InCred Equities - Lupin Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	196,825	227,079	250,295	259,610
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	34,965	53,967	62,082	62,210
Net Profit (Rsm)	16,302	32,816	39,946	39,258
Core EPS (Rs)	35.8	75.3	87.8	86.3
Core EPS Growth	279.1%	110.1%	16.6%	(1.7%)
FD Core P/E (x)	55.78	26.55	22.77	23.17
DPS (Rs)	7.5	8.5	8.5	8.5
Dividend Yield	0.38%	0.43%	0.43%	0.43%
EV/EBITDA (x)	26.19	17.01	14.39	13.73
P/FCFE (x)	27.80	13.06	12.42	8.01
Net Gearing	5.4%	5.1%	(7.7%)	(22.8%)
P/BV (x)	6.36	5.29	4.37	3.74
ROE	12.2%	21.8%	21.0%	17.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	196,825	227,079	250,295	259,610
Gross Profit	130,390	158,657	175,457	180,429
Operating EBITDA	34,965	53,967	62,082	62,210
Depreciation And Amortisation	(11,968)	(11,693)	(11,000)	(12,000)
Operating EBIT	22,996	42,275	51,082	50,210
Financial Income/(Expense)	(3,116)	(2,949)	(3,000)	(3,300)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	1,500	2,265	2,100	2,400
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	21,380	41,591	50,182	49,310
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	21,380	41,591	50,182	49,310
Taxation	(4,867)	(7,087)	(10,036)	(9,862)
Exceptional Income - post-tax		(1,441)
Profit After Tax	16,513	33,063	40,146	39,448
Minority Interests	(211)	(246)	(200)	(190)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	16,302	32,816	39,946	39,258
Recurring Net Profit	16,302	34,257	39,946	39,258
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	16,302	34,257	39,946	39,258

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	34,965	53,967	62,082	62,210
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	855	(14,105)	(10,221)	4,713
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow	(4,372)	661	1,711	1,711
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(1,125)	(1,611)	(1,611)	(1,611)
Tax Paid	(562)	(7,738)	(9,336)	(9,152)
Cashflow From Operations	29,760	31,174	42,625	57,872
Capex	(9,166)	(16,531)	(12,000)	(12,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments	(1,465)	(463)
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	19,129	14,181	30,625	45,372
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(16,171)	24,277		10,331
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	146	399
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(1,828)	(3,653)	(3,879)	(3,879)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(4,828)	(12,535)	(900)	(900)
Cash Flow From Financing	(22,682)	8,488	(4,779)	5,552
Total Cash Generated	(3,553)	22,669	25,845	50,924
Free Cashflow To Equity	32,717	69,633	73,249	113,575
Free Cashflow To Firm	52,005	48,304	76,249	106,544

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	20,521	42,014	66,859	116,783
Total Debtors	46,921	54,971	62,574	59,710
Inventories	49,539	54,764	57,568	57,114
Total Other Current Assets	17,497	16,237	20,024	19,471
Total Current Assets	134,477	167,986	207,025	253,078
Fixed Assets	54,942	55,036	56,036	56,536
Total Investments	2,277	873	873	873
Intangible Assets	41,566	47,324	47,324	47,324
Total Other Non-Current Assets	6,710	20,830	20,830	20,830
Total Non-current Assets	105,495	124,063	125,063	125,563
Short-term Debt	26,699	33,104	33,104	33,104
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	29,581	29,582	31,501	31,652
Other Current Liabilities	28,735	26,928	28,981	29,674
Total Current Liabilities	85,015	89,614	93,587	94,430
Total Long-term Debt	1,553	17,662	17,662	27,993
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9,670	11,829	11,829	11,829
Total Non-current Liabilities	11,222	29,491	29,491	39,822
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	96,237	119,105	123,078	134,252
Shareholders Equity	142,903	172,035	207,901	243,090
Minority Interests	832	909	1,109	1,299
Total Equity	143,735	172,944	209,010	244,389

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	18.3%	15.4%	10.2%	3.7%
Operating EBITDA Growth	103.2%	54.3%	15.0%	0.2%
Operating EBITDA Margin	17.8%	23.8%	24.8%	24.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(17.00)	(19.24)	35.38	122.44
BVPS (Rs)	314.21	378.27	457.13	534.50
Gross Interest Cover	7.38	14.34	17.03	15.22
Effective Tax Rate	22.8%	17.0%	20.0%	20.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio
Accounts Receivables Days	85.05	81.89	85.71	85.96
Inventory Days	259.48	278.20	273.93	264.32
Accounts Payables Days	150.80	157.80	148.96	145.56
ROIC (%)	10.8%	16.4%	18.7%	18.8%
ROCE (%)	13.5%	21.4%	21.1%	17.8%
Return On Average Assets	8.0%	13.8%	13.6%	11.8%

(91) 22 4161 1566 yogesh.soni@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg