InCred Equities - Hindustan Aeronautics Ltd

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	309,810	356,991	430,815	523,458
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	96,081	111,406	130,136	147,652
Net Profit (Rsm)	76,950	89,518	105,499	121,385
Core EPS (Rs)	115.1	133.9	157.7	181.5
Core EPS Growth	1.0%	16.3%	17.9%	15.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	41.24	35.45	30.08	26.15
DPS (Rs)	38.0	44.2	52.1	59.9
Dividend Yield	0.80%	0.93%	1.10%	1.26%
EV/EBITDA (x)	29.06	24.47	20.26	17.12
P/FCFE (x)	148.28	30.49	(104.03)	(83.47)
Net Gearing	(109.2%)	(109.2%)	(111.7%)	(114.9%)
P/BV (x)	9.07	7.75	6.61	5.65
ROE	24.0%	23.6%	23.7%	23.3%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	309,810	356,991	430,815	523,458
Gross Profit	186,929	221,004	262,398	308,355
Operating EBITDA	96,081	111,406	130,136	147,652
Depreciation And Amortisation	(13,404)	(14,929)	(16,954)	(19,041)
Operating EBIT	82,677	96,477	113,182	128,611
Financial Income/(Expense)	(87)	(100)	(121)	(147)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	407	407	407	407
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	18,985	21,877	26,401	32,078
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	101,982	118,660	139,868	160,948
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	101,982	118,660	139,868	160,948
Taxation	(25,032)	(29,142)	(34,369)	(39,564)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	76,950	89,518	105,499	121,385
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	76,950	89,518	105,499	121,385
Recurring Net Profit	76,950	89,518	105,499	121,385
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	76,950	89,518	105,499	121,385

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	96,081	111,406	130,136	147,652
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	47,556	(11,905)	(18,627)	(23,376)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	20,859	(4,481)	(5,408)	(6,571)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received
Tax Paid	(35,382)	(29,142)	(34,369)	(39,564)
Cashflow From Operations	129,115	65,878	71,732	78,141
Capex	(9,267)	(28,515)	(29,139)	(29,980)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(98,444)	66,736	(73,101)	(86,186)
Cash Flow From Investing	(107,711)	38,221	(102,241)	(116,166)
Debt Raised/(repaid)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(25,414)	(29,564)	(34,842)	(40,088)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(372)	41,302	64,661	81,150
Cash Flow From Financing	(25,785)	11,738	29,819	41,061
Total Cash Generated	(4,381)	115,838	(689)	3,037
Free Cashflow To Equity	21,404	104,099	(30,508)	(38,024)
Free Cashflow To Firm	21,404	104,099	(30,508)	(38,024)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	381,897	447,615	536,595	645,339
Total Debtors	46,478	53,556	64,631	78,530
Inventories	216,757	249,767	301,418	366,235
Total Other Current Assets	255,814	294,773	355,730	432,227
Total Current Assets	900,946	1,045,711	1,258,374	1,522,331
Fixed Assets	86,774	99,566	110,932	121,011
Total Investments	15,095	17,394	20,991	25,504
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	59,853	68,507	81,395	97,296
Total Non-current Assets	161,722	185,467	213,318	243,812
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	51,057	58,832	70,998	86,266
Other Current Liabilities	389,896	449,273	542,181	658,773
Total Current Liabilities	440,953	508,106	613,179	745,039
Total Long-term Debt
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	271,864	313,267	378,049	459,345
Total Non-current Liabilities	271,864	313,267	378,049	459,345
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	712,817	821,372	991,228	1,204,384
Shareholders Equity	349,816	409,770	480,427	561,723
Minority Interests	36	36	36	36
Total Equity	349,852	409,805	480,463	561,759

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	2.0%	15.2%	20.7%	21.5%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(1.4%)	16.0%	16.8%	13.5%
Operating EBITDA Margin	31.0%	31.2%	30.2%	28.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	571.04	669.30	802.35	964.95
BVPS (Rs)	523.07	612.71	718.36	839.92
Gross Interest Cover
Effective Tax Rate	24.5%	24.6%	24.6%	24.6%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	33.0%	33.0%	33.0%	33.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	54.58	51.14	50.07	49.91
Inventory Days	518.23	626.09	597.28	566.46
Accounts Payables Days	126.52	147.48	140.69	133.43
ROIC (%)	36.8%	37.4%	37.6%	36.7%
ROCE (%)	25.8%	25.4%	25.4%	24.7%
Return On Average Assets	8.4%	7.8%	7.8%	7.5%

(91) 02241611544 shubham.dalia@incredresearch.com

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Source: Bloomberg