InCred Equities - UltraTech Cement Ltd

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue (Rsm)	709,081	736,984	838,833	944,174
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	129,686	126,543	158,512	197,887
Net Profit (Rsm)	71,490	62,867	82,826	111,192
Core EPS (Rs)	245.8	217.8	287.0	385.2
Core EPS Growth	40.1%	(11.4%)	31.8%	34.2%
FD Core P/E (x)	43.49	49.45	37.53	27.96
DPS (Rs)	70.0	54.5	71.7	96.3
Dividend Yield	0.78%	0.51%	0.67%
EV/EBITDA (x)	24.29	25.16	20.19	16.07
P/FCFE (x)	65.31	(1,016.57)	(132.91)	1,918.34
Net Gearing	6.7%	11.5%	12.9%	9.1%
P/BV (x)	5.16	4.81	4.42	3.98
ROE	12.4%	10.1%	12.3%	15.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Net Revenues	709,081	736,984	838,833	944,174
Gross Profit	709,081	736,984	838,833	944,174
Operating EBITDA	129,686	126,543	158,512	197,887
Depreciation And Amortisation	(31,453)	(36,171)	(40,511)	(45,778)
Operating EBIT	98,233	90,372	118,001	152,109
Financial Income/(Expense)	(9,680)	(12,390)	(13,382)	(9,367)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.	220	220	220	220
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	6,170	6,663	6,996	7,206
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	94,942	84,864	111,835	150,168
Exceptional Items	720
Pre-tax Profit	95,662	84,864	111,835	150,168
Taxation	(24,183)	(22,008)	(29,020)	(38,986)
Exceptional Income - post-tax
Profit After Tax	71,480	62,857	82,815	111,182
Minority Interests	10	10	10	10
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax
Net Profit	71,490	62,867	82,826	111,192
Recurring Net Profit	70,952	62,867	82,826	111,192
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	70,952	62,867	82,826	111,192

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
EBITDA	129,686	126,543	158,512	197,887
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	(3,372)	6,123	9,495	5,870
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	6,170	6,663	6,996	7,206
Other Operating Cashflow	(20,877)	(20,877)	(20,877)	(20,877)
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(9,680)	(12,390)	(13,382)	(9,367)
Tax Paid	16,505	(22,008)	(29,020)	(38,986)
Cashflow From Operations	118,431	84,054	111,724	141,732
Capex	(88,841)	(93,941)	(88,600)	(68,334)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	16,970	(36,171)	(40,511)	(45,778)
Cash Flow From Investing	(71,871)	(130,112)	(129,112)	(114,112)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	1,047	43,000	(6,000)	(26,000)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(825)	(3,452)	(4,475)	(33,727)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(24,351)	(18,939)	(24,951)	(33,496)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow	4,872	34,330	30,352	59,604
Cash Flow From Financing	(19,257)	54,939	(5,074)	(33,619)
Total Cash Generated	27,304	8,881	(22,461)	(5,999)
Free Cashflow To Equity	47,608	(3,058)	(23,387)	1,620
Free Cashflow To Firm	56,241	(33,668)	(4,006)	36,988

(Rs mn)	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Total Cash And Equivalents	62,680	71,561	49,099	43,101
Total Debtors	42,782	42,402	45,963	49,149
Inventories	83,297	82,785	89,629	98,298
Total Other Current Assets	42,825	39,797	43,619	47,209
Total Current Assets	231,584	236,544	228,311	237,756
Fixed Assets	565,321	657,262	744,862	812,196
Total Investments	27,642	27,642	27,642	27,642
Intangible Assets	131,567	131,567	131,567	131,567
Total Other Non-Current Assets	51,907	53,907	54,907	55,907
Total Non-current Assets	776,436	870,377	958,978	1,027,311
Short-term Debt	49,906	64,906	62,906	54,906
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	84,783	81,330	89,476	98,331
Other Current Liabilities	134,370	140,027	155,604	168,063
Total Current Liabilities	269,060	286,263	307,986	321,300
Total Long-term Debt	53,078	81,078	77,078	59,078
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities	83,049	93,049	98,049	103,049
Total Non-current Liabilities	136,126	174,126	175,126	162,126
Total Provisions
Total Liabilities	405,186	460,389	483,112	483,426
Shareholders Equity	602,275	645,973	703,617	781,082
Minority Interests	559	559	559	559
Total Equity	602,834	646,532	704,176	781,641

	Mar-24A	Mar-25F	Mar-26F	Mar-27F
Revenue Growth	12.1%	3.9%	13.8%	12.6%
Operating EBITDA Growth	22.1%	(2.4%)	25.3%	24.8%
Operating EBITDA Margin	18.3%	17.2%	18.9%	21.0%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(139.61)	(257.84)	(314.87)	(245.58)
BVPS (Rs)	2,086.23	2,237.99	2,437.70	2,706.08
Gross Interest Cover	10.15	7.29	8.82	16.24
Effective Tax Rate	25.3%	25.9%	25.9%	26.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	34.4%	25.0%	25.0%
Accounts Receivables Days	20.96	21.09	19.23	18.38
Inventory Days	(38.46)	(41.13)	(37.51)	(36.32)
Accounts Payables Days	49.41	49.66	45.82	45.93
ROIC (%)	14.1%	11.5%	13.6%	16.4%
ROCE (%)	14.6%	12.1%	14.4%	17.5%
Return On Average Assets	8.4%	7.1%	8.4%	9.8%

(91) 22 4161 1564 nishant.bagrecha@incredresearch.com

(91) 2241611558 saurabh.singh@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1561 rohan.kalle@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg