InCred Equities - Blue Dart Express Ltd

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue (Rsm)	51,722	51,876	57,111	62,873
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	9,375	8,420	9,322	10,257
Net Profit (Rsm)	3,705	2,673	2,981	3,267
Core EPS (Rs)	155.9	112.5	125.5	137.5
Core EPS Growth	(9.4%)	(27.9%)	11.5%	9.6%
FD Core P/E (x)	47.31	65.58	58.80	53.66
DPS (Rs)	30.0	34.5	39.7	45.6
Dividend Yield	0.41%	0.47%	0.54%	0.62%
EV/EBITDA (x)	18.86	20.62	18.32	16.30
P/FCFE (x)	149.68	102.94	43.85	35.97
Net Gearing	13.1%	(12.4%)	(29.6%)	(46.9%)
P/BV (x)	14.86	13.00	11.43	10.13
ROE	36.1%	21.1%	20.7%	20.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Net Revenues	51,722	51,876	57,111	62,873
Gross Profit	21,367	21,494	24,215	27,232
Operating EBITDA	9,375	8,420	9,322	10,257
Depreciation And Amortisation	(3,945)	(4,304)	(4,913)	(5,493)
Operating EBIT	5,430	4,116	4,409	4,764
Financial Income/(Expense)	(669)	(776)	(679)	(679)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	320	321	354	389
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	5,082	3,662	4,084	4,475
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	5,082	3,662	4,084	4,475
Taxation	(1,377)	(989)	(1,103)	(1,208)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	3,705	2,673	2,981	3,267
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	3,705	2,673	2,981	3,267
Recurring Net Profit	3,705	2,673	2,981	3,267
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	3,705	2,673	2,981	3,267

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
EBITDA	9,375	8,420	9,322	10,257
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(689)	1,226	103	113
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense
Other Operating Cashflow
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(348)	(455)	(325)	(289)
Tax Paid	(1,377)	(989)	(1,103)	(1,208)
Cashflow From Operations	6,961	8,203	7,998	8,873
Capex	(6,655)	(4,000)	(4,000)	(4,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries	365
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Investing	(6,290)	(4,000)	(4,000)	(4,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	500	(2,500)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(854)	(982)	(1,130)	(1,299)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	(1,205)
Cash Flow From Financing	(1,559)	(3,482)	(1,130)	(1,299)
Total Cash Generated	(888)	721	2,868	3,574
Free Cashflow To Equity	1,171	1,703	3,998	4,873
Free Cashflow To Firm	1,340	4,979	4,676	5,552

(Rs mn)	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Total Cash And Equivalents	955	1,676	4,544	8,118
Total Debtors	6,367	6,744	7,424	8,174
Inventories	394	395	434	478
Total Other Current Assets	1,179	1,183	1,302	1,433
Total Current Assets	8,895	9,997	13,704	18,202
Fixed Assets	18,030	17,726	16,813	15,319
Total Investments	1,709	1,709	1,709	1,709
Intangible Assets	730	730	730	730
Total Other Non-Current Assets	2,868	2,868	2,868	2,868
Total Non-current Assets	23,336	23,032	22,119	20,625
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	5,851	7,069	7,782	8,567
Other Current Liabilities	1,878	2,269	2,498	2,750
Total Current Liabilities	7,729	9,338	10,280	11,317
Total Long-term Debt	2,500
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	10,178	10,178	10,178	10,178
Total Non-current Liabilities	12,678	10,178	10,178	10,178
Total Provisions	28	28	28	28
Total Liabilities	20,435	19,543	20,485	21,523
Shareholders Equity	11,796	13,486	15,338	17,305
Minority Interests
Total Equity	11,796	13,486	15,338	17,305

	Mar-23A	Mar-24F	Mar-25F	Mar-26F
Revenue Growth	17.3%	0.3%	10.1%	10.1%
Operating EBITDA Growth	(6.2%)	(10.2%)	10.7%	10.0%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.1%	16.2%	16.3%	16.3%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(65.02)	70.53	191.23	341.66
BVPS (Rs)	496.45	567.60	645.52	728.32
Gross Interest Cover	8.12	5.30	6.50	7.02
Effective Tax Rate	27.1%	27.0%	27.0%	27.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	19.2%	30.6%	31.6%	33.1%
Accounts Receivables Days	42.93	46.12	45.28	45.28
Inventory Days	4.47	4.73	4.60	4.67
Accounts Payables Days	70.04	77.60	82.39	83.71
ROIC (%)	31.9%	18.9%	21.7%	24.7%
ROCE (%)	43.4%	29.6%	30.6%	29.2%
Return On Average Assets	14.5%	10.6%	10.6%	10.6%

(91) 22 4161 1546 rajarshi.maitra@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg