InCred Equities - Gulshan Polyols Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	13,780	21,192	32,232	33,492
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	581	1,472	3,787	4,103
Net Profit (Rsm)	178	645	2,237	2,519
Core EPS (Rs)	3.4	11.3	35.9	40.4
Core EPS Growth	(60.8%)	228.7%	217.8%	12.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	52.52	15.97	5.03	4.46
DPS (Rs)	0.9	0.2	0.4	1.4
Dividend Yield	0.10%	0.23%	0.80%	0.90%
EV/EBITDA (x)	22.71	9.92	3.98	3.01
P/FCFE (x)	25.00	(16.63)	55.79	23.27
Net Gearing	64.6%	65.6%	44.2%	10.0%
P/BV (x)	1.58	1.72	1.29	1.01
ROE	3.1%	10.3%	29.3%	25.4%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	13,780	21,192	32,232	33,492
Gross Profit	4,945	7,643	13,538	14,402
Operating EBITDA	581	1,472	3,787	4,103
Depreciation And Amortisation	(324)	(416)	(570)	(570)
Operating EBIT	257	1,056	3,217	3,533
Financial Income/(Expense)	21	(178)	(174)	(105)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	279	878	3,043	3,427
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	279	878	3,043	3,427
Taxation	(100)	(233)	(806)	(908)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	178	645	2,237	2,519
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	178	645	2,237	2,519
Recurring Net Profit	178	645	2,237	2,519
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	178	645	2,237	2,519

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	581	1,472	3,787	4,103
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	172	(1,481)	(2,205)	(252)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	21	(178)	(174)	(105)
Tax Paid	(100)	(233)	(806)	(908)
Cashflow From Operations	674	(420)	602	2,838
Capex	(2,499)	0	0	0
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(2,499)	0	0	0
Debt Raised/(repaid)	2,200	(200)	(400)	(2,355)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares		10
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(9)	(26)	(89)	(101)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(101)	(232)	(214)	(145)
Cash Flow From Financing	2,090	(447)	(703)	(2,600)
Total Cash Generated	265	(867)	(102)	237
Free Cashflow To Equity	375	(620)	202	483
Free Cashflow To Firm	(1,725)	(188)	816	2,983

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	854	181	238	614
Total Debtors	1,654	2,544	3,870	4,021
Inventories	1,838	2,827	4,300	4,468
Total Other Current Assets	207	318	483	502
Total Current Assets	4,553	5,871	8,891	9,605
Fixed Assets	5,214	7,299	6,728	6,158
Total Investments	4	4	4	4
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,569	106	161	167
Total Non-current Assets	7,787	7,408	6,893	6,330
Short-term Debt	1,205	1,005	605
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt		1	2	2
Total Creditors	1,596	2,101	2,854	2,940
Other Current Liabilities
Total Current Liabilities	2,801	3,107	3,460	2,942
Total Long-term Debt	3,475	3,475	3,475	1,725
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	3,475	3,475	3,475	1,725
Total Provisions	144	148	154	155
Total Liabilities	6,420	6,730	7,089	4,821
Shareholders Equity	5,920	6,550	8,697	11,115
Minority Interests
Total Equity	5,920	6,550	8,697	11,115

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	16.8%	53.8%	52.1%	3.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(34.0%)	153.4%	157.3%	8.3%
Operating EBITDA Margin	4.2%	6.9%	11.7%	12.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(73.61)	(68.93)	(61.62)	(17.84)
BVPS (Rs)	113.90	105.01	139.44	178.21
Gross Interest Cover	2.56	4.55	15.03	24.34
Effective Tax Rate	36.0%	26.5%	26.5%	26.5%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	3.2%	2.9%	2.9%	2.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	40.67	36.16	36.32	43.00
Inventory Days	70.48	62.84	69.57	83.81
Accounts Payables Days	36.01	32.10	35.54	42.82
ROIC (%)	3.2%	10.7%	29.3%	27.8%
ROCE (%)	2.7%	9.6%	26.7%	27.3%
Return On Average Assets	2.3%	8.2%	22.1%	22.3%

(91) 22 4161 1550 nitin.awasthi@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg