* price as on 19 Nov 2024
Financial
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm) 115,560 117,878 131,675 145,160
Operating EBITDA (Rsm) 20,598 20,300 24,133 28,262
Net Profit (Rsm) 7,963 7,687 9,882 12,222
Core EPS (Rs) 103.1 99.5 127.9 158.2
Core EPS Growth 88.0% (3.5%) 28.6% 23.7%
FD Core P/E (x) 38.35 39.73 30.90 24.99
DPS (Rs) 20.0 19.9 24.3 30.1
Dividend Yield 0.51% 0.61% 0.74% 0.92%
EV/EBITDA (x) 16.88 17.34 14.74 12.58
P/FCFE (x) 101.02 70.07 19.87 10.85
Net Gearing 80.3% 79.6% 76.0% 66.6%
P/BV (x) 5.69 5.13 4.55 3.99
ROE 15.8% 13.6% 15.6% 17.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues 115,560 117,878 131,675 145,160
Gross Profit 115,560 117,878 131,675 145,160
Operating EBITDA 20,598 20,300 24,133 28,262
Depreciation And Amortisation (5,726) (6,013) (6,734) (7,542)
Operating EBIT 14,872 14,288 17,399 20,720
Financial Income/(Expense) (4,531) (4,713) (4,665) (4,619)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense) 1,451 1,552 1,575 1,599
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI) 11,791 11,127 14,309 17,700
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit 11,791 11,127 14,309 17,700
Taxation (3,837) (3,449) (4,436) (5,487)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax 7,954 7,678 9,873 12,213
Minority Interests 9 9 9 9
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit 7,963 7,687 9,882 12,222
Recurring Net Profit 7,963 7,687 9,882 12,222
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit 7,963 7,687 9,882 12,222
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
EBITDA 20,598 20,300 24,133 28,262
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital 3,294 123 (29) (894)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense 1,451 1,552 1,575 1,599
Other Operating Cashflow (2,707) 6,293 15,293 24,293
Net Interest (Paid)/Received (4,531) (4,713) (4,665) (4,619)
Tax Paid 1,542 (3,449) (4,436) (5,487)
Cashflow From Operations 19,646 20,106 31,871 43,155
Capex (11,782) (19,500) (18,000) (16,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow (4,576) 1,252 0
Cash Flow From Investing (16,358) (18,248) (18,000) (16,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid) (265) 2,500 1,500 1,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares 0 0 0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid (1,545) (1,860) (2,272) (2,810)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow (2,347) (4,284) (15,284) (24,284)
Cash Flow From Financing (4,157) (3,644) (16,056) (26,094)
Total Cash Generated (869) (1,786) (2,185) 1,061
Free Cashflow To Equity 3,023 4,359 15,371 28,155
Free Cashflow To Firm 7,819 6,571 18,536 31,773
(Rs mn) Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents 9,667 7,881 5,696 6,757
Total Debtors 5,663 6,136 6,133 6,363
Inventories 11,816 12,272 13,709 15,113
Total Other Current Assets 17,019 15,914 17,118 18,871
Total Current Assets 44,165 42,203 42,655 47,104
Fixed Assets 91,381 104,868 116,134 124,592
Total Investments 2,681 3,031 3,031 3,031
Intangible Assets 6,242 4,639 4,639 4,639
Total Other Non-Current Assets 3,553 3,553 3,553 3,553
Total Non-current Assets 103,857 116,092 127,358 135,816
Short-term Debt 10,612 10,612 10,612 10,612
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors 9,311 9,191 9,880 10,728
Other Current Liabilities 14,078 14,145 16,064 17,710
Total Current Liabilities 34,001 33,948 36,556 39,050
Total Long-term Debt 41,774 44,274 45,774 46,774
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities 19,030 21,030 21,030 21,030
Total Non-current Liabilities 60,804 65,304 66,804 67,804
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities 94,805 99,252 103,360 106,853
Shareholders Equity 53,671 59,498 67,108 76,521
Minority Interests (455) (455) (455) (455)
Total Equity 53,216 59,043 66,653 76,066
Mar-24A Mar-25F Mar-26F Mar-27F
Revenue Growth 18.9% 2.0% 11.7% 10.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth 56.7% (1.4%) 18.9% 17.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin 17.8% 17.2% 18.3% 19.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs) (552.86) (608.32) (656.02) (655.23)
BVPS (Rs) 694.61 770.02 868.51 990.32
Gross Interest Cover 3.28 3.03 3.73 4.49
Effective Tax Rate 32.5% 31.0% 31.0% 31.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio 19.4% 24.2% 23.0% 23.0%
Accounts Receivables Days 16.53 18.27 17.00 15.71
Inventory Days 34.04 37.29 36.01 36.23
Accounts Payables Days 33.69 34.60 32.36 32.17
ROIC (%) 13.2% 11.5% 12.9% 14.3%
ROCE (%) 14.7% 13.0% 14.7% 16.2%
Return On Average Assets 8.9% 8.1% 8.9% 9.5%

Analyst(s)

Nishant BAGRECHA

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

Saurabh SINGH

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

Rohan KALLE

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com