InCred Equities - Tata Motors

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	4,422,980	4,994,120	5,753,126	6,505,525
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	701,110	752,185	876,007	1,005,673
Net Profit (Rsm)	261,822	258,816	311,022	374,230
Core EPS (Rs)	67.7	70.3	84.5	101.7
Core EPS Growth	6.4%	3.9%	20.2%	20.3%
FD Core P/E (x)	9.99	10.11	8.41	6.99
DPS (Rs)	6.0	8.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	0.88%	1.17%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.14	3.73	3.00	2.55
P/FCFE (x)	(95.69)	23.94	12.39	25.42
Net Gearing	17.6%	9.1%	(2.6%)	(4.9%)
P/BV (x)	2.25	1.88	1.57	1.32
ROE	24.8%	20.3%	20.4%	20.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	4,422,980	4,994,120	5,753,126	6,505,525
Gross Profit	1,733,470	1,897,507	2,192,829	2,490,633
Operating EBITDA	701,110	752,185	876,007	1,005,673
Depreciation And Amortisation	(339,980)	(383,178)	(424,679)	(468,792)
Operating EBIT	361,130	369,007	451,328	536,881
Financial Income/(Expense)	(69,230)	(45,679)	(43,437)	(37,125)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	64,400	59,798	63,130	64,323
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	356,300	383,126	471,021	564,079
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	356,300	383,126	471,021	564,079
Taxation	(105,390)	(122,600)	(160,147)	(191,787)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	12,700
Profit After Tax	263,610	260,525	310,874	372,292
Minority Interests	(5,000)	(5,500)	(4,400)	(3,520)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	3,212	3,790	4,548	5,458
Net Profit	261,822	258,816	311,022	374,230
Recurring Net Profit	249,122	258,816	311,022	374,230
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	249,122	258,816	311,022	374,230

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	701,110	752,185	876,007	1,005,673
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	76,126	(149,590)	1,748	11,036
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	218,263	(131,192)		(195,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	64,487	3,760	2,000	2,000
Other Operating Cashflow	12,700
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(4,830)	14,118	19,693	27,198
Tax Paid	(105,390)	(122,600)	(160,147)	(191,787)
Cashflow From Operations	962,465	366,681	739,300	659,120
Capex	(584,824)	(145,684)	(419,308)	(450,115)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(45,062)	(106,799)	(103,841)	(101,172)
Cash Flow From Investing	(629,886)	(252,482)	(523,149)	(551,286)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(359,922)	(4,911)	(4,911)	(4,911)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(305)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(22,080)	(29,440)	(40,480)	(51,520)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(382,307)	(34,351)	(45,391)	(56,431)
Total Cash Generated	(49,727)	79,848	170,761	51,403
Free Cashflow To Equity	(27,342)	109,288	211,241	102,923
Free Cashflow To Firm	401,810	159,878	259,589	144,959

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	408,340	488,188	658,949	710,352
Total Debtors	132,480	164,190	204,906	267,350
Inventories	472,690	574,666	598,956	712,934
Total Other Current Assets	596,180	630,000	685,000	720,000
Total Current Assets	1,609,690	1,857,044	2,147,810	2,410,637
Fixed Assets	1,553,760	1,568,586	1,563,215	1,544,538
Total Investments	463,792	563,792	663,792	763,792
Intangible Assets	8,950	8,450	7,950	7,450
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	2,026,502	2,140,828	2,234,957	2,315,780
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	973,680	957,776	1,024,529	1,211,988
Other Current Liabilities	677,952	600,000	630,000	570,000
Total Current Liabilities	1,651,632	1,557,776	1,654,529	1,781,988
Total Long-term Debt	624,990	619,990	614,990	609,990
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	624,990	619,990	614,990	609,990
Total Provisions	384,350	368,690	395,690	297,690
Total Liabilities	2,660,972	2,546,457	2,665,209	2,689,668
Shareholders Equity	1,161,440	1,390,816	1,661,358	1,984,068
Minority Interests	66,100	60,600	56,200	52,680
Total Equity	1,227,540	1,451,416	1,717,558	2,036,748

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	1.0%	12.9%	15.2%	13.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	1.8%	7.3%	16.5%	14.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.9%	15.1%	15.2%	15.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(58.87)	(35.82)	11.95	27.27
BVPS (Rs)	315.61	377.94	451.46	539.15
Gross Interest Cover	5.22	8.08	10.39	14.46
Effective Tax Rate	29.6%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	9.2%	11.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.46	10.84	11.71	13.25
Inventory Days	64.50	61.73	60.16	59.63
Accounts Payables Days	129.84	113.83	101.61	101.66
ROIC (%)	23.4%	22.2%	21.8%	25.6%
ROCE (%)	19.0%	18.6%	20.3%	21.4%
Return On Average Assets	8.7%	7.7%	8.2%	8.8%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg