InCred Equities - Lupin Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	166,417	196,825	225,395	249,454
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	17,206	34,965	53,121	60,289
Net Profit (Rsm)	4,301	16,302	33,297	39,711
Core EPS (Rs)	9.5	35.8	73.2	87.3
Core EPS Growth	(59.4%)	279.1%	104.2%	19.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	212.52	56.07	27.45	23.02
DPS (Rs)	4.0	7.5	8.5	8.5
Dividend Yield	0.20%	0.37%	0.42%	0.42%
EV/EBITDA (x)	54.69	26.32	17.18	14.76
P/FCFE (x)	54.21	27.94	29.65	13.91
Net Gearing	21.5%	5.4%	0.0%	(11.0%)
P/BV (x)	7.33	6.40	5.30	4.39
ROE	3.5%	12.2%	21.1%	20.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	166,417	196,825	225,395	249,454
Gross Profit	98,619	130,390	156,649	173,370
Operating EBITDA	17,206	34,965	53,121	60,289
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,807)	(11,968)	(10,400)	(10,500)
Operating EBIT	8,399	22,996	42,721	49,789
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,743)	(3,116)	(2,750)	(2,000)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	1,509	1,500	1,900	2,100
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	7,165	21,380	41,871	49,889
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	7,165	21,380	41,871	49,889
Taxation	(2,688)	(4,867)	(8,374)	(9,978)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	4,477	16,513	33,497	39,911
Minority Interests	(176)	(211)	(200)	(200)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,297	39,711
Recurring Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,297	39,711
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	4,301	16,302	33,297	39,711

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	17,206	34,965	53,121	60,289
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	3,263	855	(25,532)	(11,252)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(1,134)	(4,372)	661	1,711
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,743)	(1,125)	(1,611)	(1,611)
Tax Paid	(265)	(562)	(7,724)	(10,278)
Cashflow From Operations	16,327	29,760	18,915	38,860
Capex	(14,611)	(9,166)	(7,000)	(12,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(2,910)	(1,465)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,194)	19,129	11,915	26,860
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,728	(16,171)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	19	146
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,825)	(1,828)	(3,418)	(3,879)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3,249)	(4,828)	(850)	100
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,327)	(22,682)	(4,268)	(3,779)
Total Cash Generated	(4,521)	(3,553)	7,647	23,080
Free Cashflow To Equity	16,861	32,717	30,830	65,719
Free Cashflow To Firm	17,876	52,005	33,580	67,719

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	17,350	20,521	28,267	51,348
Total Debtors	44,807	46,921	54,095	64,858
Inventories	44,918	49,539	58,603	59,869
Total Other Current Assets	17,438	17,497	20,286	27,440
Total Current Assets	124,513	134,477	161,250	203,514
Fixed Assets	55,398	54,942	51,542	53,042
Total Investments	771	2,277	2,277	2,277
Intangible Assets	40,534	41,566	41,566	41,566
Total Other Non-Current Assets	8,343	6,710	6,710	6,710
Total Non-current Assets	105,046	105,495	102,095	103,595
Short-term Debt	42,165	26,699	26,699	26,699
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	25,315	29,581	26,481	31,778
Other Current Liabilities	25,173	28,735	25,330	27,964
Total Current Liabilities	92,654	85,015	78,510	86,441
Total Long-term Debt	2,139	1,553	1,553	1,553
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9,338	9,670	9,670	9,670
Total Non-current Liabilities	11,477	11,222	11,222	11,222
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	104,131	96,237	89,732	97,664
Shareholders Equity	124,645	142,903	172,582	208,214
Minority Interests	783	832	1,032	1,232
Total Equity	125,428	143,735	173,614	209,446

	Mar-23A	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	1.4%	18.3%	14.5%	10.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(18.0%)	103.2%	51.9%	13.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	10.3%	17.8%	23.6%	24.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(59.27)	(17.00)	0.03	50.78
BVPS (Rs)	274.07	314.21	379.47	457.81
Gross Interest Cover	3.06	7.38	15.53	24.89
Effective Tax Rate	37.5%	22.8%	20.0%	20.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	95.88	85.05	81.79	87.03
Inventory Days	245.56	259.48	287.09	284.18
Accounts Payables Days	129.60	150.80	148.83	139.74
ROIC (%)	3.9%	10.8%	17.7%	19.2%
ROCE (%)	5.0%	13.5%	22.9%	22.7%
Return On Average Assets	2.9%	8.0%	14.1%	14.5%

(91) 22 4161 1566 yogesh.soni@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg