InCred Equities - Tata Motors

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue (Rsm)	4,422,980	5,019,098	5,829,015	6,586,700
Operating EBITDA (Rsm)	701,110	730,805	890,107	1,026,916
Net Profit (Rsm)	261,822	266,311	323,678	388,747
Core EPS (Rs)	67.7	72.4	88.0	105.6
Core EPS Growth	6.4%	6.9%	21.5%	20.1%
FD Core P/E (x)	10.05	9.88	8.13	6.77
DPS (Rs)	6.0	8.0	8.0
Dividend Yield	0.87%	1.16%
EV/EBITDA (x)	4.16	3.90	2.98	2.51
P/FCFE (x)	(96.27)	30.51	11.61	22.00
Net Gearing	17.6%	10.6%	(2.1%)	(5.3%)
P/BV (x)	2.27	1.88	1.57	1.30
ROE	24.8%	20.8%	21.0%	21.0%
% Change In Core EPS Estimates
InCred Research/Consensus EPS (x)

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Net Revenues	4,422,980	5,019,098	5,829,015	6,586,700
Gross Profit	1,733,470	1,888,644	2,223,612	2,528,058
Operating EBITDA	701,110	730,805	890,107	1,026,916
Depreciation And Amortisation	(339,980)	(360,174)	(425,604)	(471,039)
Operating EBIT	361,130	370,631	464,503	555,877
Financial Income/(Expense)	(69,230)	(40,679)	(37,437)	(34,125)
Pretax Income/(Loss) from Assoc.
Non-Operating Income/(Expense)	64,400	64,197	63,130	64,323
Profit Before Tax (pre-EI)	356,300	394,149	490,196	586,075
Exceptional Items
Pre-tax Profit	356,300	394,149	490,196	586,075
Taxation	(105,390)	(126,128)	(166,667)	(199,266)
Exceptional Income - post-tax	12,700
Profit After Tax	263,610	268,021	323,529	386,810
Minority Interests	(5,000)	(5,500)	(4,400)	(3,520)
Preferred Dividends
FX Gain/(Loss) - post tax
Other Adjustments - post-tax	3,212	3,790	4,548	5,458
Net Profit	261,822	266,311	323,678	388,747
Recurring Net Profit	249,122	266,311	323,678	388,747
Fully Diluted Recurring Net Profit	249,122	266,311	323,678	388,747

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
EBITDA	701,110	730,805	890,107	1,026,916
Cash Flow from Invt. & Assoc.
Change In Working Capital	76,126	(148,495)	3,563	11,016
(Incr)/Decr in Total Provisions	218,263	(131,192)		(195,000)
Other Non-Cash (Income)/Expense	64,487	3,760	2,000	2,000
Other Operating Cashflow	12,700
Net Interest (Paid)/Received	(4,830)	23,517	25,693	30,198
Tax Paid	(105,390)	(126,128)	(166,667)	(199,266)
Cashflow From Operations	962,465	352,268	754,696	675,865
Capex	(584,824)	(154,294)	(419,308)	(450,115)
Disposals Of FAs/subsidiaries
Acq. Of Subsidiaries/investments
Other Investing Cashflow	(45,062)	(106,799)	(103,841)	(101,172)
Cash Flow From Investing	(629,886)	(261,093)	(523,149)	(551,286)
Debt Raised/(repaid)	(359,922)	(4,911)	(4,911)	(4,911)
Proceeds From Issue Of Shares	(305)
Shares Repurchased
Dividends Paid	(22,080)	(29,440)	(40,480)	(51,520)
Preferred Dividends
Other Financing Cashflow
Cash Flow From Financing	(382,307)	(34,351)	(45,391)	(56,431)
Total Cash Generated	(49,727)	56,825	186,157	68,148
Free Cashflow To Equity	(27,342)	86,265	226,637	119,668
Free Cashflow To Firm	401,810	131,855	268,985	158,704

(Rs mn)	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Total Cash And Equivalents	408,340	465,165	651,322	719,469
Total Debtors	132,480	165,011	207,609	270,686
Inventories	472,690	577,540	606,856	721,830
Total Other Current Assets	596,180	630,000	685,000	720,000
Total Current Assets	1,609,690	1,837,716	2,150,787	2,431,986
Fixed Assets	1,553,760	1,600,200	1,593,904	1,572,980
Total Investments	463,792	563,792	663,792	763,792
Intangible Assets	8,950	8,450	7,950	7,450
Total Other Non-Current Assets
Total Non-current Assets	2,026,502	2,172,442	2,265,646	2,344,222
Short-term Debt
Current Portion of Long-Term Debt
Total Creditors	973,680	962,567	1,038,044	1,227,111
Other Current Liabilities	677,952	600,000	630,000	570,000
Total Current Liabilities	1,651,632	1,562,567	1,668,044	1,797,111
Total Long-term Debt	624,990	619,990	614,990	609,990
Hybrid Debt - Debt Component
Total Other Non-Current Liabilities
Total Non-current Liabilities	624,990	619,990	614,990	609,990
Total Provisions	384,350	368,690	395,690	297,690
Total Liabilities	2,660,972	2,551,247	2,678,724	2,704,791
Shareholders Equity	1,161,440	1,398,311	1,681,509	2,018,736
Minority Interests	66,100	60,600	56,200	52,680
Total Equity	1,227,540	1,458,911	1,737,709	2,071,416

	Mar-25A	Mar-26F	Mar-27F	Mar-28F
Revenue Growth	1.0%	13.5%	16.1%	13.0%
Operating EBITDA Growth	1.8%	4.2%	21.8%	15.4%
Operating EBITDA Margin	15.9%	14.6%	15.3%	15.6%
Net Cash Per Share (Rs)	(58.87)	(42.07)	9.87	29.75
BVPS (Rs)	315.61	379.98	456.93	548.57
Gross Interest Cover	5.22	9.11	12.41	16.29
Effective Tax Rate	29.6%	32.0%	34.0%	34.0%
Net Dividend Payout Ratio	9.2%	11.5%
Accounts Receivables Days	12.46	10.82	11.67	13.25
Inventory Days	64.50	61.23	59.95	59.75
Accounts Payables Days	129.84	112.88	101.27	101.85
ROIC (%)	23.4%	22.3%	21.9%	26.0%
ROCE (%)	19.0%	18.7%	20.8%	21.9%
Return On Average Assets	8.7%	7.8%	8.4%	9.0%

(91) 22 4161 1541 pramod.amthe@incredresearch.com

(91) 22 4161 1552 ravi.gupta@incredresearch.com

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Market Data

Source: Bloomberg