InCred Equities - TVS Motor Co Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	362,514	398,171	440,910	491,673
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	44,541	46,984	52,027	58,017
Net Profit (Rsm)	27,105	27,434	30,248	33,919
Core EPS (Rs)	57.3	57.7	63.7	71.4
Core EPS Growth	22.8%	0.9%	10.3%	12.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	48.16	47.59	43.16	38.49
DPS (Rs)	10.0	10.0	12.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	0.36%	0.36%	0.44%	0.44%
EV/EBITDA (x)	29.60	28.07	25.34	22.59
P/FCFE (x)	53.60	502.97	272.71	111.35
Net Gearing	12.8%	11.0%	8.7%	3.0%
P/BV (x)	13.14	10.70	8.91	7.47
ROE	30.8%	24.8%	22.5%	21.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	362,514	398,171	440,910	491,673
Gross Profit	104,907	113,479	125,659	139,635
Operating EBITDA	44,541	46,984	52,027	58,017
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,446)	(9,111)	(10,326)	(11,480)
Operating EBIT	37,095	37,873	41,701	46,537
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,387)	(1,550)	(1,625)	(1,600)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	706	750	800	900
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	36,414	37,073	40,876	45,837
Exceptional Items	(127)
Pre-tax Profit	36,287	37,073	40,876	45,837
Taxation	(9,183)	(9,639)	(10,628)	(11,918)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	27,105	27,434	30,248	33,919
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	27,105	27,434	30,248	33,919
Recurring Net Profit	27,200	27,434	30,248	33,919
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	27,200	27,434	30,248	33,919

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	44,541	46,984	52,027	58,017
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	7,086	(3,116)	(1,788)	(3,676)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(676)	3,866	(300)	200
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(681)	(800)	(825)	(700)
Tax Paid	(9,183)	(9,639)	(10,628)	(11,918)
Cashflow From Operations	41,088	37,296	38,487	41,924
Capex	(16,278)	(15,000)	(15,000)	(13,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(1,466)	(18,200)	(17,200)	(15,200)
Cash Flow From Investing	(17,744)	(33,200)	(32,200)	(28,700)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,011	(1,500)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares		(19,000)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,751)	(4,751)	(5,701)	(5,701)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(127)
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,867)	(25,251)	(7,201)	(7,201)
Total Cash Generated	19,477	(21,155)	(914)	6,023
Free Cashflow To Equity	24,355	2,596	4,787	11,724
Free Cashflow To Firm	24,731	5,646	7,912	14,824

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,559	4,403	3,489	9,512
Total Debtors	12,801	16,363	20,536	24,247
Inventories	17,258	20,727	26,575	29,635
Total Other Current Assets	14,446	11,480	12,680	13,380
Total Current Assets	51,063	52,973	63,280	76,774
Fixed Assets	55,852	61,741	66,415	68,434
Total Investments	92,714	110,714	127,714	142,714
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	148,566	172,455	194,129	211,148
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	61,537	65,453	73,686	76,782
Other Current Liabilities	12,016	12,516	13,016	13,516
Total Current Liabilities	73,553	77,969	86,702	90,298
Total Long-term Debt	19,276	17,776	16,276	14,776
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	19,276	17,776	16,276	14,776
Total Provisions	7,434	7,634	7,834	8,034
Total Liabilities	100,262	103,379	110,812	113,108
Shareholders Equity	99,367	122,050	146,597	174,815
Minority Interests
Total Equity	99,367	122,050	146,597	174,815

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	13.3%	9.8%	10.7%	11.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	19.1%	5.5%	10.7%	11.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	12.3%	11.8%	11.8%	11.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(26.77)	(28.15)	(26.91)	(11.08)
BVPS (Rs)	209.15	256.89	308.56	367.95
Gross Interest Cover	26.75	24.43	25.66	29.09
Effective Tax Rate	25.3%	26.0%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	17.4%	17.3%	18.8%	16.8%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.00	13.37	15.27	16.62
Inventory Days	21.94	24.35	27.38	29.14
Accounts Payables Days	79.81	81.41	80.55	78.00
ROIC (%)	111.2%	104.6%	95.4%	87.2%
ROCE (%)	33.9%	28.6%	27.0%	26.0%
Return On Average Assets	15.7%	13.4%	13.0%	12.9%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg