InCred Equities - Hindalco Industries Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	2,159,620	2,137,849	2,186,593	2,218,201
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	238,720	275,297	303,516	303,427
Net Profit (Rsm)	101,550	132,870	153,846	153,648
Core EPS (Rs)	45.7	59.9	69.3	69.2
Core EPS Growth	0.7%	31.0%	15.8%	(0.1%)
FD Core P/E (x)	13.99	10.69	9.24	9.25
DPS (Rs)	4.0	4.0	4.0	4.0
Dividend Yield	0.63%	0.63%	0.63%	0.63%
EV/EBITDA (x)	7.04	5.95	5.10	4.81
P/FCFE (x)	40.11	17.18	11.31	11.44
Net Gearing	36.0%	28.5%	18.7%	10.8%
P/BV (x)	1.34	1.20	1.07	0.96
ROE	10.1%	11.8%	12.2%	11.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	2,159,620	2,137,849	2,186,593	2,218,201
Gross Profit	821,070	854,468	874,908	878,461
Operating EBITDA	238,720	275,297	303,516	303,427
Depreciation And Amortisation	(75,210)	(78,752)	(80,577)	(82,401)
Operating EBIT	163,510	196,545	222,939	221,025
Financial Income/(Expense)	(38,580)	(29,248)	(27,599)	(25,950)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	20
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,960	10,336	10,336	10,336
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	139,910	177,633	205,676	205,412
Exceptional Items	210
Pre-tax Profit	140,120	177,633	205,676	205,412
Taxation	(38,570)	(44,764)	(51,830)	(51,764)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	101,550	132,870	153,846	153,648
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	101,550	132,870	153,846	153,648
Recurring Net Profit	101,398	132,870	153,846	153,648
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	101,398	132,870	153,846	153,648

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	238,720	275,297	303,516	303,427
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	19,440	7,351	(2,743)	(2,354)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(6,040)	(327)	0	0
Other Operating Cashflow	53,770	39,584	37,935	36,287
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(38,580)	(29,248)	(27,599)	(25,950)
Tax Paid	(26,750)	(44,764)	(51,830)	(51,764)
Cashflow From Operations	240,560	247,894	259,279	259,646
Capex	(157,280)	(165,169)	(133,683)	(135,489)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	500
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	14,020
Cash Flow From Investing	(142,760)	(165,169)	(133,683)	(135,489)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(62,380)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(6,670)	(8,880)	(8,880)	(8,880)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(39,120)	(29,248)	(27,599)	(25,950)
Cash Flow From Financing	(108,170)	(38,128)	(36,479)	(34,830)
Total Cash Generated	(10,370)	44,597	89,117	89,327
Free Cashflow To Equity	35,420	82,725	125,596	124,157
Free Cashflow To Firm	136,380	111,973	153,196	150,107

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	177,090	221,687	310,804	400,131
Total Debtors	164,040	180,661	185,171	188,980
Inventories	408,120	356,892	361,529	365,466
Total Other Current Assets	74,180	74,180	74,180	74,180
Total Current Assets	823,430	833,420	931,685	1,028,757
Fixed Assets	978,310	1,064,727	1,117,833	1,170,921
Total Investments	121,720	121,720	121,720	121,720
Intangible Assets	260,750	261,396	261,396	261,396
Total Other Non-Current Assets	134,860	134,887	134,887	134,887
Total Non-current Assets	1,495,640	1,582,730	1,635,835	1,688,923
Short-term Debt	71,060	71,060	71,060	71,060
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	344,440	316,727	323,131	328,523
Other Current Liabilities	178,010	178,468	178,468	178,468
Total Current Liabilities	593,510	566,255	572,659	578,051
Total Long-term Debt	488,260	488,260	488,260	488,260
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	19,940	20,113	20,113	20,113
Total Non-current Liabilities	508,200	508,373	508,373	508,373
Total Provisions	155,790	155,963	155,963	155,963
Total Liabilities	1,257,500	1,230,590	1,236,994	1,242,387
Shareholders Equity	1,061,460	1,185,450	1,330,416	1,475,183
Minority Interests	110	110	110	110
Total Equity	1,061,570	1,185,560	1,330,526	1,475,293

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	(3.2%)	(1.0%)	2.3%	1.4%
Operating EBITDA Growth	5.3%	15.3%	10.3%	0.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.1%	12.9%	13.9%	13.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(172.18)	(152.09)	(111.94)	(71.71)
BVPS (Rs)	478.14	533.99	599.29	664.50
Gross Interest Cover	4.24	6.72	8.08	8.52
Effective Tax Rate	27.5%	25.2%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	8.8%	6.7%	5.8%	5.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	27.56	29.43	30.53	30.78
Inventory Days	114.21	108.79	99.96	99.03
Accounts Payables Days	95.85	94.02	89.03	88.77
ROIC (%)	8.3%	9.8%	10.6%	10.1%
ROCE (%)	9.8%	11.1%	11.7%	10.8%
Return On Average Assets	5.6%	6.5%	7.0%	6.5%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg