InCred Equities - Ambuja Cements Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	179,193	192,319	226,475	265,525
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	33,708	28,789	42,121	55,874
Net Profit (Rsm)	23,663	25,678	35,267	45,083
Core EPS (Rs)	11.9	11.5	14.3	18.3
Core EPS Growth	(12.3%)	(2.6%)	24.0%	27.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	44.81	46.26	37.30	29.18
DPS (Rs)	2.0	2.1	3.4	4.4
Dividend Yield	0.37%	0.39%	0.64%	0.82%
EV/EBITDA (x)	28.85	34.46	27.01	20.58
P/FCFE (x)	(21.87)	59.77	28.14	24.30
Net Gearing	(23.8%)	(36.2%)	(31.3%)	(27.5%)
P/BV (x)	2.87	2.43	2.32	2.18
ROE	7.2%	5.6%	6.4%	7.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	179,193	192,319	226,475	265,525
Gross Profit	179,193	192,319	226,475	265,525
Operating EBITDA	33,708	28,789	42,121	55,874
Depreciation And Amortisation	(9,380)	(9,942)	(11,135)	(12,472)
Operating EBIT	24,329	18,847	30,986	43,403
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,623)	(1,525)	(1,510)	(1,495)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	8,526	17,053	17,735	18,444
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	31,233	34,375	47,211	60,352
Exceptional Items	158
Pre-tax Profit	31,391	34,375	47,211	60,352
Taxation	(7,728)	(8,696)	(11,944)	(15,269)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	23,663	25,678	35,267	45,083
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	23,663	25,678	35,267	45,083
Recurring Net Profit	23,544	25,678	35,267	45,083
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	23,544	25,678	35,267	45,083

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	33,708	28,789	42,121	55,874
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(25,773)	1,293	3,381	620
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	8,526	17,053	17,735	18,444
Other Operating Cashflow	20,462	58,462	57,462	56,462
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(1,623)	(1,525)	(1,510)	(1,495)
Tax Paid	(7,728)	(8,696)	(11,944)	(15,269)
Cashflow From Operations	27,574	95,375	107,245	114,637
Capex	(18,837)	(75,500)	(60,500)	(60,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(57,234)		0	0
Cash Flow From Investing	(76,071)	(75,500)	(60,500)	(60,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	66,610	150,529	(1)	(1)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,971)	(5,135)	(8,464)	(10,820)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(5,668)	(57,462)	(56,462)	(55,462)
Cash Flow From Financing	56,970	87,932	(64,927)	(66,283)
Total Cash Generated	8,473	107,807	(18,182)	(12,146)
Free Cashflow To Equity	(48,497)	19,875	46,745	54,137
Free Cashflow To Firm	(46,875)	21,400	48,255	55,631

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	88,334	196,141	177,959	165,812
Total Debtors	7,168	6,850	8,066	9,457
Inventories	15,903	14,753	16,132	18,914
Total Other Current Assets	38,656	37,502	41,898	49,122
Total Current Assets	150,061	255,246	244,055	243,306
Fixed Assets	82,440	153,090	201,955	249,483
Total Investments	140,581	140,581	140,581	140,581
Intangible Assets	15,485	15,485	15,485	15,485
Total Other Non-Current Assets	52,720	47,629	48,129	48,629
Total Non-current Assets	291,227	356,784	406,149	454,177
Short-term Debt	179	179	179	179
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	14,522	16,980	19,154	21,799
Other Current Liabilities	49,944	46,157	54,354	63,726
Total Current Liabilities	64,645	63,315	73,687	85,704
Total Long-term Debt	189	189	189	189
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	6,389	7,389	8,389	9,389
Total Non-current Liabilities	6,578	7,578	8,578	9,578
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	71,223	70,893	82,265	95,282
Shareholders Equity	370,065	541,137	567,939	602,201
Minority Interests
Total Equity	370,065	541,137	567,939	602,201

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(10.3%)	7.3%	17.8%	17.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	4.7%	(14.6%)	46.3%	32.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.8%	15.0%	18.6%	21.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	44.30	79.49	72.10	67.17
BVPS (Rs)	186.37	219.71	230.59	244.50
Gross Interest Cover	14.99	12.36	20.52	29.04
Effective Tax Rate	24.6%	25.3%	25.3%	25.3%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.9%	20.0%	24.0%	24.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.05	13.30	12.02	12.04
Inventory Days	32.89	29.09	24.89	24.09
Accounts Payables Days	37.93	35.16	35.77	35.65
ROIC (%)	16.4%	8.9%	12.0%	14.2%
ROCE (%)	7.4%	4.1%	5.6%	7.4%
Return On Average Assets	6.3%	5.2%	5.8%	6.9%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg