InCred Equities - Tata Motors

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	4,379,278	4,618,368	5,665,117	6,495,389
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	688,893	700,255	831,301	946,682
Net Profit (Rsm)	318,865	225,527	276,727	307,594
Core EPS (Rs)	63.6	61.3	75.2	83.6
Core EPS Growth	(759.3%)	(3.7%)	22.7%	11.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	9.04	12.78	10.42	9.37
DPS (Rs)	4.0	6.0	8.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	0.53%	0.80%	1.06%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.80	4.70	3.93	3.26
P/FCFE (x)	10.05	(454.27)	58.57	16.65
Net Gearing	36.9%	28.5%	21.7%	7.2%
P/BV (x)	3.39	2.74	2.22	1.80
ROE	36.0%	23.7%	23.6%	21.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	4,379,278	4,618,368	5,665,117	6,495,389
Gross Profit	1,636,065	1,718,964	2,136,431	2,444,833
Operating EBITDA	688,893	700,255	831,301	946,682
Depreciation And Amortisation	(382,289)	(384,960)	(436,388)	(518,691)
Operating EBIT	306,605	315,295	394,912	427,991
Financial Income/(Expense)	(99,858)	(76,207)	(72,073)	(66,103)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	59,499	60,904	56,585	60,042
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	266,246	299,992	379,425	421,930
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	266,246	299,992	379,425	421,930
Taxation	(40,351)	(83,998)	(113,827)	(126,579)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	84,647
Profit After Tax	310,542	215,994	265,597	295,351
Minority Interests	1,326	1,485	1,633	1,797
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	6,998	8,048	9,496	10,446
Net Profit	318,865	225,527	276,727	307,594
Recurring Net Profit	234,219	225,527	276,727	307,594
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	234,219	225,527	276,727	307,594

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	688,893	700,255	831,301	946,682
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(179,592)	(85,951)	(70,687)	(15,923)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(53,361)	(15,000)	(80,000)	(110,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(5,789)	(8,000)	(3,000)	2,000
Other Operating Cashflow	84,647
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(40,358)	(15,303)	(15,488)	(6,061)
Tax Paid	(40,351)	(83,998)	(113,827)	(126,579)
Cashflow From Operations	454,088	492,003	548,299	690,119
Capex	93,774	(359,865)	(407,352)	(426,574)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	10,425	(88,572)	(86,826)	(85,550)
Cash Flow From Investing	104,198	(448,437)	(494,178)	(512,124)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(271,514)	(49,911)	(4,911)	(4,911)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	5	(305)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(15,316)	(22,974)	(30,632)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(286,826)	(73,190)	(35,543)	(4,911)
Total Cash Generated	271,460	(29,624)	18,577	173,084
Free Cashflow To Equity	286,772	(6,345)	49,210	173,084
Free Cashflow To Firm	658,144	119,773	126,193	244,098

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	641,616	611,992	630,569	803,654
Total Debtors	251,958	278,367	356,980	409,298
Inventories	599,901	645,306	807,085	925,370
Total Other Current Assets	750,000	825,000	920,000	1,040,000
Total Current Assets	2,243,476	2,360,666	2,714,635	3,178,323
Fixed Assets	987,352	962,257	933,221	841,104
Total Investments	363,792	463,792	563,792	663,792
Intangible Assets	7,606	7,106	6,606	6,106
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	1,358,750	1,433,155	1,503,618	1,511,001
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	899,852	885,714	1,055,419	1,210,100
Other Current Liabilities	535,000	550,000	560,000	570,000
Total Current Liabilities	1,434,852	1,435,715	1,615,419	1,780,100
Total Long-term Debt	985,001	935,001	930,001	925,001
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	985,001	935,001	930,001	925,001
Total Provisions	251,434	288,434	290,434	292,434
Total Liabilities	2,671,286	2,659,149	2,835,854	2,997,534
Shareholders Equity	849,180	1,051,427	1,297,522	1,605,115
Minority Interests	81,759	83,244	84,877	86,674
Total Equity	930,939	1,134,671	1,382,399	1,691,790

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	26.6%	5.5%	22.7%	14.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	82.7%	1.6%	18.7%	13.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.7%	15.2%	14.7%	14.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(93.31)	(87.77)	(81.37)	(32.97)
BVPS (Rs)	230.76	285.71	352.59	436.17
Gross Interest Cover	3.07	4.14	5.48	6.47
Effective Tax Rate	15.2%	28.0%	30.0%	30.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	6.5%	10.2%	11.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	17.06	20.96	20.47	21.53
Inventory Days	67.02	78.38	75.12	78.06
Accounts Payables Days	112.59	112.39	100.39	102.07
ROIC (%)	20.5%	18.2%	20.6%	20.4%
ROCE (%)	16.5%	15.7%	17.9%	17.3%
Return On Average Assets	9.2%	7.4%	8.1%	7.9%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg