InCred Equities - Oil & Natural Gas

	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Revenue (Rsm)	5,317,619	4,814,722	4,577,294	4,558,231
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	798,737	909,291	904,903	887,840
Net Profit (Rsm)	475,266	463,351	452,085	485,672
Core EPS (Rs)	37.8	36.8	35.9	38.6
Core EPS Growth	192.5%	(2.5%)	(2.4%)	7.4%
FD Core P/E (x)	6.56	6.73	6.90	6.42
DPS (Rs)	14.0	12.0	10.0	10.0
Dividend Yield	5.65%	4.84%	4.03%	4.03%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.31	3.77	3.56	2.88
P/FCFE (x)	10.87	20.88	12.35	(7.75)
Net Gearing	24.4%	30.2%	22.4%	11.8%
P/BV (x)	0.86	1.07	0.97	0.95
ROE	16.3%	14.2%	14.8%	15.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Total Net Revenues	5,317,619	4,814,722	4,577,294	4,558,231
Gross Profit	857,668	977,295	975,907	956,844
Operating EBITDA	798,737	909,291	904,903	887,840
Depreciation And Amortisation	(268,832)	(264,991)	(281,396)	(255,809)
Operating EBIT	529,905	644,300	623,507	632,032
Financial Income/(Expense)	(56,960)	(66,638)	(66,307)	(52,313)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	74,376	71,733	74,775	69,524
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	547,321	649,395	631,975	649,242
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	547,321	649,395	631,975	649,242
Taxation	(47,971)	(176,201)	(163,414)	(137,205)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	499,350	473,194	468,560	512,038
Minority Interests	(38,724)	(30,488)	(38,053)	(28,074)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	14,639	20,645	21,578	1,708
Net Profit	475,266	463,351	452,085	485,672
Recurring Net Profit	475,266	463,351	452,085	485,672
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	475,266	463,351	452,085	485,672

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
EBITDA	798,737	909,291	904,903	887,840
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.	74,376	71,733	74,775	69,524
Change In Working Capital	70,365	(43,246)	21,139	67,199
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	(75,768)	9,736	8,527	(115,962)
Other Operating Cashflow	9,256	14,692	19,266	19,266
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(56,960)	(66,638)	(66,307)	(52,313)
Tax Paid	(47,971)	(176,201)	(163,414)	(137,205)
Cashflow From Operations	772,035	719,367	798,888	738,349
Capex	(479,737)	(484,734)	(458,634)	(401,634)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(59,365)	(55,100)	(55,099)	(331,388)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(539,102)	(539,834)	(513,733)	(733,023)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	54,033	(30,105)	(32,445)	(407,744)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(114,481)	(213,236)	(129,577)	(125,803)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(60,448)	(243,341)	(162,021)	(533,547)
Total Cash Generated	172,485	(63,808)	123,133	(528,221)
Free Cashflow To Equity	286,965	149,428	252,710	(402,418)
Free Cashflow To Firm	289,893	246,170	351,462	57,640

(Rs mn)	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Total Cash And Equivalents	450,964	401,750	543,128	495,294
Total Debtors	218,941	207,851	196,847	157,224
Inventories	446,130	428,198	414,148	415,012
Total Other Current Assets	445,728	462,883	480,197	400,026
Total Current Assets	1,561,763	1,500,681	1,634,320	1,467,556
Fixed Assets	4,102,915	3,355,339	3,475,753	2,945,007
Total Investments	840,526	895,627	950,726	1,282,114
Intangible Assets	135,386	135,386	135,386	12,108
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	5,078,828	4,386,352	4,561,865	4,239,229
Short-term Debt	277,596	213,739	200,042	219,711
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	934,368	879,254	892,652	843,712
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	1,211,964	1,092,993	1,092,695	1,063,424
Total Long-term Debt	1,108,307	1,142,059	1,123,311	695,898
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,108,307	1,142,059	1,123,311	695,898
Total Provisions	482,186	491,923	500,449	381,696
Total Liabilities	2,802,457	2,726,974	2,716,455	2,141,017
Shareholders Equity	3,612,772	2,914,539	3,211,869	3,271,056
Minority Interests	225,361	245,519	267,860	294,710
Total Equity	3,838,133	3,160,059	3,479,729	3,565,766

	Mar-22A	Mar-23F	Mar-24F	Mar-25F
Revenue Growth	74.9%	(9.5%)	(4.9%)	(0.4%)
Operating EBITDA Growth	61.5%	13.8%	(0.5%)	(1.9%)
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.0%	18.9%	19.8%	19.5%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(74.32)	(75.84)	(62.02)	(33.41)
BVPS (Rs)	287.18	231.68	255.31	260.01
Gross Interest Cover	9.30	9.67	9.40	12.08
Effective Tax Rate	8.8%	27.1%	25.9%	21.1%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	37.1%	32.6%	27.8%	25.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	13.89	16.18	16.14	14.18
Inventory Days	36.49	41.58	42.69	42.02
Accounts Payables Days	71.41	86.25	89.79	87.99
ROIC (%)	9.0%	13.0%	12.2%	15.3%
ROCE (%)	12.4%	13.7%	13.9%	14.2%
Return On Average Assets	9.5%	8.7%	8.9%	9.3%

(91) 22 4161 1562 satish.kumar@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1598 abbas.punjani@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg