InCred Equities - Coromandel International Ltd

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue (Rsm)	131,367	144,909	157,108	170,114
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	17,310	20,273	22,152	23,986
Net Profit (Rsm)	10,651	12,904	14,890	16,191
Core EPS (Rs)	36.4	44.0	50.8	55.3
Core EPS Growth	44.6%	21.1%	15.4%	8.7%
FD Core P/E (x)	55.40	45.76	39.66	36.47
DPS (Rs)	12.0	13.0	14.5	14.5
Dividend Yield	0.60%	0.65%	0.72%	0.72%
EV/EBITDA (x)	0.77	0.41	0.12	(0.21)
P/FCFE (x)	208.75	99.60	111.81	56.24
Net Gearing	35.8%	19.5%	7.4%	(3.9%)
P/BV (x)	13.68	11.13	9.32	7.82
ROE	27.8%	26.8%	25.6%	23.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Net Revenues	131,367	144,909	157,108	170,114
Gross Profit	40,811	47,095	51,060	55,287
Operating EBITDA	17,310	20,273	22,152	23,986
Depreciation And Amortisation	(1,580)	(1,628)	(1,710)	(1,910)
Operating EBIT	15,730	18,645	20,442	22,076
Financial Income/(Expense)	(2,353)	(1,650)	(1,246)	(849)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	9
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	400	420	441	464
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	13,786	17,415	19,637	21,691
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	13,786	17,415	19,637	21,691
Taxation	(3,135)	(4,512)	(4,747)	(5,499)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	10,651	12,904	14,890	16,191
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	10,651	12,904	14,890	16,191
Recurring Net Profit	10,651	12,904	14,890	16,191
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	10,651	12,904	14,890	16,191

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
EBITDA	17,310	20,273	22,152	23,986
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	3,119	(2,072)	(2,235)	(2,248)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	4,182	2,160	469	1,007
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(2,353)	(1,650)	(1,246)	(849)
Tax Paid	(3,638)	(4,512)	(4,747)	(5,499)
Cashflow From Operations	18,620	14,199	14,393	16,397
Capex	(2,559)	(4,000)	(4,000)	(4,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(20)
Other Investing Cashflow	359	70	341	364
Cash Flow From Investing	(2,219)	(3,930)	(3,659)	(3,636)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(13,574)	(4,341)	(5,454)	(2,262)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	137
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,234)	(3,516)	(3,809)	(4,249)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(2,545)	(1,650)	(1,246)	(849)
Cash Flow From Financing	(17,216)	(9,507)	(10,509)	(7,359)
Total Cash Generated	(816)	762	226	5,402
Free Cashflow To Equity	2,826	5,928	5,281	10,499
Free Cashflow To Firm	18,753	11,920	11,981	13,609

(Rs mn)	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Total Cash And Equivalents	783	1,545	1,771	7,173
Total Debtors	17,341	19,851	21,522	23,303
Inventories	26,971	31,761	34,435	37,285
Total Other Current Assets	28,557	29,493	30,675	31,799
Total Current Assets	73,652	82,650	88,402	99,561
Fixed Assets	20,750	23,122	25,412	27,501
Total Investments	2,113	2,113	2,113	2,113
Intangible Assets	227	227	227	227
Total Other Non-Current Assets	4,745	5,537	6,035	6,559
Total Non-current Assets	27,836	31,000	33,787	36,401
Short-term Debt	16,251	11,910	6,456	4,195
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	33,481	39,701	43,043	46,607
Other Current Liabilities	3,933	4,318	4,666	5,036
Total Current Liabilities	53,665	55,930	54,165	55,837
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	3,857	3,857	3,857	3,857
Total Non-current Liabilities	3,857	3,857	3,857	3,857
Total Provisions	789	789	789	789
Total Liabilities	58,311	60,576	58,811	60,483
Shareholders Equity	43,177	53,074	63,378	75,479
Minority Interests
Total Equity	43,177	53,074	63,378	75,479

	Mar-20A	Mar-21F	Mar-22F	Mar-23F
Revenue Growth	(0.7%)	10.3%	8.4%	8.3%
Operating EBITDA Growth	20.0%	17.1%	9.3%	8.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.2%	14.0%	14.1%	14.1%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(52.79)	(35.38)	(15.99)	10.17
BVPS (Rs)	147.36	181.14	216.31	257.61
Gross Interest Cover	6.69	11.30	16.41	26.02
Effective Tax Rate	22.7%	25.9%	24.2%	25.4%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	33.0%	29.5%	28.5%	26.2%
Accounts Receivables Days	49.44	46.84	48.06	48.09
Inventory Days	119.68	109.58	113.92	113.99
Accounts Payables Days	143.30	136.54	142.40	142.48
ROIC (%)	20.0%	22.8%	23.2%	23.4%
ROCE (%)	25.3%	29.7%	30.1%	29.3%
Return On Average Assets	12.0%	13.1%	13.4%	13.0%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com