InCred Equities - Hindustan Petroleum

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	2,332,485	3,398,472	2,846,395	2,655,864
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	160,034	119,563	135,297	142,434
Net Profit (Rsm)	106,629	70,643	67,913	69,609
Core EPS (Rs)	70.6	49.5	47.9	49.1
Core EPS Growth	307.5%	(29.8%)	(3.4%)	2.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	5.13	7.31	7.56	7.38
DPS (Rs)	22.8	14.0	14.0	14.0
Dividend Yield	6.54%	3.89%	3.87%	3.87%
EV/EBITDA (x)	5.17	7.30	6.08	5.50
P/FCFE (x)	15.67	15.25	34.48	51.09
Net Gearing	99.0%	121.6%	109.7%	100.6%
P/BV (x)	1.38	1.25	1.14	1.03
ROE	30.9%	17.9%	15.8%	14.6%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	2,332,485	3,398,472	2,846,395	2,655,864
Gross Profit	262,916	215,974	250,433	263,932
Operating EBITDA	160,034	119,563	135,297	142,434
Depreciation And Amortisation	(36,255)	(40,883)	(49,660)	(55,787)
Operating EBIT	123,779	78,680	85,637	86,647
Financial Income/(Expense)	(9,633)	(10,018)	(24,117)	(25,295)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	1,387	6,050	8,176	9,474
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	26,437	16,874	17,525	18,224
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	141,970	91,586	87,221	89,050
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	141,970	91,586	87,221	89,050
Taxation	(35,341)	(20,943)	(19,307)	(19,441)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	106,629	70,643	67,913	69,609
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	106,629	70,643	67,913	69,609
Recurring Net Profit	106,629	70,643	67,913	69,609
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	106,629	70,643	67,913	69,609

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	160,034	119,563	135,297	142,434
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	26,437	16,874	17,525	18,224
Change In Working Capital	45,902	(28,662)	73,484	26,759
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(7,754)	(1,312)	(2,198)	(2,198)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(9,633)	(10,018)	(24,117)	(25,295)
Tax Paid	(35,862)	(21,261)	(19,638)	(19,771)
Cashflow From Operations	179,123	75,183	180,353	140,154
Capex	(136,394)	(117,406)	(117,734)	(91,634)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(6,252)	(45,302)	(45,100)	(45,099)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(142,646)	(162,708)	(162,834)	(136,733)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(2,927)	121,218	(2,619)	6,635
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased	(16,356)	(7,625)
Dividends Paid	(14,857)	(32,436)	(23,406)	(19,860)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(34,140)	81,156	(26,025)	(13,225)
Total Cash Generated	2,337	(6,368)	(8,506)	(9,805)
Free Cashflow To Equity	33,551	33,693	14,900	10,055
Free Cashflow To Firm	46,110	(77,506)	41,636	28,716

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	59,925	59,925	59,925	59,925
Total Debtors	68,700	64,756	54,227	50,593
Inventories	287,639	288,474	271,196	259,503
Total Other Current Assets	62,095	65,157	66,176	67,215
Total Current Assets	478,359	478,313	451,523	437,235
Fixed Assets	763,264	839,788	907,861	943,708
Total Investments	96,759	142,061	187,161	232,260
Intangible Assets	3,216	3,216	3,216	3,216
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	863,239	985,065	1,098,239	1,179,184
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	436,723	408,014	454,709	467,181
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	436,723	408,014	454,709	467,181
Total Long-term Debt	437,088	558,306	555,687	562,322
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	437,088	558,306	555,687	562,322
Total Provisions	86,978	87,148	87,305	87,463
Total Liabilities	960,789	1,053,468	1,097,701	1,116,966
Shareholders Equity	380,809	409,909	452,060	499,454
Minority Interests
Total Equity	380,809	409,909	452,060	499,454

	Mar-21A	Mar-22F	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	(13.3%)	45.7%	(16.2%)	(6.7%)
Operating EBITDA Growth	189.1%	(25.3%)	13.2%	5.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	6.9%	3.5%	4.8%	5.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(259.75)	(351.33)	(349.48)	(354.16)
BVPS (Rs)	262.26	288.96	318.68	352.09
Gross Interest Cover	12.85	7.85	3.55	3.43
Effective Tax Rate	24.9%	22.9%	22.1%	21.8%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	32.2%	28.3%	29.2%	28.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	8.45	7.17	7.63	7.20
Inventory Days	42.41	33.04	39.35	40.49
Accounts Payables Days	67.95	48.44	60.65	70.34
ROIC (%)	12.4%	6.9%	7.6%	7.6%
ROCE (%)	17.9%	10.1%	9.9%	9.6%
Return On Average Assets	9.1%	5.6%	5.7%	5.6%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg