InCred Equities - Blue Dart Express Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	52,678	57,303	63,034	68,644
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	8,528	8,810	10,177	11,171
Net Profit (Rsm)	3,010	2,563	3,086	3,333
Core EPS (Rs)	126.7	107.9	129.9	140.3
Core EPS Growth	(18.8%)	(14.8%)	20.4%	8.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	49.13	57.69	47.91	44.37
DPS (Rs)	25.0	28.8	33.1	38.0
Dividend Yield	0.40%	0.46%	0.53%	0.61%
EV/EBITDA (x)	17.44	16.74	14.22	12.64
P/FCFE (x)	28.78	71.51	39.82	31.73
Net Gearing	6.5%	(2.4%)	(17.9%)	(33.9%)
P/BV (x)	10.82	9.59	8.42	7.46
ROE	23.6%	17.6%	18.7%	17.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	52,678	57,303	63,034	68,644
Gross Profit	21,835	23,329	26,028	28,419
Operating EBITDA	8,528	8,810	10,177	11,171
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,329)	(4,909)	(5,609)	(6,309)
Operating EBIT	4,199	3,901	4,568	4,862
Financial Income/(Expense)	(781)	(837)	(837)	(837)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	508	400	440	479
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,927	3,464	4,171	4,504
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,927	3,464	4,171	4,504
Taxation	(917)	(901)	(1,084)	(1,171)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	3,010	2,563	3,086	3,333
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	3,010	2,563	3,086	3,333
Recurring Net Profit	3,010	2,563	3,086	3,333
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	3,010	2,563	3,086	3,333

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	8,528	8,810	10,177	11,171
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	790	(405)	18	17
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(272)	(437)	(397)	(358)
Tax Paid	(917)	(901)	(1,084)	(1,171)
Cashflow From Operations	8,129	7,068	8,714	9,660
Capex	(1,674)	(5,000)	(5,000)	(5,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	(1,364)
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(3,037)	(5,000)	(5,000)	(5,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	47
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(712)	(819)	(941)	(1,083)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3,719)
Cash Flow From Financing	(4,384)	(819)	(941)	(1,083)
Total Cash Generated	708	1,249	2,772	3,577
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,138	2,068	3,714	4,660
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,872	2,905	4,550	5,497

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	1,662	2,912	5,684	9,261
Total Debtors	6,704	7,449	8,194	8,924
Inventories	518	564	620	675
Total Other Current Assets	901	980	1,078	1,173
Total Current Assets	9,786	11,905	15,576	20,033
Fixed Assets	18,266	18,357	17,747	16,438
Total Investments	3,073	3,073	3,073	3,073
Intangible Assets	698	698	698	698
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,786	2,786	2,786	2,786
Total Non-current Assets	24,823	24,914	24,305	22,995
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	6,073	6,398	7,037	7,664
Other Current Liabilities	2,630	2,771	3,048	3,319
Total Current Liabilities	8,704	9,169	10,085	10,983
Total Long-term Debt	2,547	2,547	2,547	2,547
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9,678	9,678	9,678	9,678
Total Non-current Liabilities	12,225	12,225	12,225	12,225
Total Provisions	8	8	8	8
Total Liabilities	20,936	21,401	22,318	23,216
Shareholders Equity	13,673	15,417	17,562	19,813
Minority Interests
Total Equity	13,673	15,417	17,562	19,813

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	1.8%	8.8%	10.0%	8.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(9.0%)	3.3%	15.5%	9.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.2%	15.4%	16.1%	16.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(37.23)	15.35	132.02	282.58
BVPS (Rs)	575.45	648.88	739.16	833.88
Gross Interest Cover	5.38	4.66	5.46	5.81
Effective Tax Rate	23.3%	26.0%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.7%	26.6%	25.4%	27.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	45.28	45.08	45.29	45.51
Inventory Days	5.40	5.81	5.84	5.88
Accounts Payables Days	70.56	66.99	66.26	66.70
ROIC (%)	19.2%	18.4%	21.1%	23.1%
ROCE (%)	27.5%	22.8%	24.0%	22.9%
Return On Average Assets	11.3%	9.5%	10.2%	10.1%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1500 shivam.agarwal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg