InCred Equities - Natco Pharma Ltd

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	20,521	25,118	41,867	47,841
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	6,062	8,038	19,677	24,877
Net Profit (Rsm)	4,409	5,963	15,148	19,384
Core EPS (Rs)	24.2	32.7	83.0	106.2
Core EPS Growth	(4.3%)	35.1%	154.0%	28.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	56.41	41.76	16.44	12.85
DPS (Rs)	6.2	6.0	6.0
Dividend Yield	0.45%	0.44%	0.44%	0.44%
EV/EBITDA (x)	41.00	30.95	12.31	9.17
P/FCFE (x)	51.11	96.55	31.78	16.04
Net Gearing	(0.4%)	(0.7%)	(11.2%)	(26.6%)
P/BV (x)	6.04	5.40	4.14	3.18
ROE	11.2%	13.7%	28.5%	28.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	20,521	25,118	41,867	47,841
Gross Profit	15,407	19,843	33,912	39,708
Operating EBITDA	6,062	8,038	19,677	24,877
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,169)	(1,255)	(1,342)	(1,428)
Operating EBIT	4,893	6,783	18,336	23,449
Financial Income/(Expense)	(133)	(158)	(182)	(179)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	1,036	1,140	1,538	1,923
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	5,796	7,764	19,693	25,193
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	5,796	7,764	19,693	25,193
Taxation	(1,372)	(1,786)	(4,529)	(5,794)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	4,424	5,978	15,163	19,399
Minority Interests	(15)	(15)	(15)	(15)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	4,409	5,963	15,148	19,384
Recurring Net Profit	4,409	5,963	15,148	19,384
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	4,409	5,963	15,148	19,384

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	6,062	8,038	19,677	24,877
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	2,473	(3,649)	(6,614)	(3,243)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(133)	(158)	(182)	(179)
Tax Paid	(1,478)	(1,786)	(4,529)	(5,794)
Cashflow From Operations	6,924	2,445	8,352	15,661
Capex	(2,611)	(2,005)	(2,005)	(2,005)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	1,036	1,140	1,538	1,923
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,575)	(865)	(467)	(82)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(483)	1,000	(50)	(50)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	1
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,138)	(1,095)	(1,095)	(1,095)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(1,554)	(319)	(349)	(382)
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,174)	(414)	(1,494)	(1,527)
Total Cash Generated	2,175	1,166	6,391	14,051
Free Cashflow To Equity	4,866	2,579	7,835	15,529
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,482	1,737	8,067	15,758

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	2,835	4,001	10,392	24,443
Total Debtors	4,129	6,882	9,176	10,486
Inventories	7,982	9,290	14,338	16,384
Total Other Current Assets	6,984	7,053	7,122	7,192
Total Current Assets	21,930	27,225	41,028	58,504
Fixed Assets	22,372	23,117	23,775	24,347
Total Investments	3,037	3,341	3,675	4,042
Intangible Assets	94	99	104	109
Total Other Non-Current Assets	486	521	541	571
Total Non-current Assets	25,989	27,078	28,095	29,069
Short-term Debt	2,667	3,667	3,617	3,567
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	1,462	1,872	2,432	2,517
Other Current Liabilities	1,127	1,183	1,387	1,460
Total Current Liabilities	5,256	6,722	7,436	7,543
Total Long-term Debt	11	11	11	11
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9	9	9	9
Total Non-current Liabilities	20	20	20	20
Total Provisions	1,409	1,459	1,511	1,566
Total Liabilities	6,685	8,201	8,967	9,129
Shareholders Equity	41,216	46,084	60,138	78,426
Minority Interests	18	18	18	18
Total Equity	41,234	46,102	60,156	78,444

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	7.2%	22.4%	66.7%	14.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	4.1%	32.6%	144.8%	26.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	29.5%	32.0%	47.0%	52.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	0.86	1.77	37.06	114.33
BVPS (Rs)	225.84	252.52	329.52	429.73
Gross Interest Cover	36.79	42.95	100.96	130.91
Effective Tax Rate	23.7%	23.0%	23.0%	23.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.3%	14.1%	5.6%	4.3%
Accounts Receivables Days	85.75	80.00	70.00	75.01
Inventory Days	483.98	597.59	542.09	689.39
Accounts Payables Days	143.32	115.34	98.73	111.04
ROIC (%)	12.4%	15.4%	35.8%	42.5%
ROCE (%)	11.4%	14.4%	32.1%	32.0%
Return On Average Assets	12.6%	15.5%	32.2%	32.4%

(91) 22 4161 1552 praful.bohra@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg