InCred Equities - Ashok Leyland

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	383,670	396,324	470,059	546,837
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	46,065	48,294	58,753	69,061
Net Profit (Rsm)	26,178	31,694	37,995	45,396
Core EPS (Rs)	9.2	10.4	12.9	15.5
Core EPS Growth	109.3%	12.6%	24.5%	19.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	23.96	21.29	17.10	14.31
DPS (Rs)	4.9	5.5	6.5	7.8
Dividend Yield	2.24%	2.49%	2.94%	3.52%
EV/EBITDA (x)	12.92	12.08	9.67	8.13
P/FCFE (x)	14.80	36.33	30.23	35.26
Net Gearing	1.0%	(3.7%)	(8.4%)	(7.4%)
P/BV (x)	7.37	6.27	5.30	4.48
ROE	31.5%	31.8%	33.6%	33.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	383,670	396,324	470,059	546,837
Gross Profit	104,550	111,825	129,879	150,842
Operating EBITDA	46,065	48,294	58,753	69,061
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,178)	(7,636)	(8,362)	(8,970)
Operating EBIT	38,887	40,658	50,391	60,091
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,494)	(2,330)	(2,240)	(2,319)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,466	2,638	2,849	3,163
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	38,859	40,966	51,000	60,934
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	38,859	40,966	51,000	60,934
Taxation	(11,743)	(10,446)	(13,005)	(15,538)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(937)	1,174
Profit After Tax	26,178	31,694	37,995	45,396
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	26,178	31,694	37,995	45,396
Recurring Net Profit	27,116	30,520	37,995	45,396
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	27,116	30,520	37,995	45,396

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	46,065	48,294	58,753	69,061
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(7,933)	11,069	2,500	(7,517)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	15,636	(4,628)	3,000	1,550
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	528		0	0
Other Operating Cashflow	(937)	1,174
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(29)	308	609	843
Tax Paid	(12,854)	(13,929)	(16,320)	(19,499)
Cashflow From Operations	40,476	42,289	48,542	44,438
Capex	(4,394)	(17,889)	(17,362)	(18,970)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	4,351	(3,518)	(5,685)	(2,039)
Cash Flow From Investing	(43)	(21,406)	(23,047)	(21,009)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	3,470	(3,000)	(4,000)	(5,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(14,535)	(16,150)	(19,086)	(22,903)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(11,064)	(19,150)	(23,086)	(27,903)
Total Cash Generated	29,369	1,733	2,409	(4,474)
Free Cashflow To Equity	43,903	17,882	21,495	18,429
Free Cashflow To Firm	42,927	23,213	27,735	25,748

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	34,382	36,114	38,524	34,050
Total Debtors	35,699	36,918	51,513	65,920
Inventories	31,907	34,746	42,499	52,436
Total Other Current Assets	16,339	17,339	18,339	19,339
Total Current Assets	118,326	125,117	150,874	171,745
Fixed Assets	74,885	72,447	81,446	91,446
Total Investments	55,598	62,598	71,598	77,598
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	130,483	135,044	153,044	169,044
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	63,052	78,179	103,027	119,855
Other Current Liabilities	30,380	28,000	30,000	31,500
Total Current Liabilities	93,432	106,179	133,027	151,355
Total Long-term Debt	35,271	32,271	28,271	23,271
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	35,271	32,271	28,271	23,271
Total Provisions	19,311	18,063	20,063	21,113
Total Liabilities	148,014	156,513	181,361	195,739
Shareholders Equity	88,104	103,648	122,557	145,050
Minority Interests
Total Equity	88,104	103,648	122,557	145,050

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	6.1%	3.3%	18.6%	16.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	57.2%	4.8%	21.7%	17.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	12.0%	12.2%	12.5%	12.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(0.30)	1.31	3.49	3.67
BVPS (Rs)	30.01	35.31	41.75	49.41
Gross Interest Cover	15.59	17.45	22.50	25.91
Effective Tax Rate	30.2%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	53.6%	52.9%	50.2%	50.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	36.31	33.44	34.33	39.19
Inventory Days	39.00	42.76	41.44	43.75
Accounts Payables Days	88.14	90.60	97.21	102.72
ROIC (%)	38.6%	41.7%	61.1%	66.3%
ROCE (%)	31.1%	30.1%	33.8%	36.4%
Return On Average Assets	11.9%	12.6%	14.0%	14.6%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg