InCred Equities - Bajaj Auto

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	500,103	555,056	632,764	702,002
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	100,988	110,668	126,599	141,590
Net Profit (Rsm)	79,402	91,947	104,897	117,335
Core EPS (Rs)	291.9	329.3	375.6	420.2
Core EPS Growth	10.4%	12.8%	14.1%	11.9%
FD Core P/E (x)	31.65	27.33	23.96	21.42
DPS (Rs)	210.0	230.0	220.0	230.0
Dividend Yield	2.33%	2.56%	2.94%	3.33%
EV/EBITDA (x)	21.94	19.68	16.95	14.96
P/FCFE (x)	37.76	42.69	30.94	31.13
Net Gearing	(79.5%)	(72.9%)	(72.8%)	(71.0%)
P/BV (x)	7.82	7.20	6.61	6.08
ROE	28.6%	27.4%	28.8%	29.6%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	500,103	555,056	632,764	702,002
Gross Profit	131,431	143,934	164,541	181,778
Operating EBITDA	100,988	110,668	126,599	141,590
Depreciation And Amortisation	(4,001)	(4,700)	(5,000)	(5,400)
Operating EBIT	96,987	105,968	121,599	136,190
Financial Income/(Expense)	(677)	(580)	(400)	(300)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	14,209	15,915	17,188	18,906
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	110,519	121,303	138,387	154,796
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	110,519	121,303	138,387	154,796
Taxation	(29,005)	(29,355)	(33,490)	(37,461)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	(2,113)
Profit After Tax	79,402	91,947	104,897	117,335
Minority Interests
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	79,402	91,947	104,897	117,335
Recurring Net Profit	81,514	91,947	104,897	117,335
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	81,514	91,947	104,897	117,335

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	100,988	110,668	126,599	141,590
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	2,349	(2,022)	6,022	(1,191)
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	(29,167)	11,969	(1,700)	(2,800)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	6,161
Other Operating Cashflow	(2,113)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	13,532	15,335	16,788	18,606
Tax Paid	(25,590)	(29,355)	(33,490)	(37,461)
Cashflow From Operations	66,160	106,594	114,219	118,745
Capex	(7,530)	(4,487)	(8,000)	(8,000)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	7,915	(43,160)	(25,000)	(30,000)
Cash Flow From Investing	385	(47,647)	(33,000)	(38,000)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	18	(76)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	1
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(58,645)	(64,230)	(74,004)	(83,778)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(58,626)	(64,306)	(74,004)	(83,778)
Total Cash Generated	7,919	(5,359)	7,215	(3,033)
Free Cashflow To Equity	66,563	58,871	81,219	80,745
Free Cashflow To Firm	67,222	59,527	81,619	81,045

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	256,968	255,610	277,825	294,791
Total Debtors	22,826	27,373	29,471	34,619
Inventories	19,579	21,290	26,004	28,849
Total Other Current Assets	47,106	27,000	30,000	34,000
Total Current Assets	346,479	331,272	363,300	392,260
Fixed Assets	31,277	35,577	38,577	41,177
Total Investments	42,020	81,180	91,180	101,180
Intangible Assets
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	73,296	116,756	129,756	142,356
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	62,676	66,911	79,746	86,548
Other Current Liabilities	25,122	17,000	18,000	19,000
Total Current Liabilities	87,798	83,911	97,746	105,548
Total Long-term Debt	1,276	1,200	1,200	1,200
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	1,276	1,200	1,200	1,200
Total Provisions	13,745	13,730	14,030	14,230
Total Liabilities	102,820	98,841	112,976	120,979
Shareholders Equity	321,469	349,187	380,080	413,638
Minority Interests
Total Equity	321,469	349,187	380,080	413,638

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	12.2%	11.0%	14.0%	10.9%
Operating EBITDA Growth	15.7%	9.6%	14.4%	11.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	20.2%	19.9%	20.0%	20.2%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	915.61	911.01	990.56	1,051.32
BVPS (Rs)	1,151.15	1,250.40	1,361.03	1,481.19
Gross Interest Cover	143.22	182.70	304.00	453.97
Effective Tax Rate	26.2%	24.2%	24.2%	24.2%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	71.9%	69.9%	70.5%	71.4%
Accounts Receivables Days	16.08	16.51	16.39	16.66
Inventory Days	18.09	18.14	18.43	19.24
Accounts Payables Days	58.80	57.52	57.16	58.34
ROIC (%)	7,244.1%	247.3%	342.6%	398.6%
ROCE (%)	37.8%	35.0%	36.8%	37.9%
Return On Average Assets	21.7%	21.3%	22.4%	22.9%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg