InCred Equities - Ambuja Cements Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	179,193	192,267	226,414	265,063
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	33,708	32,718	46,025	60,295
Net Profit (Rsm)	23,663	23,448	33,119	43,450
Core EPS (Rs)	11.9	10.5	13.4	17.6
Core EPS Growth	(12.3%)	(11.1%)	27.6%	31.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	46.11	52.13	40.87	31.15
DPS (Rs)	2.0	1.9	3.2	4.2
Dividend Yield	0.36%	0.35%	0.59%	0.77%
EV/EBITDA (x)	29.76	31.45	25.64	19.80
P/FCFE (x)	(22.50)	71.57	30.42	25.88
Net Gearing	(23.8%)	(35.9%)	(30.7%)	(26.8%)
P/BV (x)	2.95	2.51	2.40	2.27
ROE	7.2%	5.2%	6.0%	7.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	179,193	192,267	226,414	265,063
Gross Profit	179,193	192,267	226,414	265,063
Operating EBITDA	33,708	32,718	46,025	60,295
Depreciation And Amortisation	(9,380)	(9,848)	(11,030)	(12,354)
Operating EBIT	24,329	22,870	34,995	47,941
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,623)	(1,541)	(1,526)	(1,511)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	8,526	10,061	10,866	11,735
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	31,233	31,389	44,335	58,166
Exceptional Items	158
Pre-tax Profit	31,391	31,389	44,335	58,166
Taxation	(7,728)	(7,941)	(11,216)	(14,716)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	23,663	23,448	33,119	43,450
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	23,663	23,448	33,119	43,450
Recurring Net Profit	23,544	23,448	33,119	43,450
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	23,544	23,448	33,119	43,450

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	33,708	32,718	46,025	60,295
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(25,773)	820	3,384	529
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	8,526	10,061	10,866	11,735
Other Operating Cashflow	20,462	58,462	57,462	56,462
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(1,623)	(1,541)	(1,526)	(1,511)
Tax Paid	(7,728)	(7,941)	(11,216)	(14,716)
Cashflow From Operations	27,574	92,578	104,995	112,796
Capex	(18,837)	(75,500)	(60,500)	(60,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(57,234)	0	0	0
Cash Flow From Investing	(76,071)	(75,500)	(60,500)	(60,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	66,610	150,530	(1)	(1)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,971)	(4,689)	(7,948)	(10,428)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5,668)	(57,462)	(56,462)	(55,462)
Cash Flow From Financing	56,970	88,378	(64,411)	(65,891)
Total Cash Generated	8,473	105,456	(19,916)	(13,595)
Free Cashflow To Equity	(48,497)	17,078	44,495	52,296
Free Cashflow To Firm	(46,875)	18,620	46,021	53,806

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	88,334	193,790	173,874	160,278
Total Debtors	7,168	6,848	8,064	9,441
Inventories	15,903	14,749	16,128	18,881
Total Other Current Assets	38,656	37,492	41,887	49,037
Total Current Assets	150,061	252,879	239,952	237,637
Fixed Assets	82,440	153,184	202,154	249,800
Total Investments	140,581	140,581	140,581	140,581
Intangible Assets	15,485	15,485	15,485	15,485
Total Other Non-Current Assets	52,720	47,629	48,129	48,629
Total Non-current Assets	291,227	356,878	406,348	454,494
Short-term Debt	179	179	179	179
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	14,522	16,503	18,681	21,215
Other Current Liabilities	49,944	46,144	54,339	63,615
Total Current Liabilities	64,645	62,826	73,200	85,009
Total Long-term Debt	189	189	189	189
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	6,389	7,389	8,389	9,389
Total Non-current Liabilities	6,578	7,578	8,578	9,578
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	71,223	70,404	81,778	94,587
Shareholders Equity	370,065	539,353	564,522	597,544
Minority Interests
Total Equity	370,065	539,353	564,522	597,544

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(10.3%)	7.3%	17.8%	17.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	4.7%	(2.9%)	40.7%	31.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.8%	17.0%	20.3%	22.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	44.30	78.53	70.44	64.93
BVPS (Rs)	186.37	218.98	229.20	242.61
Gross Interest Cover	14.99	14.84	22.93	31.73
Effective Tax Rate	24.6%	25.3%	25.3%	25.3%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.9%	20.0%	24.0%	24.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.05	13.30	12.02	12.05
Inventory Days	32.89	29.10	24.89	24.10
Accounts Payables Days	37.93	35.49	35.60	35.56
ROIC (%)	16.4%	10.8%	13.5%	15.6%
ROCE (%)	7.4%	5.0%	6.3%	8.2%
Return On Average Assets	6.3%	4.8%	5.5%	6.7%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg