InCred Equities - Mahanagar Gas

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	69,210	69,144	67,212	71,245
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	11,842	18,439	15,038	14,147
Net Profit (Rsm)	7,901	12,764	11,583	10,698
Core EPS (Rs)	80.0	129.2	117.3	108.3
Core EPS Growth	32.3%	61.6%	(9.3%)	(7.6%)
FD Core P/E (x)	16.32	10.10	11.13	12.05
DPS (Rs)	10.0	10.0	5.0	5.0
Dividend Yield	0.77%	0.77%	0.38%	0.38%
EV/EBITDA (x)	10.70	5.96	6.95	7.01
P/FCFE (x)	53.58	9.09	12.83	13.61
Net Gearing	(5.5%)	(34.7%)	(40.0%)	(44.3%)
P/BV (x)	3.12	2.35	2.11	1.92
ROE	20.4%	26.5%	20.0%	16.7%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	69,210	69,144	67,212	71,245
Gross Profit	18,644	26,445	20,718	19,992
Operating EBITDA	11,842	18,439	15,038	14,147
Depreciation And Amortisation	(2,311)	(2,839)	(2,397)	(2,485)
Operating EBIT	9,531	15,600	12,640	11,662
Financial Income/(Expense)	(94)	(133)	(250)	(227)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	1,119	1,749	3,094	2,867
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	10,555	17,216	15,485	14,302
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	10,555	17,216	15,485	14,302
Taxation	(2,655)	(4,452)	(3,902)	(3,604)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	7,901	12,764	11,583	10,698
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	7,901	12,764	11,583	10,698
Recurring Net Profit	7,901	12,764	11,583	10,698
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	7,901	12,764	11,583	10,698

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	11,842	18,439	15,038	14,147
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	134	1,492	318	316
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	82	(56)	(56)	(56)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(524)	(133)	(250)	(227)
Tax Paid	(2,638)	(4,452)	(3,902)	(3,604)
Cashflow From Operations	8,897	15,289	11,148	10,576
Capex	(7,131)	(1,100)	(1,100)	(1,100)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	640
Cash Flow From Investing	(6,491)	(1,100)	(1,100)	(1,100)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(2,518)	(988)	(494)	(494)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(330)		1,000	1,000
Cash Flow From Financing	(2,848)	(988)	506	506
Total Cash Generated	(442)	13,201	10,554	9,982
Free Cashflow To Equity	2,406	14,189	10,048	9,476
Free Cashflow To Firm	2,500	14,322	10,297	9,703

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	2,279	18,999	24,434	29,793
Total Debtors	2,940	3,772	3,666	3,886
Inventories	338	656	637	675
Total Other Current Assets	14,505	11,656	11,656	11,656
Total Current Assets	20,062	35,083	40,394	46,011
Fixed Assets	28,318	29,418	30,518	31,618
Total Investments	7,086	7,086	7,086	7,086
Intangible Assets	51	51	51	51
Total Other Non-Current Assets	4,806	4,806	4,806	4,806
Total Non-current Assets	40,261	41,361	42,461	43,561
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	3,222	5,862	6,057	6,631
Other Current Liabilities	12,390	12,390	12,390	12,390
Total Current Liabilities	15,612	18,252	18,447	19,021
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	1,283	1,283	1,283	1,283
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,283	1,283	1,283	1,283
Total Provisions	2,086	2,086	2,086	2,086
Total Liabilities	18,981	21,621	21,816	22,390
Shareholders Equity	41,342	54,822	61,039	67,182
Minority Interests
Total Equity	41,342	54,822	61,039	67,182

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	78.2%	(0.1%)	(2.8%)	6.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	28.1%	55.7%	(18.4%)	(5.9%)
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.1%	26.7%	22.4%	19.9%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	23.07	192.34	247.36	301.62
BVPS (Rs)	418.54	555.01	617.94	680.13
Gross Interest Cover	101.50	117.30	50.64	51.40
Effective Tax Rate	25.2%	25.9%	25.2%	25.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	12.5%	7.7%	4.3%	4.6%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.61	17.72	20.20	19.35
Inventory Days	2.21	4.25	5.07	4.67
Accounts Payables Days	21.44	38.83	46.79	45.18
ROIC (%)	20.2%	36.3%	28.7%	25.9%
ROCE (%)	23.4%	31.1%	21.1%	17.6%
Return On Average Assets	14.1%	18.8%	14.8%	12.6%

(91) 2241611549 pratyush.kamal@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg