InCred Equities - Tata Motors

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	4,379,278	4,432,623	5,130,251	6,029,002
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	688,893	656,143	795,176	931,371
Net Profit (Rsm)	318,865	204,094	268,499	320,307
Core EPS (Rs)	63.6	55.5	73.0	87.0
Core EPS Growth	(759.3%)	(12.9%)	31.6%	19.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	7.75	12.11	9.21	7.72
DPS (Rs)	4.0	6.0	8.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	0.62%	0.93%	1.24%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.21	4.50	3.77	3.12
P/FCFE (x)	8.62	(27.98)	(74.76)	31.78
Net Gearing	36.9%	36.1%	33.7%	22.0%
P/BV (x)	2.91	2.40	1.95	1.56
ROE	36.0%	21.7%	23.4%	22.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	4,379,278	4,432,623	5,130,251	6,029,002
Gross Profit	1,636,065	1,638,028	1,965,647	2,307,732
Operating EBITDA	688,893	656,143	795,176	931,371
Depreciation And Amortisation	(382,289)	(353,468)	(386,306)	(439,019)
Operating EBIT	306,605	302,675	408,870	492,353
Financial Income/(Expense)	(99,858)	(74,925)	(70,747)	(66,755)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	59,499	56,410	57,127	57,542
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	266,246	284,160	395,250	483,139
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	266,246	284,160	395,250	483,139
Taxation	(40,351)	(79,565)	(126,480)	(164,267)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	84,647
Profit After Tax	310,542	204,595	268,770	318,872
Minority Interests	1,326	(4,000)	(4,400)	(3,520)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	6,998	3,499	4,129	4,955
Net Profit	318,865	204,094	268,499	320,307
Recurring Net Profit	234,219	204,094	268,499	320,307
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	234,219	204,094	268,499	320,307

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	688,893	656,143	795,176	931,371
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(179,592)	(84,425)	(61,956)	(17,236)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(53,361)	(15,000)	(80,000)	(110,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(5,789)	(8,000)	(3,000)	2,000
Other Operating Cashflow	84,647
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(40,358)	(18,515)	(13,620)	(9,213)
Tax Paid	(40,351)	(79,565)	(126,480)	(164,267)
Cashflow From Operations	454,088	450,639	510,121	632,654
Capex	93,774	(379,535)	(427,991)	(442,956)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	10,425	(109,575)	(110,294)	(106,991)
Cash Flow From Investing	104,198	(489,110)	(538,285)	(549,947)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(271,514)	(49,911)	(4,911)	(4,911)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	5	(305)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(15,316)	(22,974)	(30,632)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(286,826)	(73,190)	(35,543)	(4,911)
Total Cash Generated	271,460	(111,661)	(63,707)	77,797
Free Cashflow To Equity	286,772	(88,382)	(33,075)	77,797
Free Cashflow To Firm	658,144	36,454	42,583	149,462

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	641,616	535,440	477,766	560,879
Total Debtors	251,958	267,172	323,276	379,910
Inventories	599,901	619,353	730,885	858,926
Total Other Current Assets	750,000	825,000	920,000	1,040,000
Total Current Assets	2,243,476	2,246,964	2,451,927	2,839,715
Fixed Assets	987,352	1,013,419	1,055,103	1,059,040
Total Investments	363,792	463,792	563,792	663,792
Intangible Assets	7,606	7,106	6,606	6,106
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	1,358,750	1,484,316	1,625,501	1,728,938
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	899,852	850,092	955,773	1,123,211
Other Current Liabilities	535,000	550,000	560,000	570,000
Total Current Liabilities	1,434,852	1,400,092	1,515,773	1,693,211
Total Long-term Debt	985,001	935,001	930,001	925,001
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	985,001	935,001	930,001	925,001
Total Provisions	251,434	288,434	290,434	292,434
Total Liabilities	2,671,286	2,623,527	2,736,207	2,910,646
Shareholders Equity	849,180	1,029,995	1,267,862	1,588,168
Minority Interests	81,759	77,759	73,359	69,839
Total Equity	930,939	1,107,754	1,341,221	1,658,007

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	26.6%	1.2%	15.7%	17.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	82.7%	(4.8%)	21.2%	17.1%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.7%	14.8%	15.5%	15.4%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(93.31)	(108.58)	(122.89)	(98.95)
BVPS (Rs)	230.76	279.89	344.53	431.57
Gross Interest Cover	3.07	4.04	5.78	7.38
Effective Tax Rate	15.2%	28.0%	32.0%	34.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	6.5%	11.3%	11.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	17.06	21.37	21.00	21.29
Inventory Days	67.02	79.62	77.87	77.97
Accounts Payables Days	112.59	114.28	104.14	101.96
ROIC (%)	20.5%	17.5%	20.6%	21.7%
ROCE (%)	16.5%	15.2%	18.8%	20.1%
Return On Average Assets	9.2%	7.0%	8.2%	8.5%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg