InCred Equities - Ashok Leyland

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	387,527	442,082	505,758	558,584
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	49,306	55,096	65,606	73,807
Net Profit (Rsm)	33,033	36,973	44,742	50,804
Core EPS (Rs)	10.9	12.6	15.2	17.3
Core EPS Growth	18.0%	15.6%	21.0%	13.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	22.21	19.22	15.89	13.99
DPS (Rs)	6.3	7.0	8.5	9.5
Dividend Yield	2.58%	2.89%	3.51%	3.92%
EV/EBITDA (x)	12.40	11.07	9.12	7.97
P/FCFE (x)	64.43	60.25	24.81	23.66
Net Gearing	(11.0%)	(3.8%)	(7.0%)	(8.5%)
P/BV (x)	6.17	5.40	4.69	4.08
ROE	31.5%	30.0%	31.6%	31.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	387,527	442,082	505,758	558,584
Gross Profit	111,300	124,540	145,764	160,736
Operating EBITDA	49,306	55,096	65,606	73,807
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,193)	(7,366)	(8,023)	(8,653)
Operating EBIT	42,112	47,730	57,583	65,154
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,169)	(1,136)	(927)	(746)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,503	2,703	3,000	3,330
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	42,446	49,297	59,656	67,738
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	42,446	49,297	59,656	67,738
Taxation	(10,450)	(12,324)	(14,914)	(16,935)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	1,037
Profit After Tax	33,033	36,973	44,742	50,804
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	33,033	36,973	44,742	50,804
Recurring Net Profit	31,996	36,973	44,742	50,804
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	31,996	36,973	44,742	50,804

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	49,306	55,096	65,606	73,807
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	19,355	(2,689)	359	(1,758)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(884)	(3,488)	1,550	(1,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(84)	0	0	(4)
Other Operating Cashflow	1,037
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	333	1,567	2,073	2,584
Tax Paid	(14,974)	(15,775)	(19,090)	(21,676)
Cashflow From Operations	54,089	34,711	50,498	51,953
Capex	(7,937)	(16,366)	(18,023)	(18,653)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(14,204)	(5,549)	(1,824)	(1,258)
Cash Flow From Investing	(22,141)	(21,915)	(19,847)	(19,912)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(20,917)	(1,000)	(2,000)	(2,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(18,353)	(20,556)	(24,960)	(27,897)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(39,270)	(21,556)	(26,960)	(29,897)
Total Cash Generated	(7,322)	(8,760)	3,691	2,144
Free Cashflow To Equity	11,031	11,796	28,651	30,041
Free Cashflow To Firm	34,117	13,932	31,577	32,787

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	27,060	18,300	21,991	24,135
Total Debtors	28,673	36,335	44,340	53,563
Inventories	29,573	36,335	44,340	50,502
Total Other Current Assets	20,084	21,084	22,084	23,084
Total Current Assets	105,389	112,054	132,755	151,283
Fixed Assets	62,937	71,937	81,937	91,937
Total Investments	86,730	95,730	101,730	107,730
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	149,667	167,667	183,667	199,667
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	73,047	84,783	101,152	114,778
Other Current Liabilities	31,647	30,000	31,500	31,500
Total Current Liabilities	104,694	114,783	132,652	146,278
Total Long-term Debt	14,354	13,354	11,354	9,354
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	14,354	13,354	11,354	9,354
Total Provisions	20,820	19,979	21,028	21,024
Total Liabilities	139,868	148,116	165,035	176,656
Shareholders Equity	115,188	131,605	151,387	174,294
Minority Interests
Total Equity	115,188	131,605	151,387	174,294

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	1.0%	14.1%	14.4%	10.4%
Operating EBITDA Growth	7.0%	11.7%	19.1%	12.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	12.7%	12.5%	13.0%	13.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	4.33	1.68	3.62	5.03
BVPS (Rs)	39.23	44.82	51.55	59.35
Gross Interest Cover	19.41	42.01	62.15	87.39
Effective Tax Rate	24.6%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	57.4%	55.6%	55.8%	54.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	30.32	26.84	29.11	31.99
Inventory Days	40.62	37.88	40.90	43.51
Accounts Payables Days	89.92	90.71	94.26	99.05
ROIC (%)	53.5%	87.4%	75.8%	72.7%
ROCE (%)	31.9%	33.4%	36.1%	36.5%
Return On Average Assets	13.6%	14.1%	15.2%	15.4%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg