InCred Equities - TVS Motor Co Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	320,743	355,327	395,036	439,154
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	38,120	41,751	44,639	49,624
Net Profit (Rsm)	23,810	25,081	26,179	29,113
Core EPS (Rs)	48.2	52.3	55.1	61.3
Core EPS Growth	59.7%	8.7%	5.3%	11.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	49.81	47.28	45.30	40.73
DPS (Rs)	8.0	9.0	10.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	0.32%	0.36%	0.40%	0.48%
EV/EBITDA (x)	31.43	28.50	26.81	24.01
P/FCFE (x)	189.37	103.25	75.77	125.58
Net Gearing	15.8%	5.3%	10.7%	4.5%
P/BV (x)	15.34	14.99	11.79	9.57
ROE	33.2%	31.8%	29.1%	25.9%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	320,743	355,327	395,036	439,154
Gross Profit	86,453	101,624	110,610	122,963
Operating EBITDA	38,120	41,751	44,639	49,624
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,004)	(7,643)	(8,563)	(9,583)
Operating EBIT	31,117	34,108	36,077	40,042
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,816)	(1,400)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	285	800	800	800
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	29,585	33,508	35,377	39,342
Exceptional Items	1,201	285
Pre-tax Profit	30,786	33,793	35,377	39,342
Taxation	(6,977)	(8,712)	(9,198)	(10,229)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	23,810	25,081	26,179	29,113
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	23,810	25,081	26,179	29,113
Recurring Net Profit	22,881	24,870	26,179	29,113
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	22,881	24,870	26,179	29,113

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	38,120	41,751	44,639	49,624
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	5,001	919	3,911	(2,752)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	3,312	(172)	(300)	(300)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(1,531)	(600)	(700)	(700)
Tax Paid	(6,977)	(8,712)	(9,198)	(10,229)
Cashflow From Operations	37,925	33,186	38,352	35,643
Capex	(11,787)	(11,000)	(12,000)	(13,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(12,562)	(10,200)	(9,200)	(11,200)
Cash Flow From Investing	(24,350)	(21,200)	(21,200)	(24,700)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(7,313)	(500)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares			(19,000)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(3,801)	(4,276)	(4,751)	(5,701)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	1,201	285
Cash Flow From Financing	(9,913)	(4,491)	(25,251)	(7,201)
Total Cash Generated	3,663	7,494	(8,099)	3,742
Free Cashflow To Equity	6,262	11,486	15,652	9,443
Free Cashflow To Firm	15,392	13,386	18,652	12,443

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,083	13,577	5,478	9,220
Total Debtors	13,021	15,576	18,399	24,063
Inventories	13,708	17,523	20,564	26,470
Total Other Current Assets	10,878	11,950	13,150	14,350
Total Current Assets	43,690	58,626	57,590	74,103
Fixed Assets	47,020	50,377	53,815	57,732
Total Investments	69,913	79,913	88,913	99,913
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	116,933	130,290	142,727	157,645
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	51,122	58,410	68,184	77,002
Other Current Liabilities	8,560	9,060	9,560	10,060
Total Current Liabilities	59,682	67,470	77,744	87,062
Total Long-term Debt	18,265	17,765	16,265	14,765
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	18,265	17,765	16,265	14,765
Total Provisions	5,365	5,565	5,765	5,965
Total Liabilities	83,312	90,800	99,775	107,793
Shareholders Equity	77,310	79,115	100,543	123,955
Minority Interests
Total Equity	77,310	79,115	100,543	123,955

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	21.6%	10.8%	11.2%	11.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	42.5%	9.5%	6.9%	11.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	11.9%	11.7%	11.3%	11.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(25.64)	(8.82)	(22.71)	(11.67)
BVPS (Rs)	162.72	166.52	211.63	260.90
Gross Interest Cover	17.13	24.36	24.05	26.69
Effective Tax Rate	22.7%	25.8%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	16.8%	17.2%	18.1%	19.6%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.84	14.69	15.70	17.65
Inventory Days	20.31	22.47	24.44	27.15
Accounts Payables Days	72.00	78.79	81.23	83.80
ROIC (%)	75.4%	101.2%	95.5%	105.1%
ROCE (%)	33.6%	34.8%	33.2%	30.9%
Return On Average Assets	16.0%	14.8%	14.0%	14.0%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg