InCred Equities - V-Guard Industries

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	48,567	56,247	62,821	71,558
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	4,267	5,625	6,328	7,391
Net Profit (Rsm)	2,576	3,446	3,912	4,758
Core EPS (Rs)	5.9	7.9	9.0	11.0
Core EPS Growth	36.3%	33.6%	13.5%	21.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	71.52	53.56	47.17	38.79
DPS (Rs)	1.3	1.5	1.8	2.3
Dividend Yield	0.31%	0.36%	0.42%	0.54%
EV/EBITDA (x)	43.65	33.04	29.12	24.50
P/FCFE (x)	194.78	65.91	54.20	53.89
Net Gearing	11.2%	6.1%	(1.1%)	(12.6%)
P/BV (x)	10.15	8.82	7.67	6.64
ROE	15.1%	17.6%	17.4%	18.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	48,567	56,247	62,821	71,558
Gross Profit	16,326	19,417	21,786	25,174
Operating EBITDA	4,267	5,625	6,328	7,391
Depreciation And Amortisation	(809)	(894)	(940)	(1,003)
Operating EBIT	3,458	4,731	5,388	6,388
Financial Income/(Expense)	(368)	(237)	(274)	(148)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	313	112	117	121
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,403	4,606	5,231	6,361
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,403	4,606	5,231	6,361
Taxation	(827)	(1,160)	(1,318)	(1,603)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	2,576	3,446	3,912	4,758
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	2,576	3,446	3,912	4,758
Recurring Net Profit	2,576	3,446	3,912	4,758
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	2,576	3,446	3,912	4,758

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	4,267	5,625	6,328	7,391
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	308	(801)	(741)	(1,190)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(183)	(125)	(157)	(27)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	368	237	274	148
Tax Paid	(833)	(1,160)	(1,318)	(1,603)
Cashflow From Operations	3,927	3,776	4,385	4,719
Capex	(1,274)	(859)	(885)	(911)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(281)			(500)
Other Investing Cashflow	29	81	105	217
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,526)	(778)	(780)	(1,194)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,455)	(200)	(200)	(100)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	61
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(563)	(671)	(780)	(997)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(365)	(318)	(379)	(366)
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,322)	(1,189)	(1,359)	(1,463)
Total Cash Generated	79	1,809	2,246	2,062
Free Cashflow To Equity	946	2,798	3,405	3,425
Free Cashflow To Firm	2,006	2,680	3,226	3,159

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	875	1,435	2,775	5,919
Total Debtors	5,958	6,900	7,707	8,779
Inventories	8,118	9,094	9,985	11,373
Total Other Current Assets	1,423	1,648	1,840	2,096
Total Current Assets	16,375	19,077	22,307	28,167
Fixed Assets	9,465	9,527	9,472	9,381
Total Investments	722	722	722	722
Intangible Assets	2,528	2,528	2,528	2,528
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,426	2,328	2,328	2,328
Total Non-current Assets	15,141	15,106	15,051	14,960
Short-term Debt	1,538	1,432	1,326	1,274
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	5,500	6,370	7,114	8,104
Other Current Liabilities	2,983	3,455	3,859	4,396
Total Current Liabilities	10,021	11,257	12,300	13,773
Total Long-term Debt	1,373	1,278	1,184	1,137
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,061	1,061	1,061	1,061
Total Non-current Liabilities	2,433	2,339	2,245	2,197
Total Provisions	919	919	919	919
Total Liabilities	13,374	14,515	15,464	16,890
Shareholders Equity	18,142	20,917	24,050	27,811
Minority Interests
Total Equity	18,142	20,917	24,050	27,811

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	17.7%	15.8%	11.7%	13.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	33.4%	31.8%	12.5%	16.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	8.8%	10.0%	10.1%	10.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(4.70)	(2.94)	0.61	8.09
BVPS (Rs)	41.91	48.23	55.46	64.13
Gross Interest Cover	8.75	14.88	14.21	17.46
Effective Tax Rate	24.3%	25.2%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.5%	14.6%	14.9%	15.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	43.76	41.72	42.44	42.04
Inventory Days	89.40	85.29	84.85	84.03
Accounts Payables Days	58.79	58.82	59.97	59.88
ROIC (%)	16.3%	22.1%	24.3%	27.9%
ROCE (%)	16.1%	20.7%	21.1%	22.5%
Return On Average Assets	12.5%	14.7%	15.4%	16.2%

(91) 22 4161 1542 arafat.saiyed@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg