934 39,135
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 204,009 231,486 282,082 316,084
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit 204,009 231,486 282,082 316,084
Taxation (49,474) (57,934) (70,595) (79,111)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax 154,535 173,553 211,487 236,973
Minority Interests (24,880) (23,907) (24,146) (24,387)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit 129,655 149,646 187,341 212,586
Recurring Net Profit 129,655 149,646 187,341 212,586
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 129,655 149,646 187,341 212,586
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
EBITDA 234,936 263,714 319,696 357,657
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc. (30,701) (31,978) (37,316) (41,215)
Change In Working Capital 104,377 (224,477) (182,364) (232,074)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow (107,354) 86,397 87,748 87,746
Net Interest (Paid)/Received (6,122) (6,519) (4,928) (3,301)
Tax Paid (49,474) (57,934) (70,595) (79,111)
Cashflow From Operations 145,662 29,203 112,242 89,703
Capex (8,044) (69,748) (45,465) (47,611)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries (30,409) (10,000) (10,000) (10,000)
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow 41,580 40,749 39,934 39,135
Cash Flow From Investing 3,128 (38,999) (15,531) (18,476)
Debt Raised/(repaid) (44,736) 143,501 36,658 39,633
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares (62)
Shares Repurchased (100,300)
Dividends Paid (29,506) (30,911) (30,911) (30,911)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow (56,995) (54,793) (55,809) (56,878)
Cash Flow From Financing (231,599) 57,796 (50,062) (48,156)
Total Cash Generated (82,810) 48,000 46,649 23,070
Free Cashflow To Equity 104,053 133,704 133,369 110,859
Free Cashflow To Firm 113,331 (44,026) 61,705 35,392
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents 153,584 201,812 248,317 270,892
Total Debtors 487,710 623,674 698,842 776,480
Inventories 66,202 97,016 93,179 103,531
Total Other Current Assets 775,581 1,039,456 1,242,386 1,509,822
Total Current Assets 1,483,077 1,961,959 2,282,723 2,660,725
Fixed Assets 438,175 469,425 472,646 475,741
Total Investments 1,436,384 1,398,485 1,362,980 1,329,751
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets 33,301 29,971 26,974 24,276
Total Non-current Assets 1,907,860 1,897,880 1,862,600 1,829,768
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 1,156,104 1,351,293 1,436,508 1,552,960
Other Current Liabilities 44,450 55,438 62,119 69,020
Total Current Liabilities 1,200,554 1,406,731 1,498,628 1,621,980
Total Long-term Debt 1,140,398 1,283,898 1,320,556 1,360,189
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities 1,140,398 1,283,898 1,320,556 1,360,189
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities 2,340,952 2,690,629 2,819,184 2,982,170
Shareholders Equity 863,592 982,327 1,138,757 1,320,432
Minority Interests 161,904 161,904 161,904 161,904
Total Equity 1,025,497 1,144,231 1,300,661 1,482,336
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue Growth 20.6% 14.4% 12.1% 11.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth 13.2% 12.2% 21.2% 11.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin 10.6% 10.4% 11.3% 11.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs) (702.33) (770.14) (763.13) (775.27)
BVPS (Rs) 614.63 699.14 810.47 939.78
Gross Interest Cover 5.59 6.58 7.93 8.74
Effective Tax Rate 24.3% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 22.8% 20.7% 16.5% 14.5%
Accounts Receivables Days 77.17 80.19 85.16 85.50
Inventory Days 16.82 18.20 18.84 17.48
Accounts Payables Days 271.25 279.62 276.17 265.72
ROIC (%) 22.1% 17.7% 18.0% (8.2%)
ROCE (%) 9.0% 9.8% 11.0% 11.5%
Return On Average Assets 5.3% 5.4% 5.9% 5.2%

Analyst(s)

Arafat SAIYED

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

Anirvan DIVAKERA

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com