InCred Equities - Asian Paints Limited

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	354,947	339,056	354,756	385,154
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	75,850	60,062	64,316	70,156
Net Profit (Rsm)	54,602	36,672	42,806	47,132
Core EPS (Rs)	56.9	41.0	44.6	49.1
Core EPS Growth	31.8%	(28.1%)	9.0%	10.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	39.44	58.73	50.31	45.69
DPS (Rs)	32.0	23.8	23.9	25.9
Dividend Yield	1.42%	1.06%	1.06%	1.15%
EV/EBITDA (x)	28.25	35.68	33.32	30.45
P/FCFE (x)	75.17	78.74	89.75	66.63
Net Gearing	(9.3%)	(8.7%)	(8.1%)	(10.3%)
P/BV (x)	11.50	11.10	10.15	9.26
ROE	31.5%	20.6%	21.1%	21.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	354,947	339,056	354,756	385,154
Gross Profit	154,045	143,898	150,826	164,228
Operating EBITDA	75,850	60,062	64,316	70,156
Depreciation And Amortisation	(8,530)	(10,263)	(11,980)	(12,414)
Operating EBIT	67,320	49,799	52,336	57,741
Financial Income/(Expense)	4,828	3,456	3,458	3,881
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	72,148	53,255	55,794	61,622
Exceptional Items		(3,631)
Pre-tax Profit	72,148	49,624	55,794	61,622
Taxation	(17,901)	(13,934)	(13,788)	(15,491)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	54,247	35,690	42,006	46,132
Minority Interests	355	982	800	1,000
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	54,602	36,672	42,806	47,132
Recurring Net Profit	54,602	39,284	42,806	47,132
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	54,602	39,284	42,806	47,132

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	75,850	60,062	64,316	70,156
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	891	(468)	(4,291)	(523)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,052)	(2,270)	(2,653)	(2,552)
Tax Paid	(17,901)	(13,934)	(13,788)	(15,491)
Cashflow From Operations	56,788	43,390	43,584	51,590
Capex	(37,172)	(18,556)	(25,700)	(25,700)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	3,618	4,358	6,111	6,433
Cash Flow From Investing	(33,555)	(14,198)	(19,589)	(19,267)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	5,418	(1,841)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(30,658)	(22,840)	(22,918)	(24,800)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	6,315	(5,197)	(682)	(682)
Cash Flow From Financing	(18,925)	(29,878)	(23,600)	(25,482)
Total Cash Generated	4,309	(685)	395	6,842
Free Cashflow To Equity	28,651	27,352	23,995	32,324
Free Cashflow To Firm	25,285	31,463	26,648	34,876

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	42,874	40,269	40,664	47,505
Total Debtors	48,908	43,224	52,197	58,691
Inventories	59,234	67,193	63,824	60,978
Total Other Current Assets	35,696	33,323	33,323	33,323
Total Current Assets	186,713	184,009	190,008	200,498
Fixed Assets	94,258	102,550	116,270	129,556
Total Investments	13,845	14,798	14,798	14,798
Intangible Assets	4,192	2,196	2,196	2,196
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	112,295	119,544	133,264	146,549
Short-term Debt	13,247	9,074	9,074	9,074
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	73,888	72,922	74,414	77,361
Other Current Liabilities	625	672
Total Current Liabilities	87,760	82,667	83,488	86,434
Total Long-term Debt	11,497	13,829	13,829	13,829
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	11,497	13,829	13,829	13,829
Total Provisions	6,139	7,837	7,659	7,838
Total Liabilities	105,396	104,334	104,976	108,102
Shareholders Equity	187,283	193,998	212,104	232,454
Minority Interests	6,954	6,592	6,892	7,192
Total Equity	194,237	200,591	218,996	239,646

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	2.9%	(4.5%)	4.6%	8.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	21.2%	(20.8%)	7.1%	9.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	21.4%	17.7%	18.1%	18.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	18.90	18.11	18.52	25.65
BVPS (Rs)	195.25	202.25	221.13	242.34
Gross Interest Cover	32.81	21.94	19.72	22.63
Effective Tax Rate	24.8%	28.1%	24.7%	25.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	56.1%	56.7%	53.5%	52.6%
Accounts Receivables Days	49.00	49.59	49.09	52.54
Inventory Days	110.23	118.23	117.25	103.10
Accounts Payables Days	128.71	137.29	131.85	125.38
ROIC (%)	40.1%	28.5%	27.1%	27.8%
ROCE (%)	33.7%	22.7%	22.7%	23.1%
Return On Average Assets	17.8%	11.9%	12.3%	12.6%

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg