InCred Equities - Ashok Leyland

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	383,670	391,129	456,164	531,739
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	46,065	47,149	55,526	65,897
Net Profit (Rsm)	26,178	31,040	36,114	43,878
Core EPS (Rs)	9.2	10.2	12.3	14.9
Core EPS Growth	109.3%	10.1%	20.9%	21.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	22.60	20.52	16.97	13.97
DPS (Rs)	4.9	5.5	6.5	7.8
Dividend Yield	2.37%	2.64%	3.11%	3.74%
EV/EBITDA (x)	12.12	11.60	9.61	8.02
P/FCFE (x)	13.96	35.75	31.54	35.76
Net Gearing	1.0%	(3.0%)	(6.2%)	(4.7%)
P/BV (x)	6.96	5.95	5.11	4.35
ROE	31.5%	31.3%	32.4%	33.6%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	383,670	391,129	456,164	531,739
Gross Profit	104,550	110,053	125,892	146,248
Operating EBITDA	46,065	47,149	55,526	65,897
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,178)	(7,636)	(8,166)	(8,830)
Operating EBIT	38,887	39,513	47,360	57,067
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,494)	(2,330)	(2,058)	(1,727)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	2,466	2,638	2,849	3,163
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	38,859	39,821	48,151	58,504
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	38,859	39,821	48,151	58,504
Taxation	(11,743)	(9,955)	(12,038)	(14,626)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(937)	1,174
Profit After Tax	26,178	31,040	36,114	43,878
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	26,178	31,040	36,114	43,878
Recurring Net Profit	27,116	29,866	36,114	43,878
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	27,116	29,866	36,114	43,878

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	46,065	47,149	55,526	65,897
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(7,933)	10,984	2,319	(7,292)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	15,636	(4,628)	3,000	1,550
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	528		0	0
Other Operating Cashflow	(937)	1,174
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(29)	308	791	1,436
Tax Paid	(12,854)	(13,340)	(15,408)	(18,721)
Cashflow From Operations	40,476	41,647	46,227	42,870
Capex	(4,394)	(17,889)	(17,166)	(18,830)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	4,351	(3,615)	(5,629)	(1,905)
Cash Flow From Investing	(43)	(21,504)	(22,795)	(20,734)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	3,470	(3,000)	(4,000)	(5,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(14,535)	(16,150)	(19,086)	(22,903)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(11,064)	(19,150)	(23,086)	(27,903)
Total Cash Generated	29,369	993	346	(5,767)
Free Cashflow To Equity	43,903	17,143	19,432	17,136
Free Cashflow To Firm	42,927	22,473	25,491	23,863

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	34,382	35,375	35,721	29,954
Total Debtors	35,699	36,434	49,991	64,100
Inventories	31,907	34,291	41,242	50,989
Total Other Current Assets	16,339	17,339	18,339	19,339
Total Current Assets	118,326	123,438	145,293	164,382
Fixed Assets	74,885	72,447	81,446	91,446
Total Investments	55,598	62,598	71,598	77,598
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	130,483	135,044	153,044	169,044
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	63,052	77,154	99,981	116,546
Other Current Liabilities	30,380	28,000	30,000	31,500
Total Current Liabilities	93,432	105,154	129,981	148,046
Total Long-term Debt	35,271	32,271	28,271	23,271
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	35,271	32,271	28,271	23,271
Total Provisions	19,311	18,063	20,063	21,113
Total Liabilities	148,014	155,489	178,315	192,430
Shareholders Equity	88,104	102,994	120,022	140,996
Minority Interests
Total Equity	88,104	102,994	120,022	140,996

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	6.1%	1.9%	16.6%	16.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	57.2%	2.4%	17.8%	18.7%
Operating EBITDA Margin	12.0%	12.1%	12.2%	12.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(0.30)	1.06	2.54	2.28
BVPS (Rs)	30.01	35.09	40.89	48.03
Gross Interest Cover	15.59	16.96	23.01	33.05
Effective Tax Rate	30.2%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	53.6%	54.1%	52.8%	52.2%
Accounts Receivables Days	36.31	33.66	34.58	39.16
Inventory Days	39.00	42.98	41.74	43.66
Accounts Payables Days	88.14	91.03	97.88	102.51
ROIC (%)	38.6%	40.5%	57.3%	62.6%
ROCE (%)	31.1%	29.3%	32.1%	35.3%
Return On Average Assets	11.9%	12.4%	13.5%	14.3%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

More Reports

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg