InCred Equities - Timken Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	31,478	35,644	42,760	49,898
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	5,916	6,419	7,897	9,559
Net Profit (Rsm)	4,474	4,381	5,427	6,622
Core EPS (Rs)	59.5	58.3	72.2	88.0
Core EPS Growth	14.1%	(2.1%)	23.9%	22.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	55.64	56.81	45.86	37.59
DPS (Rs)	36.0	3.0	3.5	4.3
Dividend Yield	1.09%	0.09%	0.11%	0.13%
EV/EBITDA (x)	41.40	37.75	30.44	24.73
P/FCFE (x)	37.01	36.53	28.14	19.37
Net Gearing	(14.0%)	(20.1%)	(22.6%)	(28.4%)
P/BV (x)	8.75	7.63	6.59	5.65
ROE	17.0%	14.4%	15.4%	16.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	31,478	35,644	42,760	49,898
Gross Profit	12,474	14,044	16,762	19,710
Operating EBITDA	5,916	6,419	7,897	9,559
Depreciation And Amortisation	(848)	(1,085)	(1,251)	(1,383)
Operating EBIT	5,068	5,335	6,646	8,175
Financial Income/(Expense)	(43)	(35)	(30)	(30)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	502	581	669	744
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	5,527	5,881	7,285	8,889
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	5,527	5,881	7,285	8,889
Taxation	(1,053)	(1,500)	(1,858)	(2,267)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	4,474	4,381	5,427	6,622
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	4,474	4,381	5,427	6,622
Recurring Net Profit	4,474	4,381	5,427	6,622
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	4,474	4,381	5,427	6,622

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	5,916	6,419	7,897	9,559
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	(389)	(538)	(612)	(670)
Change In Working Capital	460	(1,662)	(2,816)	(2,335)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	848	1,085	1,251	1,383
Other Operating Cashflow	(459)	(546)	(639)	(714)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(43)	(35)	(30)	(30)
Tax Paid	(1,053)	(1,500)	(1,858)	(2,267)
Cashflow From Operations	5,280	3,222	3,193	4,927
Capex	(5,280)	(1,000)	(1,600)	(1,400)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	6,786	4,591	7,252	9,325
Cash Flow From Investing	1,506	3,591	5,652	7,925
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(60)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(2,708)	(226)	(263)	(323)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(43)	(35)	(30)	(30)
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,811)	(261)	(293)	(353)
Total Cash Generated	3,975	6,553	8,551	12,498
Free Cashflow To Equity	6,726	6,813	8,845	12,852
Free Cashflow To Firm	6,829	6,848	8,875	12,882

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	3,975	6,553	8,551	12,498
Total Debtors	6,998	8,203	9,958	11,210
Inventories	6,447	7,617	9,372	11,210
Total Other Current Assets	1,514	1,880	2,255	2,631
Total Current Assets	18,934	24,252	30,136	37,550
Fixed Assets	12,190	12,105	12,454	12,471
Total Investments	1,171	1,171	1,171	1,171
Intangible Assets	1,813	1,813	1,813	1,813
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	15,174	15,089	15,438	15,455
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	3,970	4,687	5,389	6,152
Other Current Liabilities	1,625	1,840	2,207	2,576
Total Current Liabilities	5,595	6,528	7,596	8,728
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions	210	210	210	210
Total Liabilities	5,805	6,737	7,806	8,938
Shareholders Equity	28,449	32,604	37,768	44,067
Minority Interests
Total Equity	28,449	32,604	37,768	44,067

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	8.7%	13.2%	20.0%	16.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	3.4%	8.5%	23.0%	21.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.8%	18.0%	18.5%	19.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	52.85	87.13	113.70	166.18
BVPS (Rs)	378.26	433.51	502.17	585.92
Gross Interest Cover	118.17	152.42	221.53	272.51
Effective Tax Rate	19.1%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	60.5%	5.1%	4.9%	4.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	78.37	77.83	77.51	77.42
Inventory Days	125.93	118.82	119.26	124.43
Accounts Payables Days	(75.17)	(73.15)	(70.73)	(69.77)
ROIC (%)	19.0%	16.7%	19.3%	21.1%
ROCE (%)	19.1%	17.4%	18.8%	19.9%
Return On Average Assets	14.1%	12.0%	12.8%	13.5%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg