InCred Equities - V-Guard Industries

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	48,567	55,608	62,795	71,533
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	4,267	5,357	6,334	7,398
Net Profit (Rsm)	2,576	3,270	3,911	4,752
Core EPS (Rs)	5.9	7.5	9.0	11.0
Core EPS Growth	36.3%	26.7%	19.6%	21.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	59.62	47.05	39.34	32.37
DPS (Rs)	1.3	1.5	1.8	2.3
Dividend Yield	0.37%	0.44%	0.51%	0.65%
EV/EBITDA (x)	36.47	28.96	24.25	20.32
P/FCFE (x)	162.38	56.49	46.36	45.00
Net Gearing	11.2%	6.1%	(1.1%)	(12.7%)
P/BV (x)	8.47	7.42	6.44	5.57
ROE	15.1%	16.8%	17.5%	18.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	48,567	55,608	62,795	71,533
Gross Profit	16,326	19,607	21,777	25,165
Operating EBITDA	4,267	5,357	6,334	7,398
Depreciation And Amortisation	(809)	(944)	(940)	(1,003)
Operating EBIT	3,458	4,412	5,394	6,396
Financial Income/(Expense)	(368)	(198)	(310)	(192)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	313	138	144	150
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,403	4,353	5,228	6,354
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,403	4,353	5,228	6,354
Taxation	(827)	(1,083)	(1,318)	(1,601)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	2,576	3,270	3,911	4,752
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	2,576	3,270	3,911	4,752
Recurring Net Profit	2,576	3,270	3,911	4,752
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	2,576	3,270	3,911	4,752

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	4,267	5,357	6,334	7,398
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	308	(712)	(827)	(1,190)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(183)	(59)	(166)	(42)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	368	198	310	192
Tax Paid	(833)	(1,083)	(1,318)	(1,601)
Cashflow From Operations	3,927	3,699	4,334	4,756
Capex	(1,274)	(859)	(885)	(911)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(281)			(500)
Other Investing Cashflow	29	81	69	174
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,526)	(778)	(815)	(1,237)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(1,455)	(200)	(200)	(100)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	61
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(563)	(671)	(780)	(997)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(365)	(279)	(379)	(366)
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,322)	(1,150)	(1,359)	(1,463)
Total Cash Generated	79	1,771	2,159	2,056
Free Cashflow To Equity	946	2,721	3,318	3,419
Free Cashflow To Firm	2,006	2,643	3,139	3,153

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	875	1,435	2,775	5,919
Total Debtors	5,958	6,822	7,704	8,776
Inventories	8,118	8,991	9,981	11,369
Total Other Current Assets	1,423	1,629	1,839	2,095
Total Current Assets	16,375	18,877	22,299	28,159
Fixed Assets	9,465	9,477	9,422	9,331
Total Investments	722	722	722	722
Intangible Assets	2,528	2,528	2,528	2,528
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,426	2,328	2,328	2,328
Total Non-current Assets	15,141	15,055	15,001	14,910
Short-term Debt	1,538	1,432	1,326	1,274
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	5,500	6,298	7,112	8,101
Other Current Liabilities	2,983	3,416	3,857	4,394
Total Current Liabilities	10,021	11,146	12,295	13,769
Total Long-term Debt	1,373	1,278	1,184	1,137
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,061	1,061	1,061	1,061
Total Non-current Liabilities	2,433	2,339	2,245	2,197
Total Provisions	919	919	919	919
Total Liabilities	13,374	14,404	15,459	16,885
Shareholders Equity	18,142	20,741	23,872	27,628
Minority Interests
Total Equity	18,142	20,741	23,872	27,628

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	17.7%	14.5%	12.9%	13.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	33.4%	25.5%	18.2%	16.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	8.8%	9.6%	10.1%	10.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(4.70)	(2.94)	0.61	8.09
BVPS (Rs)	41.91	47.83	55.05	63.71
Gross Interest Cover	8.75	15.83	14.22	17.49
Effective Tax Rate	24.3%	24.9%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.5%	15.4%	14.9%	15.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	43.76	41.94	42.22	42.04
Inventory Days	89.40	86.73	84.41	84.03
Accounts Payables Days	58.79	59.81	59.66	59.88
ROIC (%)	16.3%	20.6%	24.5%	28.0%
ROCE (%)	16.1%	19.4%	21.1%	22.6%
Return On Average Assets	12.5%	13.9%	15.6%	16.3%

(91) 02241611548 anirvan.divakera@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg