InCred Equities - Lupin Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	166,417	196,825	225,553	250,738
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	17,206	34,965	53,231	61,182
Net Profit (Rsm)	4,301	16,302	33,465	40,425
Core EPS (Rs)	9.5	35.8	73.6	88.9
Core EPS Growth	(59.4%)	279.1%	105.3%	20.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	215.54	56.86	27.70	22.93
DPS (Rs)	4.0	7.5	8.5	8.5
Dividend Yield	0.20%	0.37%	0.42%	0.42%
EV/EBITDA (x)	55.44	26.69	17.39	14.76
P/FCFE (x)	54.98	28.33	29.88	14.03
Net Gearing	21.5%	5.4%	0.1%	(11.0%)
P/BV (x)	7.44	6.49	5.37	4.43
ROE	3.5%	12.2%	21.2%	21.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	166,417	196,825	225,553	250,738
Gross Profit	98,619	130,390	156,759	174,263
Operating EBITDA	17,206	34,965	53,231	61,182
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,807)	(11,968)	(10,200)	(10,500)
Operating EBIT	8,399	22,996	43,031	50,682
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,743)	(3,116)	(2,750)	(2,000)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	1,509	1,500	1,800	2,100
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,165	21,380	42,081	50,782
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	7,165	21,380	42,081	50,782
Taxation	(2,688)	(4,867)	(8,416)	(10,156)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	4,477	16,513	33,665	40,625
Minority Interests	(176)	(211)	(200)	(200)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,465	40,425
Recurring Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,465	40,425
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,465	40,425

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	17,206	34,965	53,231	61,182
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	3,263	855	(25,604)	(11,780)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(1,134)	(4,372)	661	1,711
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,743)	(1,125)	(1,611)	(1,611)
Tax Paid	(265)	(562)	(7,666)	(10,456)
Cashflow From Operations	16,327	29,760	19,011	39,046
Capex	(14,611)	(9,166)	(7,000)	(12,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(2,910)	(1,465)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,194)	19,129	12,011	27,046
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,728	(16,171)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	19	146
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,825)	(1,828)	(3,418)	(3,879)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3,249)	(4,828)	(950)	100
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,327)	(22,682)	(4,368)	(3,779)
Total Cash Generated	(4,521)	(3,553)	7,644	23,267
Free Cashflow To Equity	16,861	32,717	31,023	66,092
Free Cashflow To Firm	17,876	52,005	33,773	68,092

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	17,350	20,521	28,164	51,430
Total Debtors	44,807	46,921	54,133	65,192
Inventories	44,918	49,539	58,644	60,177
Total Other Current Assets	17,438	17,497	20,300	27,581
Total Current Assets	124,513	134,477	161,240	204,380
Fixed Assets	55,398	54,942	51,742	53,242
Total Investments	771	2,277	2,277	2,277
Intangible Assets	40,534	41,566	41,566	41,566
Total Other Non-Current Assets	8,343	6,710	6,710	6,710
Total Non-current Assets	105,046	105,495	102,295	103,795
Short-term Debt	42,165	26,699	26,699	26,699
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	25,315	29,581	26,492	31,876
Other Current Liabilities	25,173	28,735	25,340	28,051
Total Current Liabilities	92,654	85,015	78,531	86,626
Total Long-term Debt	2,139	1,553	1,553	1,553
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9,338	9,670	9,670	9,670
Total Non-current Liabilities	11,477	11,222	11,222	11,222
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	104,131	96,237	89,754	97,848
Shareholders Equity	124,645	142,903	172,750	209,096
Minority Interests	783	832	1,032	1,232
Total Equity	125,428	143,735	173,782	210,328

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	1.4%	18.3%	14.6%	11.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(18.0%)	103.2%	52.2%	14.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	10.3%	17.8%	23.6%	24.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(59.27)	(17.00)	(0.19)	50.96
BVPS (Rs)	274.07	314.21	379.84	459.75
Gross Interest Cover	3.06	7.38	15.65	25.34
Effective Tax Rate	37.5%	22.8%	20.0%	20.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	95.88	85.05	81.76	86.85
Inventory Days	245.56	259.48	286.99	283.55
Accounts Payables Days	129.60	150.80	148.75	139.29
ROIC (%)	3.9%	10.8%	17.8%	19.5%
ROCE (%)	5.0%	13.5%	23.0%	23.0%
Return On Average Assets	2.9%	8.0%	14.2%	14.7%

(91) 22 4161 1552 praful.bohra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1566 yogesh.soni@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg