InCred Equities - Ambuja Cements Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	331,596	342,184	414,727	478,462
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	63,995	51,443	74,162	97,616
Net Profit (Rsm)	35,734	41,674	35,569	49,288
Core EPS (Rs)	17.0	15.5	14.4	20.0
Core EPS Growth	20.1%	(8.9%)	(7.0%)	38.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	30.85	29.63	38.44	27.74
DPS (Rs)	2.0	2.1	3.4	4.4
Dividend Yield	0.40%	0.36%	0.62%	0.87%
EV/EBITDA (x)	15.61	22.81	18.25	14.06
P/FCFE (x)	(33.12)	(19.10)	(21.51)	(31.90)
Net Gearing	(20.3%)	(9.6%)	(2.1%)	0.7%
P/BV (x)	2.17	2.14	2.04	1.91
ROE	7.6%	6.0%	5.4%	7.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	331,596	342,184	414,727	478,462
Gross Profit	331,596	342,184	414,727	478,462
Operating EBITDA	63,995	51,443	74,162	97,616
Depreciation And Amortisation	(16,279)	(24,783)	(30,979)	(34,697)
Operating EBIT	47,716	26,660	43,183	62,919
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,764)	(2,159)	(2,203)	(2,247)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	11,664	26,543	6,636	5,309
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	56,616	51,043	47,616	65,981
Exceptional Items	2,345	8,181
Pre-tax Profit	58,961	59,224	47,616	65,981
Taxation	(11,615)	(7,640)	(12,046)	(16,693)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	47,346	51,584	35,569	49,288
Minority Interests	(11,612)	(9,910)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	35,734	41,674	35,569	49,288
Recurring Net Profit	33,851	34,549	35,569	49,288
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	33,851	34,549	35,569	49,288

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	63,995	51,443	74,162	97,616
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(32,801)	(18,036)	(7,853)	4,433
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	11,664	26,543	6,636	5,309
Other Operating Cashflow	27,979	(27,777)	(28,777)	(29,777)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,764)	(2,159)	(2,203)	(2,247)
Tax Paid	(11,615)	(7,640)	(12,046)	(16,693)
Cashflow From Operations	56,458	22,374	29,919	58,642
Capex	(39,611)	(85,915)	(102,500)	(106,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(49,893)	10,604	(1,000)	0
Cash Flow From Investing	(89,504)	(75,311)	(103,500)	(106,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(241)	(11,711)	10,000	5,000
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	66,610	83,391	4,999	9,999
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,395)	(5,135)	(8,464)	(10,820)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5,086)	(10,624)	29,704	29,767
Cash Flow From Financing	56,888	55,920	36,239	33,947
Total Cash Generated	23,842	2,983	(37,342)	(13,912)
Free Cashflow To Equity	(33,287)	(64,648)	(63,581)	(42,858)
Free Cashflow To Firm	(30,282)	(50,778)	(71,378)	(45,611)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	103,691	61,799	24,457	10,545
Total Debtors	11,896	15,903	17,044	19,663
Inventories	36,086	42,480	47,722	53,745
Total Other Current Assets	88,209	76,990	84,604	97,606
Total Current Assets	239,882	197,172	173,827	181,560
Fixed Assets	314,360	411,130	496,798	568,102
Total Investments	20,706	37,556	37,556	37,556
Intangible Assets	26,585	98,204	99,204	99,204
Total Other Non-Current Assets	49,505	65,393	51,245	51,745
Total Non-current Assets	411,155	612,283	684,803	756,607
Short-term Debt	179	124	124	124
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	29,641	27,595	28,349	31,796
Other Current Liabilities	91,469	110,734	116,124	138,754
Total Current Liabilities	121,289	138,453	144,597	170,675
Total Long-term Debt	189	144	10,144	15,144
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	21,134	32,743	33,743	34,743
Total Non-current Liabilities	21,323	32,887	43,887	49,887
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	142,612	171,340	188,484	220,562
Shareholders Equity	508,425	638,114	670,146	717,604
Minority Interests
Total Equity	508,425	638,114	670,146	717,604

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(14.8%)	3.2%	21.2%	15.4%
Operating EBITDA Growth	24.9%	(19.6%)	44.2%	31.6%
Operating EBITDA Margin	19.3%	15.0%	17.9%	20.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	52.03	24.98	5.76	(1.92)
BVPS (Rs)	256.05	259.08	272.09	291.35
Gross Interest Cover	17.26	12.35	19.61	28.01
Effective Tax Rate	19.7%	12.9%	25.3%	25.3%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	13.2%	14.7%	24.0%	24.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.90	14.83	14.50	14.00
Inventory Days	37.87	41.90	39.69	38.70
Accounts Payables Days	39.13	35.93	29.98	28.82
ROIC (%)	11.8%	4.7%	6.6%	8.7%
ROCE (%)	10.6%	4.6%	6.5%	8.9%
Return On Average Assets	8.2%	6.2%	4.5%	5.7%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg