InCred Equities - Oil India

	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Revenue (Rsm)	217,899	349,381	342,377	355,644
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	105,004	120,968	110,302	117,146
Net Profit (Rsm)	56,319	67,004	61,721	59,173
Core EPS (Rs)	51.9	61.8	56.9	54.6
Core EPS Growth	59.6%	19.0%	(7.9%)	(4.1%)
FD Core P/E (x)	9.35	7.86	8.53	8.90
DPS (Rs)	12.0	14.0	12.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	2.47%	2.88%	2.47%	2.47%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.21	4.05	4.90	5.02
P/FCFE (x)	38.25	55.92	19.54	16.48
Net Gearing	42.6%	47.6%	53.5%	56.3%
P/BV (x)	1.90	1.63	1.44	1.27
ROE	21.9%	22.3%	17.9%	15.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Total Net Revenues	217,899	349,381	342,377	355,644
Gross Profit	116,421	132,953	122,266	129,100
Operating EBITDA	105,004	120,968	110,302	117,146
Depreciation And Amortisation	(18,245)	(21,074)	(20,642)	(21,168)
Operating EBIT	86,759	99,894	89,660	95,978
Financial Income/(Expense)	(9,401)	(8,694)	(8,006)	(8,006)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	11,426	8,814	8,970	9,040
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	88,784	100,014	90,625	97,012
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	88,784	100,014	90,625	97,012
Taxation	(22,710)	(27,078)	(24,661)	(26,270)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	66,074	72,936	65,964	70,742
Minority Interests	(10,873)	(13,478)	(10,974)	(11,568)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	1,119	7,546	6,731
Net Profit	56,319	67,004	61,721	59,173
Recurring Net Profit	56,319	67,004	61,721	59,173
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	56,319	67,004	61,721	59,173

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
EBITDA	105,004	120,968	110,302	117,146
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	11,426	8,814	8,970	9,040
Change In Working Capital	9,333	(6,328)	(6,580)	(8,106)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(342)	215	196	208
Other Operating Cashflow	934	343	1,065	1,065
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(9,401)	(8,694)	(8,006)	(8,006)
Tax Paid	(24,201)	(26,863)	(24,465)	(26,062)
Cashflow From Operations	92,752	88,455	81,482	85,286
Capex	(59,540)	(115,540)	(115,540)	(115,540)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(5,301)	(5,700)	(6,200)	(5,000)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(64,841)	(121,240)	(121,740)	(120,540)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(14,147)	42,200	67,200	67,200
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(11,657)	(15,127)	(13,447)	(13,013)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(25,804)	27,073	53,753	54,187
Total Cash Generated	2,107	(5,713)	13,495	18,933
Free Cashflow To Equity	13,764	9,415	26,942	31,946
Free Cashflow To Firm	37,313	(24,092)	(32,252)	(27,248)

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Total Cash And Equivalents	50,570	50,338	68,679	92,435
Total Debtors	22,317	22,807	22,372	23,390
Inventories	38,275	38,211	38,859	39,894
Total Other Current Assets	27,278	33,858	40,438	47,018
Total Current Assets	138,440	145,214	170,348	202,738
Fixed Assets	211,736	299,217	387,152	474,569
Total Investments	240,205	245,905	252,105	257,105
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	451,941	545,122	639,257	731,674
Short-term Debt	25,001	1	1	1
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	68,617	69,295	69,507	70,035
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	93,617	69,295	69,508	70,035
Total Long-term Debt	154,913	222,113	289,313	356,513
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	154,913	222,113	289,313	356,513
Total Provisions	38,049	38,264	38,460	38,668
Total Liabilities	286,579	329,672	397,280	465,216
Shareholders Equity	277,646	323,578	366,722	414,483
Minority Interests	26,156	37,087	45,603	54,713
Total Equity	303,802	360,664	412,325	469,196

	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Revenue Growth	23.6%	60.3%	(2.0%)	3.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	82.5%	15.2%	(8.8%)	6.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	48.2%	34.6%	32.2%	32.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(119.28)	(158.41)	(203.46)	(243.52)
BVPS (Rs)	256.04	298.39	338.18	382.22
Gross Interest Cover	9.23	11.49	11.20	11.99
Effective Tax Rate	25.6%	27.1%	27.2%	27.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	23.1%	22.7%	21.1%	22.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	34.23	23.57	24.08	23.48
Inventory Days	126.77	64.50	63.90	63.44
Accounts Payables Days	233.96	116.29	115.08	112.41
ROIC (%)	28.1%	23.0%	16.0%	13.9%
ROCE (%)	19.8%	19.2%	14.6%	13.2%
Return On Average Assets	13.1%	13.6%	10.5%	8.8%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg