InCred Equities - TVS Motor Co Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	362,514	416,688	458,720	511,363
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	44,541	50,419	54,129	60,341
Net Profit (Rsm)	27,105	30,105	31,600	35,528
Core EPS (Rs)	57.3	62.9	66.5	74.8
Core EPS Growth	22.8%	9.9%	5.7%	12.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	61.22	55.11	52.51	46.70
DPS (Rs)	10.0	10.0	12.0	12.0
Dividend Yield	0.29%	0.29%	0.34%	0.34%
EV/EBITDA (x)	37.54	33.17	30.90	27.57
P/FCFE (x)	309.87	688.90	415.52	122.20
Net Gearing	12.8%	10.6%	9.0%	2.3%
P/BV (x)	16.70	13.30	11.02	9.20
ROE	30.8%	26.7%	23.0%	21.5%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	362,514	416,688	458,720	511,363
Gross Profit	104,907	118,756	130,735	145,227
Operating EBITDA	44,541	50,419	54,129	60,341
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,446)	(9,111)	(10,326)	(11,480)
Operating EBIT	37,095	41,308	43,803	48,860
Financial Income/(Expense)	(1,387)	(1,750)	(1,900)	(1,750)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	706	750	800	900
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	36,414	40,308	42,703	48,010
Exceptional Items	(127)	277
Pre-tax Profit	36,287	40,585	42,703	48,010
Taxation	(9,183)	(10,480)	(11,103)	(12,483)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	27,105	30,105	31,600	35,528
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	27,105	30,105	31,600	35,528
Recurring Net Profit	27,200	29,900	31,600	35,528
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	27,200	29,900	31,600	35,528

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	44,541	50,419	54,129	60,341
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	7,086	(1,797)	(2,033)	(1,030)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(676)	1,866	(300)	(300)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(681)	(1,000)	(1,100)	(850)
Tax Paid	(9,183)	(10,480)	(11,103)	(12,483)
Cashflow From Operations	41,088	39,009	39,593	45,678
Capex	(16,278)	(15,000)	(15,000)	(13,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(20,466)	(20,100)	(19,100)	(17,100)
Cash Flow From Investing	(36,744)	(35,100)	(34,100)	(30,600)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,011	(1,500)	(1,500)	(1,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(4,751)	(4,751)	(5,701)	(5,701)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(127)	277
Cash Flow From Financing	(3,867)	(5,974)	(7,201)	(7,201)
Total Cash Generated	477	(2,065)	(1,708)	7,877
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,355	2,409	3,993	13,578
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,731	5,659	7,393	16,828

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	6,559	4,493	2,785	10,662
Total Debtors	12,801	17,124	21,365	25,218
Inventories	17,258	21,691	27,649	29,421
Total Other Current Assets	14,446	13,380	14,480	15,580
Total Current Assets	51,063	56,688	66,279	80,881
Fixed Assets	55,852	61,741	66,415	68,434
Total Investments	92,714	112,714	131,714	148,714
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	148,566	174,455	198,129	217,148
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	61,537	68,497	76,663	81,258
Other Current Liabilities	12,016	12,516	13,016	13,516
Total Current Liabilities	73,553	81,013	89,679	94,774
Total Long-term Debt	19,276	17,776	16,276	14,776
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	19,276	17,776	16,276	14,776
Total Provisions	7,434	7,634	7,834	8,034
Total Liabilities	100,262	106,422	113,789	117,583
Shareholders Equity	99,367	124,721	150,619	180,446
Minority Interests
Total Equity	99,367	124,721	150,619	180,446

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	13.3%	14.9%	10.1%	11.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	19.1%	13.2%	7.4%	11.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	12.3%	12.1%	11.8%	11.8%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(26.77)	(27.96)	(28.39)	(8.66)
BVPS (Rs)	209.15	262.51	317.03	379.81
Gross Interest Cover	26.75	23.60	23.05	27.92
Effective Tax Rate	25.3%	25.8%	26.0%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	17.4%	15.9%	18.0%	16.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.00	13.11	15.31	16.62
Inventory Days	21.94	23.86	27.45	28.45
Accounts Payables Days	79.81	79.65	80.77	78.72
ROIC (%)	111.2%	114.0%	98.5%	89.9%
ROCE (%)	33.9%	30.9%	27.8%	26.5%
Return On Average Assets	15.7%	14.4%	13.3%	13.1%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg