InCred Equities - TCPL Packaging Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	17,703	20,433	23,644	26,818
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	2,931	3,320	3,920	4,470
Net Profit (Rsm)	1,430	1,438	1,802	2,153
Core EPS (Rs)	157.2	158.1	198.1	236.6
Core EPS Growth	43.9%	0.6%	25.3%	19.5%
FD Core P/E (x)	24.05	23.92	19.09	15.98
DPS (Rs)	20.0	22.0	22.1	27.7
Dividend Yield	0.58%	0.59%	0.73%	0.88%
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.68	12.13	10.18	8.83
P/FCFE (x)	56.45	22.69	41.63	38.59
Net Gearing	88.4%	76.7%	59.9%	46.0%
P/BV (x)	5.34	4.48	3.73	3.11
ROE	24.5%	20.4%	21.3%	21.2%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	17,703	20,433	23,644	26,818
Gross Profit	7,633	8,664	10,049	11,475
Operating EBITDA	2,931	3,320	3,920	4,470
Depreciation And Amortisation	(755)	(876)	(1,003)	(1,111)
Operating EBIT	2,176	2,444	2,916	3,359
Financial Income/(Expense)	(583)	(678)	(679)	(671)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	143	165	181	203
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	1,737	1,931	2,419	2,890
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	1,737	1,931	2,419	2,890
Taxation	(307)	(492)	(617)	(737)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	1,430	1,438	1,802	2,153
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	1,430	1,438	1,802	2,153
Recurring Net Profit	1,430	1,438	1,802	2,153
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	1,430	1,438	1,802	2,153

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	2,931	3,320	3,920	4,470
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(1,220)	(43)	(591)	(864)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	33	20	15	15
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	606	581	524	524
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(583)	(678)	(679)	(671)
Tax Paid	(431)	(492)	(617)	(737)
Cashflow From Operations	1,337	2,707	2,572	2,737
Capex	(1,590)	(1,350)	(1,350)	(1,450)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(20)	(20)	(40)	(40)
Other Investing Cashflow	(115)	(22)	(5)	(5)
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,726)	(1,392)	(1,395)	(1,495)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	998	200	(350)	(350)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(200)	(201)	(252)	(301)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(584)	(593)	(535)	(535)
Cash Flow From Financing	215	(594)	(1,137)	(1,187)
Total Cash Generated	(174)	722	39	55
Free Cashflow To Equity	609	1,516	826	891
Free Cashflow To Firm	194	1,994	1,855	1,913

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	201	204	219	300
Total Debtors	4,628	4,691	5,377	5,988
Inventories	2,139	2,407	2,850	3,453
Total Other Current Assets	460	501	515	583
Total Current Assets	7,428	7,803	8,961	10,324
Fixed Assets	7,604	8,873	9,358	9,846
Total Investments
Intangible Assets	68	88	128	168
Total Other Non-Current Assets	1,018	1,058	1,098	1,138
Total Non-current Assets	8,690	10,019	10,584	11,152
Short-term Debt	3,276	3,326	3,276	3,226
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	2,152	2,351	2,721	3,086
Other Current Liabilities	550	659	827	865
Total Current Liabilities	5,978	6,336	6,823	7,177
Total Long-term Debt	2,614	2,764	2,464	2,164
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	680	618	590	600
Total Non-current Liabilities	3,294	3,382	3,054	2,765
Total Provisions	408	428	443	458
Total Liabilities	9,680	10,146	10,320	10,400
Shareholders Equity	6,438	7,675	9,225	11,076
Minority Interests
Total Equity	6,438	7,675	9,225	11,076

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	14.8%	15.4%	15.7%	13.4%
Operating EBITDA Growth	16.6%	13.3%	18.1%	14.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.6%	16.2%	16.6%	16.7%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(625.22)	(646.89)	(606.73)	(559.38)
BVPS (Rs)	707.43	843.36	1,013.70	1,217.19
Gross Interest Cover	3.73	3.60	4.30	5.00
Effective Tax Rate	17.7%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	14.0%	14.0%	14.0%	14.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	83.26	83.23	77.71	77.34
Inventory Days	76.11	70.50	70.57	74.98
Accounts Payables Days	71.76	69.83	68.08	69.07
ROIC (%)	16.5%	16.7%	18.5%	19.5%
ROCE (%)	19.4%	18.9%	20.4%	21.5%
Return On Average Assets	13.7%	12.5%	13.3%	13.8%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

Market Data

Source: Bloomberg