InCred Equities - Hero MotoCorp

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	372,283	436,238	488,744	538,424
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	50,283	63,055	69,219	75,098
Net Profit (Rsm)	39,006	48,475	53,408	58,198
Core EPS (Rs)	195.2	242.5	267.2	291.1
Core EPS Growth	33.8%	24.3%	10.2%	9.0%
FD Core P/E (x)	24.47	19.69	17.88	16.40
DPS (Rs)	140.1	160.1	180.2	200.2
Dividend Yield	2.93%	3.35%	3.77%	4.19%
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.26	12.94	11.59	10.51
P/FCFE (x)	35.06	31.84	23.14	22.16
Net Gearing	(76.1%)	(70.8%)	(71.2%)	(71.3%)
P/BV (x)	5.31	4.86	4.47	4.11
ROE	22.5%	25.8%	26.0%	26.1%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	372,283	436,238	488,744	538,424
Gross Profit	93,952	115,788	127,066	138,953
Operating EBITDA	50,283	63,055	69,219	75,098
Depreciation And Amortisation	(7,114)	(7,980)	(8,581)	(9,173)
Operating EBIT	43,169	55,075	60,639	65,925
Financial Income/(Expense)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	8,741	9,559	10,572	11,672
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	51,910	64,634	71,210	77,597
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	51,910	64,634	71,210	77,597
Taxation	(12,904)	(16,158)	(17,803)	(19,399)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	39,006	48,475	53,408	58,198
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	39,006	48,475	53,408	58,198
Recurring Net Profit	39,006	48,475	53,408	58,198
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	39,006	48,475	53,408	58,198

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	50,283	63,055	69,219	75,098
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	9,088	(12,399)	(2,428)	(3,390)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	2,092	(77)	(2,800)	(1,900)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	8,741	9,559	10,572	11,672
Tax Paid	(12,610)	(16,158)	(17,803)	(19,399)
Cashflow From Operations	57,595	43,980	56,760	62,081
Capex	(8,007)	(10,000)	(7,500)	(9,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(22,357)	(4,000)	(8,000)	(10,000)
Cash Flow From Investing	(30,365)	(14,000)	(15,500)	(19,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	0
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(27,972)	(31,976)	(35,982)	(39,980)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	1,101	2
Cash Flow From Financing	(26,871)	(31,975)	(35,982)	(39,980)
Total Cash Generated	359	(1,995)	5,278	3,101
Free Cashflow To Equity	27,230	29,980	41,260	43,081
Free Cashflow To Firm	27,230	29,980	41,260	43,081

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	136,951	138,955	152,233	165,333
Total Debtors	27,034	35,855	40,171	45,729
Inventories	14,438	19,123	22,763	25,077
Total Other Current Assets	14,147	15,000	18,500	21,000
Total Current Assets	192,570	208,932	233,667	257,140
Fixed Assets	63,145	65,165	64,085	63,912
Total Investments
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	63,145	65,165	64,085	63,912
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	55,282	56,388	61,917	66,399
Other Current Liabilities	16,224	17,000	17,700	18,300
Total Current Liabilities	71,506	73,388	79,617	84,699
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities
Total Provisions	4,348	4,348	4,348	4,348
Total Liabilities	75,854	77,736	83,965	89,047
Shareholders Equity	179,862	196,361	213,787	232,005
Minority Interests
Total Equity	179,862	196,361	213,787	232,005

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	10.1%	17.2%	12.0%	10.2%
Operating EBITDA Growth	26.0%	25.4%	9.8%	8.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	13.5%	14.5%	14.2%	13.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	685.10	695.12	761.55	827.08
BVPS (Rs)	899.76	982.30	1,069.47	1,160.60
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate	24.9%	25.0%	25.0%	25.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	71.7%	66.0%	67.4%	68.7%
Accounts Receivables Days	26.97	26.31	28.39	29.12
Inventory Days	18.87	19.11	21.14	21.86
Accounts Payables Days	67.09	63.60	59.70	58.62
ROIC (%)	56.4%	87.4%	73.6%	75.0%
ROCE (%)	29.2%	33.6%	34.0%	34.1%
Return On Average Assets	16.0%	18.3%	18.7%	18.8%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 02241611552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg