InCred Equities - TCPL Packaging Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	15,414	17,086	19,210	22,073
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	2,514	2,875	3,313	3,858
Net Profit (Rsm)	1,014	1,169	1,404	1,750
Core EPS (Rs)	111.4	128.5	154.3	192.3
Core EPS Growth	3.6%	15.3%	20.1%	24.7%
FD Core P/E (x)	27.83	24.13	20.10	16.12
DPS (Rs)	23.7	22.0	25.7	30.9
Dividend Yield	0.71%	0.83%	1.00%	1.24%
EV/EBITDA (x)	13.07	11.50	9.91	8.41
P/FCFE (x)	36.19	32.00	20.97	30.71
Net Gearing	88.4%	78.4%	63.4%	48.8%
P/BV (x)	5.37	4.56	3.86	3.24
ROE	21.0%	20.4%	20.8%	21.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	15,414	17,086	19,210	22,073
Gross Profit	6,576	7,364	8,395	9,690
Operating EBITDA	2,514	2,875	3,313	3,858
Depreciation And Amortisation	(716)	(856)	(969)	(1,075)
Operating EBIT	1,799	2,019	2,344	2,783
Financial Income/(Expense)	(559)	(572)	(603)	(598)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	106	122	143	164
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	1,346	1,569	1,884	2,349
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	1,346	1,569	1,884	2,349
Taxation	(332)	(400)	(481)	(599)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	1,014	1,169	1,404	1,750
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	1,014	1,169	1,404	1,750
Recurring Net Profit	1,014	1,169	1,404	1,750
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	1,014	1,169	1,404	1,750

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	2,514	2,875	3,313	3,858
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	123	(374)	(444)	(640)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	32	40	20	20
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	606	534	581	524
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(559)	(572)	(603)	(598)
Tax Paid	(377)	(400)	(481)	(599)
Cashflow From Operations	2,340	2,104	2,387	2,564
Capex	(1,423)	(1,450)	(1,250)	(1,250)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(27)	(20)	(20)	(40)
Other Investing Cashflow	(115)	(52)	(22)	(5)
Cash Flow From Investing	(1,565)	(1,522)	(1,292)	(1,295)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	5	300	250	(350)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(182)	(234)	(281)	(350)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(584)	(560)	(593)	(535)
Cash Flow From Financing	(761)	(493)	(624)	(1,235)
Total Cash Generated	14	88	472	34
Free Cashflow To Equity	779	882	1,345	919
Free Cashflow To Firm	1,333	1,153	1,698	1,867

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	246	334	806	839
Total Debtors	3,449	3,598	4,013	4,566
Inventories	2,060	2,528	2,842	3,266
Total Other Current Assets	326	331	366	456
Total Current Assets	6,080	6,791	8,027	9,126
Fixed Assets	6,850	7,518	7,864	8,109
Total Investments
Intangible Assets	48	68	88	128
Total Other Non-Current Assets	297	397	497	597
Total Non-current Assets	7,195	7,983	8,449	8,834
Short-term Debt	2,644	2,744	2,794	2,744
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	1,807	1,966	2,210	2,540
Other Current Liabilities	566	616	672	748
Total Current Liabilities	5,017	5,326	5,676	6,032
Total Long-term Debt	2,248	2,448	2,648	2,348
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	294	309	317	326
Total Non-current Liabilities	2,542	2,757	2,965	2,673
Total Provisions	459	499	519	539
Total Liabilities	8,018	8,582	9,160	9,244
Shareholders Equity	5,257	6,193	7,316	8,716
Minority Interests
Total Equity	5,257	6,193	7,316	8,716

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	4.5%	10.8%	12.4%	14.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	6.5%	14.4%	15.2%	16.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.3%	16.8%	17.2%	17.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(510.56)	(533.84)	(509.49)	(467.40)
BVPS (Rs)	577.72	680.51	803.93	957.79
Gross Interest Cover	3.22	3.53	3.89	4.65
Effective Tax Rate	24.7%	25.5%	25.5%	25.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.7%	20.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	75.81	75.27	72.31	70.93
Inventory Days	92.30	86.12	90.61	90.01
Accounts Payables Days	70.80	70.83	70.48	70.01
ROIC (%)	16.9%	17.0%	18.3%	20.1%
ROCE (%)	18.5%	18.8%	19.4%	20.9%
Return On Average Assets	12.4%	12.4%	12.8%	13.6%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com