InCred Equities - Indian Oil Corp

	Mar-21A	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue (Rsm)	3,639,496	5,746,190	5,369,112	5,160,525
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	405,849	454,803	380,577	412,103
Net Profit (Rsm)	216,382	249,449	190,569	204,673
Core EPS (Rs)	15.3	17.7	13.5	14.5
Core EPS Growth	(1,675.2%)	15.3%	(23.6%)	7.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	8.49	7.37	9.64	8.98
DPS (Rs)	8.0	8.0	7.0	7.0
Dividend Yield	6.15%	6.15%	5.38%	5.38%
EV/EBITDA (x)	6.26	5.09	6.75	6.36
P/FCFE (x)	17.26	24.62	28.03	20.57
Net Gearing	90.3%	61.1%	74.1%	72.4%
P/BV (x)	1.64	1.42	1.30	1.21
ROE	20.9%	20.6%	14.1%	14.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Net Revenues	3,639,496	5,746,190	5,369,112	5,160,525
Gross Profit	884,907	929,405	880,721	932,415
Operating EBITDA	405,849	454,803	380,577	412,103
Depreciation And Amortisation	(109,415)	(114,731)	(117,184)	(127,625)
Operating EBIT	296,434	340,073	263,393	284,478
Financial Income/(Expense)	(35,891)	(51,591)	(47,552)	(47,520)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	11,969	16,021	15,573	15,143
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	34,995	29,949	21,175	20,520
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	307,507	334,451	252,589	272,621
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	307,507	334,451	252,589	272,621
Taxation	(89,885)	(82,131)	(61,771)	(67,078)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	217,622	252,320	190,818	205,543
Minority Interests	(1,240)	(2,871)	(249)	(870)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	216,382	249,449	190,569	204,673
Recurring Net Profit	216,382	249,449	190,569	204,673
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	216,382	249,449	190,569	204,673

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
EBITDA	405,849	454,803	380,577	412,103
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	34,995	29,949	21,175	20,520
Change In Working Capital	167,506	215,375	(172,930)	31,396
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	25,252	1,149	527	718
Other Operating Cashflow	44,177	2,746	(1,359)	(1,583)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(35,891)	(51,591)	(47,552)	(47,520)
Tax Paid	(89,885)	(82,131)	(61,771)	(67,078)
Cashflow From Operations	552,003	570,300	118,667	348,556
Capex	(242,949)	(263,436)	(312,486)	(316,432)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(89,837)	(12,682)	(2,500)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(332,786)	(276,118)	(314,986)	(316,432)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(131,372)	(219,540)	261,889	57,228
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(96,405)	(91,788)	(74,843)	(98,849)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(227,777)	(311,328)	187,046	(41,620)
Total Cash Generated	(8,560)	(17,146)	(9,273)	(9,497)
Free Cashflow To Equity	87,845	74,642	65,570	89,352
Free Cashflow To Firm	255,108	345,773	(148,767)	79,644

(Rs mn)	Mar-21A	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Total Cash And Equivalents	147,735	146,610	152,910	158,460
Total Debtors	138,003	23,994	176,317	169,639
Inventories	834,275	875,413	880,520	850,487
Total Other Current Assets	159,847	164,538	166,583	168,670
Total Current Assets	1,279,860	1,210,555	1,376,330	1,347,256
Fixed Assets	1,945,109	2,093,814	2,289,115	2,477,923
Total Investments	324,180	336,862	339,362	339,362
Intangible Assets	10	19,285	19,285	19,285
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	2,269,300	2,449,961	2,647,763	2,836,570
Short-term Debt	475,800	171,762	431,651	486,878
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	1,005,853	1,153,293	1,139,838	1,136,611
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	1,481,653	1,325,055	1,571,489	1,623,489
Total Long-term Debt	690,731	775,229	777,229	779,230
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	690,731	775,229	777,229	779,230
Total Provisions	248,636	249,540	250,067	250,784
Total Liabilities	2,421,020	2,349,825	2,598,785	2,653,504
Shareholders Equity	1,118,380	1,298,159	1,412,624	1,516,865
Minority Interests	9,759	12,533	12,684	13,458
Total Equity	1,128,139	1,310,692	1,425,308	1,530,323

	Mar-21A	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F
Revenue Growth	(24.9%)	57.9%	(6.6%)	(3.9%)
Operating EBITDA Growth	245.1%	12.1%	(16.3%)	8.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.2%	7.9%	7.1%	8.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(72.15)	(56.68)	(74.78)	(78.44)
BVPS (Rs)	79.20	91.93	100.04	107.42
Gross Interest Cover	8.26	6.59	5.54	5.99
Effective Tax Rate	29.2%	24.6%	24.5%	24.6%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	36.9%	34.1%	39.2%	36.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.57	5.15	6.81	12.23
Inventory Days	99.67	64.78	71.40	74.72
Accounts Payables Days	120.32	81.81	93.24	98.26
ROIC (%)	10.7%	12.6%	8.2%	8.3%
ROCE (%)	13.8%	15.3%	11.0%	10.7%
Return On Average Assets	9.8%	10.3%	7.5%	7.5%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

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Source: Bloomberg