InCred Equities - Blue Dart Express Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	52,678	57,202	62,448	68,006
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	8,528	8,726	9,311	10,419
Net Profit (Rsm)	3,010	2,524	2,834	3,310
Core EPS (Rs)	126.7	106.2	119.3	139.3
Core EPS Growth	(18.8%)	(16.1%)	12.3%	16.8%
FD Core P/E (x)	45.18	53.88	47.99	41.09
DPS (Rs)	25.0	25.0		25.0
Dividend Yield	0.44%	0.44%		0.44%
EV/EBITDA (x)	16.05	15.62	14.17	12.21
P/FCFE (x)	26.47	33.29	30.74	25.16
Net Gearing	6.5%	2.1%	(22.2%)	(41.8%)
P/BV (x)	9.95	8.72	7.38	6.47
ROE	23.6%	17.3%	16.7%	16.8%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	52,678	57,202	62,448	68,006
Gross Profit	21,835	23,040	24,877	27,309
Operating EBITDA	8,528	8,726	9,311	10,419
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,329)	(4,849)	(5,091)	(5,588)
Operating EBIT	4,199	3,877	4,220	4,831
Financial Income/(Expense)	(781)	(824)	(796)	(796)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	508	420	458	499
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	3,927	3,472	3,882	4,534
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	3,927	3,472	3,882	4,534
Taxation	(917)	(948)	(1,048)	(1,224)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	3,010	2,524	2,834	3,310
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	3,010	2,524	2,834	3,310
Recurring Net Profit	3,010	2,524	2,834	3,310
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	3,010	2,524	2,834	3,310

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	8,528	8,726	9,311	10,419
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	790	(498)	(2)	8
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(272)	(404)	(337)	(296)
Tax Paid	(917)	(948)	(1,048)	(1,224)
Cashflow From Operations	8,129	6,876	7,924	8,906
Capex	(1,674)	(1,459)	(3,500)	(3,500)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	(1,364)	(785)
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(3,037)	(2,244)	(3,500)	(3,500)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	47	(547)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(593)	(593)		(712)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(3,838)	(3,481)
Cash Flow From Financing	(4,384)	(4,621)		(712)
Total Cash Generated	707	11	4,424	4,694
Free Cashflow To Equity	5,138	4,085	4,424	5,406
Free Cashflow To Firm	5,872	5,456	5,219	6,202

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	1,662	1,673	6,097	10,791
Total Debtors	6,704	7,861	8,118	8,841
Inventories	518	515	563	613
Total Other Current Assets	901	1,128	1,230	1,339
Total Current Assets	9,786	11,177	16,008	21,583
Fixed Assets	18,266	18,329	16,738	14,650
Total Investments	3,073	3,858	3,858	3,858
Intangible Assets	698	576	576	576
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,786	2,688	2,688	2,688
Total Non-current Assets	24,823	25,451	23,860	21,772
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	6,073	6,845	7,135	7,770
Other Current Liabilities	2,630	2,741	2,857	3,111
Total Current Liabilities	8,704	9,586	9,992	10,881
Total Long-term Debt	2,547	2,000	2,000	2,000
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	9,678	9,439	9,439	9,439
Total Non-current Liabilities	12,225	11,439	11,439	11,439
Total Provisions	8	12	12	12
Total Liabilities	20,936	21,037	21,443	22,332
Shareholders Equity	13,673	15,590	18,425	21,023
Minority Interests
Total Equity	13,673	15,590	18,425	21,023

	Mar-24A	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	1.8%	8.6%	9.2%	8.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(9.0%)	2.3%	6.7%	11.9%
Operating EBITDA Margin	16.2%	15.3%	14.9%	15.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(37.23)	(13.76)	172.42	369.99
BVPS (Rs)	575.45	656.16	775.44	884.80
Gross Interest Cover	5.38	4.71	5.30	6.07
Effective Tax Rate	23.3%	27.3%	27.0%	27.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.7%	23.5%		17.9%
Accounts Receivables Days	45.28	46.47	46.70	45.51
Inventory Days	5.40	5.52	5.24	5.27
Accounts Payables Days	70.56	69.01	67.91	66.84
ROIC (%)	19.2%	18.3%	19.6%	24.2%
ROCE (%)	27.5%	22.9%	22.2%	22.2%
Return On Average Assets	11.3%	9.4%	9.5%	9.9%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg